net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Analysis-Blown off course again, Fed policymakers see near-record uncertainty

17 Tháng Sáu 2022
Analysis-Blown off course again, Fed policymakers see near-record uncertainty © Reuters. U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell departs after facing reporters at a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Washington, U.S., June 15, 2022. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

By Ann Saphir and Lindsay (NYSE:LNN) Dunsmuir

(Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers are less confident than at any time since the height of the pandemic about what will happen with the economy, data published alongside their forecasts and the Fed's hefty three-quarters-of-a-point rate hike this week show.

The last time they were this worried they could be underestimating the coming deterioration in the labor market was in the depths of the Great Recession. But they are even more worried they are overestimating a hoped-for decline in inflation, documents https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20220615.htm charting confidence and risks seen in their forecasts show.

The data helps underscore why policymakers are so focused on raising interest rates fast even if doing so causes a bigger dent to growth and unemployment than previously hoped, and why it is clarity on the inflation outlook that will drive policy.

"It is clear that path of inflation continues to be the key consideration in how quickly the Fed gets to, and how far it moves past, the range of neutral in order to bring inflation down 'clearly and convincingly,'" wrote Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) economists, referring to the standard Fed Chair Jerome Powell has set for declaring victory on price pressures and slowing up on rate hikes.

All 18 Fed policymakers are more-than-usually uncertain about their inflation and economic growth forecasts, and all but one note the same about their unemployment rate projections, the data shows. The same documents also show that no policymaker believes their forecasts are too pessimistic, and most believe they could be underestimating the risks.

That means that though Fed forecasts embody the "softish" landing to which they aspire - inflation dropping to 2.2% by 2024, with the economy motoring along at 1.9% and unemployment rising just half a point to 4.1% - they are worried things could be worse, particularly for inflation.

It also means, as with this week's last-minute decision to deliver a hefty 75 basis point move after worse-than-expected inflation readings, that what Powell calls this "extraordinarily challenging and uncertain time" is sure to leave investors hanging.

RAPID PACE OF RATE INCREASES

Unquestionably, interest rates will rise, and rise fast: 17 of the 18 Fed policymakers see the target rate at least at 3.6% by next year, two full percentage points higher than today, and five see it above 4%.

But is that where they will end up? Not even Fed Chair Powell knows. "I think we'll know when we get there," Powell told reporters Wednesday.

"With the FOMC looking to remain nimble amid heightened uncertainty, guidance set out by communications should not be regarded as written in stone," Barclays (LON:BARC) economists said in a note to clients following the this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

It's a warning that investors may need to keep in mind as Powell's colleagues start Friday to make their first public statements after this week's policy meeting, and when Powell gives testimony next week before lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
27-06-2022 05:40:28 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0559

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0559

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2282

+0.0019 (+0.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

USD/JPY

135.13

-0.04 (-0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6950

+0.0002 (+0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.2892

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

142.69

+0.03 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0110

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Gold Futures

1,836.25

+8.15 (+0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

21.262

+0.103 (+0.49%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.7822

+0.0377 (+1.01%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

106.69

-0.37 (-0.35%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

108.17

-0.93 (-0.85%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

Natural Gas Futures

6.260

-0.021 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

223.40

-5.60 (-2.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,533.17

+96.88 (+2.82%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

S&P 500

3,911.74

+116.01 (+3.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,118.13

+205.54 (+1.59%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,208.81

+188.36 (+2.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

21,719.06

+445.19 (+2.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,765.74

+54.06 (+3.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,244.10

+137.70 (+1.70%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.215

+0.785 (+1.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

57.79

-0.75 (-1.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.20

+2.20 (+1.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

170.36

+3.30 (+1.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.966

-0.310 (-4.94%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

102.62

+3.36 (+3.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.919

+0.407 (+4.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0559↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2282↑ Sell
 USD/JPY135.13↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6950Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2892↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY142.69↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0110↑ Sell
 Gold1,836.25↑ Buy
 Silver21.262↑ Buy
 Copper3.7822Sell
 Crude Oil WTI106.69↑ Buy
 Brent Oil108.17Buy
 Natural Gas6.260↑ Buy
 US Coffee C223.40↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,533.17Neutral
 S&P 5003,911.74↑ Buy
 DAX13,118.13↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,208.81↑ Buy
 Hang Seng21,719.06↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,765.74↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,244.10Sell
 BASF42.215↑ Buy
 Bayer57.79↑ Sell
 Allianz181.20↑ Sell
 Adidas170.36↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.966↑ Sell
 Siemens AG102.62↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.919↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,760/ 6,840
(6,760/ 6,840) # 1,696
SJC HCM6,785/ 6,865
(0/ 0) # 1,716
SJC Hanoi6,785/ 6,867
(0/ 0) # 1,718
SJC Danang6,785/ 6,867
(0/ 0) # 1,718
SJC Nhatrang6,785/ 6,867
(0/ 0) # 1,718
SJC Cantho6,785/ 6,867
(0/ 0) # 1,718
Cập nhật 27-06-2022 05:40:30
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,833.81+6.530.36%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V33.47034.130
RON 95-III32.87033.520
E5 RON 92-II31.30031.920
DO 0.05S30.01030.610
DO 0,001S-V30.81031.420
Dầu hỏa 2-K28.78029.350
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$106.71+0.840.78%
Brent$109.81+3.262.97%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.080,0023.390,00
EUR23.828,4125.163,09
GBP27.747,3328.930,97
JPY167,31177,13
KRW15,4518,82
Cập nhật lúc 18:52:30 26/06/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán