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Analysis-Airlines face hurdles to cashing in on China re-opening

By Allison Lampert, Jamie Freed and Doyinsola Oladipo (Reuters) - U.S. and European airlines will benefit from pent-up demand for travel to China after its recent border...
Analysis-Airlines face hurdles to cashing in on China re-opening © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Travellers wearing face masks following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak line up at check-in counters of Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport as the Spring Festival travel season begins ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, in Sha
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By Allison Lampert, Jamie Freed and Doyinsola Oladipo

(Reuters) - U.S. and European airlines will benefit from pent-up demand for travel to China after its recent border reopening, but route approvals, fresh COVID-19 testing rules and not enough large aircraft remain barriers to rising sales, analysts and industry officials say.

Travel is returning to China, the world's largest outbound tourism market worth $255 billion in 2019, after the country ended mandatory quarantines on Jan. 8. Airfares from China are now 160% higher than before the pandemic, data from travel firm ForwardKeys shows, due to limited supply.

Iowa-based lawyer Jinying Zhan, 50, said he paid $1,600 for a one-way ticket in December to fly via Chicago and Dubai to Guangzhou.

"I haven't visited my family in three years, so I will go to the spring festival with my sisters," he said. "Flights were very expensive." Before the pandemic, he used to pay $1,000 to $1,500 for a round trip direct flight from Chicago.

A round-trip fare from San Francisco to Shanghai on United Airlines for a week-long trip in early March costs $3,852 in economy class and $18,369 in business class, according to a Reuters search on the airline's website.

Global airlines are running only 11% of 2019 capacity levels to and from China in January, Cirium data shows, but the figure is expected to hit 25% by April.

Booking (NASDAQ:BKNG) website Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) said it saw U.S.-China and Europe-China searches double after the reopening announcement.

Chinese airlines, with ample staff and widebody planes, and a cost and time advantage of roughly two hours from flying a more direct route using Russian airspace, are expected to be early winners.

But U.S. and European airlines, which have focused traditionally on the strong business travel market to China, and often cater more to the preferences of Western passengers, are poised to benefit from companies willing to pay a premium to rekindle face-to-face ties.

Trips to China "are already on the books for many companies and travellers as they kick off a new business year," said Suzanne Neufang, chief executive of the Global Business Travel Association.

APPROVALS NEEDED

China's reopening comes as surging COVID infections have led the United States, Japan and others to require negative coronavirus tests from Chinese arrivals, discouraging travel.

Since regulatory approval from both countries is required to add flights, at a time of U.S.-China trade tensions, short-term capacity could be limited, industry sources said.

United, which had 584 flights to and from China in January 2019 according to Cirium, can now fly four times weekly from the U.S. to mainland China. United said it could add services pending government authorizations.

Since Jan. 4, Air China (OTC:AIRYY), Hainan Airlines and China Southern Airlines have filed schedules with the U.S. Department of Transportation proposing to increase flights to as much as daily on some routes.

"There are some things brewing," said U.S. Deputy Transportation Secretary Polly Trottenberg, but gave no further details on U.S. carriers adding more Chinese flights.

Foreign carriers seeking to add flights to China require approvals from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, which did not respond to a request for comment.

American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) said this week it would fly non-stop from Dallas to Shanghai twice-weekly from March, dropping a current stop in Seoul. However, other flights were paused as it assessed market demand and government regulations.

Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) expects to cautiously "rebuild capacity to China in line with demand starting later this year," President Glen Hauenstein said when the company reported quarterly results.

China, which accounted for about 5% to 6% of long-haul travel from Europe in 2019, is also a key market for some European carriers including Germany's Lufthansa, Bernstein analyst Alex Irving said.

But European and U.S. carriers may prioritize their widebody planes for lucrative trans-Atlantic travel this summer, leaving them stretched to accommodate fresh demand for China, said George Dimitroff, an analyst with Cirium.

Many Western airlines parked large planes when international traffic plunged and production of new twin-aisle jets has been limited.

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27-01-2023 22:41:38 (UTC+7)

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    EUR/USD 1.0854 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2370 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 129.88 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.7105 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3321 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 140.96 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 1.0019 Neutral  
    Gold 1,924.50 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 23.610 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.2183 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.19 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 87.74 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 2.825 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 168.60 Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,175.65 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,066.42 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 15,141.95 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,759.77 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 22,688.90 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,901.80 Neutral  
    IBEX 35 9,047.31 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 52.685 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 56.31 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 221.38 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 148.09 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 9.743 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 144.25 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.308 ↑ Sell  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,720/ 6,820
(30/ 30) # 1,331
SJC HCM6,750/ 6,850
(60/ 60) # 1,361
SJC Hanoi6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
SJC Danang6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
SJC Nhatrang6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
SJC Cantho6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
Cập nhật 27-01-2023 22:41:40
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,925.76 -4.81 -0.25%
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Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.01023.470
RON 95-III22.15022.590
E5 RON 92-II21.35021.770
DO 0.05S21.63022.060
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Dầu hỏa 2-K21.80022.230
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WTI $81.48 -0.24 -0.29%
Brent $87.73 -0.36 -0.41%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.260,0023.630,00
EUR24.857,5526.249,47
GBP28.270,1829.475,66
JPY175,71186,02
KRW16,4320,02
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:25 27/01/2023
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