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Analysis-Bond traders get their swagger back in rate-obsessed markets

17 Tháng Giêng 2023
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By Lananh Nguyen

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bond traders are stars again on Wall Street.

Fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) traders bolstered bank profits last year despite dreary deal markets. And traders who have navigated renewed market volatility are set to extend their winning streak, senior bankers told Reuters.

At Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), FICC revenue jumped 49% to $2.3 billion, lifting the trading division's full-year revenue to the highest since 2010, the bank's earnings report on Friday showed. At Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), revenue from fixed income surged 31% to $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter, while at JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) it climbed 12% to $3.7 billion.

"Everybody's a macro trader now," said Jim DeMare, president of Bank of America's global markets division, referring to investors who bet on assets influenced by economic trends.

"Everybody wants to talk about inflation, everybody wants to talk about central bank policy," said DeMare, who formerly worked at Salomon Brothers, the legendary bond shop featured in Michael Lewis' 1989 classic book, "Liar's Poker."

FICC traders are enjoying a renaissance after years in the doldrums. In a throwback to the 1970s inflation is roiling economies again. Protectionism is back. And economic data sends a buzz through trading rooms, minus the shouting of previous eras. "Another strong performance in trading helped make up for the industry-wide decline of investment banking activity," JPMorgan President Daniel Pinto wrote in a note to employees. The bank's markets division posted its second-highest annual revenue on Friday.

Bond specialists in the $22 trillion Treasuries market are in high demand as the Federal Reserve and other central banks have aggressively raised interest rates over the past two years. The traders expect to stay busy as growth slows, the pandemic recedes, fighting continues in Ukraine, and U.S.-China tensions simmer.

Their comeback coincides with economic policy makers dusting off their pre-2008 playbooks. After the financial crisis, central bankers in the United States and advanced economies steadied markets by holding interest rates near zero. But when the pandemic hit, they ramped up stimulus to avoid economic disaster. The reversal of those policies has roiled markets.

"There has been no shortage of extraordinary, once-in-a-generation-type events, responses and implications,"said Ashok Varadhan, co-head of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS)' newly merged global banking and markets division in New York. "That's been a catalyst for activity and opportunity" for clients, he said.

Goldman will report earnings later Tuesday.

The S&P 500 stock index fell 19.4% last year, when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 3.8%, while the dollar rose 7.9% against major currencies.

On Tradeweb Markets (NASDAQ:TW) Inc's electronic bond trading platforms, average daily volumes rose almost 10% in 2022.

"This is the type of market where that old-school fixed income skill set comes into play more than ever," said Billy Hult, who became chief executive this month. Hult gives the company's interns copies of "Liar's Poker" to press his point.

Michael de Pass, head of rates trading at Citadel Securities, sees volatility and activity remaining elevated with participants laser-focused on U.S. inflation data. That has usurped the monthly jobs report as Wall Street's most-watched economic indicator, he said. Citadel Securities will expand into inflation swaps in 2023.

At Jefferies Financial Group Inc, fourth-quarter bond-trading revenue jumped 71%.

"There's money to be made in fixed income again" for bond investors, said Jefferies President Brian Friedman. "Before it was the search for yield; now it's a choice of yield." Fed officials on Thursday expressed relief that inflation eased in December, paving the way for a possible step down to a quarter point interest rate increase when they meet Jan. 31. Markets are watching the Fed closely for signals.

"If you went to any one of our traders right now in any asset class – equities, mortgages, commodities - they would tell you they are trading U.S. interest rates," said Troy Rohrbaugh, global head of markets at JPMorgan, who traded currency options earlier in his career.

"Volumes remained elevated for much of 2022, and investors have been looking for an indication of when inflation is going to turn. When it does, I would expect their risk appetite to immediately increase," Rohrbaugh said.

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30-09-2023 03:08:58 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0572

+0.0013 (+0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0572

+0.0013 (+0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2202

+0.0005 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

149.45

+0.15 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6431

+0.0008 (+0.13%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3582

+0.0096 (+0.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

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Buy (7)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

158.00

+0.25 (+0.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9679

+0.0012 (+0.12%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (2)

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Sell (8)

Gold Futures

1,863.95

-14.65 (-0.78%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (1)

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Silver Futures

22.358

-0.383 (-1.68%)

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Copper Futures

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Brent Oil Futures

92.29

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Natural Gas Futures

2.939

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US Coffee C Futures

145.23

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Sell (12)

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Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,173.35

+11.79 (+0.28%)

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↑ Sell

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S&P 500

4,289.63

-10.07 (-0.23%)

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DAX

15,386.58

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FTSE 100

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Sell (12)

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Sell (9)

Hang Seng

17,822.00

+471.00 (+2.71%)

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Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,781.00

-13.31 (-0.74%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

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Buy (2)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

9,428.00

+1.20 (+0.01%)

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Sell (10)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.950

+0.305 (+0.72%)

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↑ Sell

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Bayer AG NA

45.45

+0.10 (+0.22%)

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225.70

-2.85 (-1.25%)

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Adidas AG

166.62

+9.76 (+6.22%)

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Sell (12)

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Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.506

-0.023 (-0.31%)

Summary

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Siemens AG Class N

135.66

+0.08 (+0.06%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

10.450

+0.068 (+0.65%)

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Buy (2)

Sell (6)

    EUR/USD 1.0572 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.2202 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 149.45 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6431 Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3582 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 158.00 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9679 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,863.95 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 22.358 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.7315 Neutral  
    Crude Oil WTI 90.91 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 92.29 Buy  
    Natural Gas 2.939 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 145.23 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,173.35 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 4,289.63 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 15,386.58 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,608.08 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,822.00 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,781.00 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,428.00 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 42.950 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 45.45 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 225.70 Sell  
    Adidas 166.62 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 7.506 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 135.66 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.450 ↑ Sell  
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SJC Eximbank6,830/ 6,880
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