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Analysis-After another jumbo Fed hike, some investors see glimmers of hope

28 Tháng Bảy 2022
Analysis-After another jumbo Fed hike, some investors see glimmers of hope © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders react on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) as a screen shows Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell during a news conference following a Fed rate announcement, in New York City, U.S., July 27, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan

By Davide Barbuscia and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors are gauging whether the U.S. Federal Reserve has reached the peak of its aggressiveness in hiking rates, with some saying they're ready to up risky positions again.

The Fed delivered its second straight 75 basis point rate increase on Wednesday, but Chairman Jerome Powell suggested the central bank could slow the pace of its rate increases in coming months if there is evidence that tighter monetary policy is taming the worst U.S. inflation in four decades.

Plenty of investors believe inflation will prove tenacious and force the Fed to maintain a hawkish posture well into next year.

Others, however, are hoping that Wednesday’s comments may imply the end of market-bruising monetary tightening is finally in sight, amid evidence parts of the economy are slowing after the Fed raised rates by a total of 225 basis points.

"The Fed comments incrementally validate that we are a little bit comfortable with risk," said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital.

Fed funds futures, which reflect investor expectations of central bank policy rates, priced in a more dovish outlook shortly after Powell's comments. Chances that the Fed would deliver a 50-basis point hike in September – rather than a third 75 basis point increase - shot to 65%, from just under 51% on Tuesday.

Stocks extended their rally, with huge gains in tech and growth shares powering the Nasdaq to a 4.1% gain on Wednesday, its biggest daily percentage gain since April 2020. The benchmark S&P 500 is up nearly 10% from its mid-June low, after falling as much as 23.6% in the first half of the year.

Colin Graham, head of multi-asset strategies at asset manager Robeco, which oversees $228 billion in assets, said Wednesday’s meeting reinforced his bullish outlook and bolstered his confidence that policymakers will get inflation under control.

It was a sentiment echoed by Blackrock (NYSE:BLK)'s Rick Rieder, who in a statement said "it certainly seems like slowing down the pace of policy tightening would be possible given what we heard today". He expects a 50 basis point increase at the Fed's September meeting and "possibly one or two more 25 bps rate hikes" thereafter.

"I think the Fed has sort of caught up," said Van Hesser, Chief Strategist at KBRA. "They've convinced the markets that they understand the gravity of the situation, and have acted accordingly."

Of course, many investors are wary of calling a peak in Fed hawkishness, after a year in which inflation has repeatedly surprised markets and forced policymakers to ramp up their monetary tightening.

"We read Chair Powell’s press conference as more hawkish than the market’s interpretation," Citi’s analysts wrote, adding they see core inflation pushing the Fed to hike more aggressively than markets anticipate with a 75 basis point hike in September.

Doug Fincher, portfolio manager at Ionic Capital Management, believes inflation is far from subsiding and that the economy may enter a period of stagflation - a toxic combination of high inflation and slowing growth – if the Fed deviates from its hawkish path.

"The concern is that inflation is still going to be with us... and if inflation is endemic, you need to raise rates," said Fincher, who is looking to add Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, to his portfolio.

The Fed's latest hike has brought its benchmark overnight interest rate to a 2.25%-2.50% range, which Fed officials have indicated as a level that has a neutral economic impact.

With the Fed offering little specific guidance on what to expect next, economic data will continue being a key catalyst for market moves during the eight weeks until the Fed meets again, investors said.

Duffy of Penn Capital believes that is likely a healthy development.

"The markets are relieved because if we get some soft economic data, the Fed will probably relax their hikes a little bit," he said.

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13-08-2022 11:19:38 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0261

-0.0056 (-0.54%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0261

-0.0056 (-0.54%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

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GBP/USD

1.2135

-0.0076 (-0.63%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

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Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

133.46

+0.46 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

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Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.7121

+0.0016 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Buy (3)

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USD/CAD

1.2774

+0.0013 (+0.10%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

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EUR/JPY

136.93

-0.29 (-0.21%)

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Sell

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EUR/CHF

0.9659

-0.0046 (-0.48%)

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↑ Sell

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Gold Futures

1,818.40

+11.20 (+0.62%)

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↑ Buy

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Silver Futures

20.835

+0.486 (+2.39%)

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↑ Buy

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Copper Futures

3.6783

-0.0282 (-0.76%)

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↑ Buy

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

91.88

-2.46 (-2.61%)

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↑ Buy

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Brent Oil Futures

98.01

-1.59 (-1.60%)

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Buy

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Natural Gas Futures

8.780

-0.094 (-1.06%)

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↑ Buy

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US Coffee C Futures

227.53

+3.58 (+1.60%)

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↑ Buy

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,776.81

+19.76 (+0.53%)

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Sell

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S&P 500

4,280.15

+72.88 (+1.73%)

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↑ Buy

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DAX

13,795.85

+101.34 (+0.74%)

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Neutral

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FTSE 100

7,500.89

+34.98 (+0.47%)

Summary

Neutral

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Hang Seng

20,175.62

+93.19 (+0.46%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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US Small Cap 2000

2,013.09

+37.84 (+1.92%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

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IBEX 35

8,400.40

+20.40 (+0.24%)

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↑ Sell

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BASF SE NA O.N.

44.155

+0.730 (+1.68%)

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↑ Buy

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Bayer AG NA

54.15

+2.47 (+4.78%)

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181.08

+2.08 (+1.16%)

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Adidas AG

173.20

+1.18 (+0.69%)

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↑ Buy

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.588

+0.062 (+0.95%)

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111.84

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9.061

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 EUR/USD1.0261↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2135↑ Sell
 USD/JPY133.46↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7121↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2774↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY136.93Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9659↑ Sell
 Gold1,818.40↑ Buy
 Silver20.835↑ Buy
 Copper3.6783↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI91.88↑ Buy
 Brent Oil98.01Buy
 Natural Gas8.780↑ Buy
 US Coffee C227.53↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,776.81Sell
 S&P 5004,280.15↑ Buy
 DAX13,795.85Neutral
 FTSE 1007,500.89Neutral
 Hang Seng20,175.62↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,013.09↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,400.40↑ Sell
 BASF44.155↑ Buy
 Bayer54.15↑ Buy
 Allianz181.08↑ Sell
 Adidas173.20↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.588↑ Sell
 Siemens AG111.84↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG9.061↑ Buy
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,720
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