net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Analysis-Hint of a Fed pause opens door to Asia's emerging markets

28 Tháng Bảy 2022
Analysis-Hint of a Fed pause opens door to Asia's emerging markets © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A teller counts Indonesian rupiah notes for a customer at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, August 26, 2015. Indonesia's central bank has urged exporters and businesses not to hoard foreign currency as part of its effort to maintain finan

By Rae Wee and Harish Sridharan

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - As the United States pushes ahead with its steepest interest rate hikes in a generation, investors are unusually poised to buy in Asia's emerging markets, betting authorities can tame inflation without triggering the capital-flight chaos of previous cycles.

While no rally is underway, steadying currency, debt and equity markets suggest investors may have already stopped rushing for the exits.

Beaten-down currencies such as South Korea's won and the Malaysian ringgit rallied on Thursday, and stock and bond markets in Seoul, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and Manila responded positively to the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike. [EMRG/FRX]

The Fed, which met market expectations with a 75 basis point (bp) rise overnight, has now lifted rates by a total of 150 bps in two meetings - the fastest pace since the early 1980s.

The target window for the benchmark funds' rate is at its mid-2019 level of 2.25% to 2.5%.

But chair Jerome Powell noted slowing spending and production and foreshadowed an eventual slowdown in hikes. Traders have taken the remarks as confirmation that a peak in U.S. interest rates is near and, with it, a top for the dollar and a trough for despair.

"These days emerging market currencies, especially Asian currencies, have been - from my point of view - oversold," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"Looking at the rising U.S. equity market and the less-hawkish communication by Powell, this is supporting Asian currencies and other emerging market (EM) currencies, and the recovery of EM should continue."

Bellwether markets in South Korea and Indonesia are showing signs that the worst may be over. Rather than collapsing, benchmark 10-year bonds in Indonesia have held up relatively well: the yield premium over Treasuries has actually narrowed this year..

South Korea's won, which has been battered by equity outflows on expectations that the country's growth-exposed heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing sectors will suffer as conditions tighten, has also paused for breath. (KS)

Having dropped nearly 9% for the year so far, the won was heading for its best onshore session in nearly a month on Thursday and has lifted about 2% from mid-July's 13-year low.

"In six to 12 months time, when inflation comes off globally and Fed tightening slows, that might benefit the won," said Bank of Singapore strategist Moh Siong Sim.

WAITING GAME

The moves are a far cry from the outset of the last Fed tightening cycle in 2013, when India and Indonesia were counted among the so-called "fragile five" emerging market countries, with assets on the front line of vulnerability to rising U.S. rates.

Indonesian stocks are set for their best month since April, since they are on course at least not to fall again, and the rupiah currency has dropped only 5% this year, even as the greenback's strength has lifted the U.S. dollar index by about 11%.

In 2013, by contrast, Indonesia's currency fell 21%, the 10-year yield soared 330 bps and stocks were flat as world equity markets rallied.

"What we've been pleasantly surprised with so far is that this time round the Asian markets have actually held up relatively well given the pressure that they've been under," said Thu Ha Chow, head of fixed income for Asia at Dutch asset manager Robeco.

"We're obviously waiting, like everybody else, for earnings ... but high-quality corporates have been relatively stable."

Risks abound, of course - especially as some central banks, notably in Thailand and Indonesia, are being slow to follow in the Fed in raising interest rates.

Neither country has lifted policy rates from pandemic lows, inviting downward pressure on their currencies that could in turn exacerbate inflation and outflows. Investors expect both to move soon, however.

"When the tide runs out and you're still not doing the right thing and raising rates, then all bets are off," said Howe Chung Wan, head of Asia fixed income at Principal Global Investors in Singapore, regarding Indonesia.

He expects inflation can breach Bank Indonesia's target band this year and force an interest rate rise sooner than policymakers intend. But, he added, if that happens in a market convinced that global inflation can be tamed, then investors will find confidence.

"This is where the EM investors are going to be, when we clear out on the Fed, when we think inflation is peaking, this is where we want to be."

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
12-08-2022 17:12:30 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0290

-0.0027 (-0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

1.0290

-0.0027 (-0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.2134

-0.0078 (-0.64%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

133.43

+0.43 (+0.32%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

AUD/USD

0.7100

-0.0004 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

USD/CAD

1.2766

+0.0005 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

137.29

+0.07 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/CHF

0.9701

-0.0003 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Gold Futures

1,801.60

-5.60 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Silver Futures

20.223

-0.126 (-0.62%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

3.6740

-0.0325 (-0.88%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

94.34

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Brent Oil Futures

99.92

+0.32 (+0.32%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Natural Gas Futures

8.639

-0.235 (-2.65%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

US Coffee C Futures

222.25

-1.70 (-0.76%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,767.05

+10.00 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

S&P 500

4,207.27

-2.97 (-0.07%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

DAX

13,757.80

+63.29 (+0.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,492.57

+26.66 (+0.36%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

Hang Seng

20,175.62

+93.19 (+0.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,975.26

+6.01 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,434.73

+54.73 (+0.65%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

44.153

+0.728 (+1.68%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Bayer AG NA

53.53

+1.85 (+3.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.44

+2.44 (+1.36%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Adidas AG

171.26

-0.76 (-0.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.574

+0.048 (+0.74%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Siemens AG Class N

111.94

+2.02 (+1.84%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.023

+0.159 (+1.79%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0290↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2134↑ Sell
 USD/JPY133.43Neutral
 AUD/USD0.7100↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2766↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY137.29↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9701↑ Sell
 Gold1,801.60↑ Sell
 Silver20.223↑ Sell
 Copper3.6740↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI94.34↑ Sell
 Brent Oil99.92↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.639↑ Sell
 US Coffee C222.25↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,767.05↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,207.27Buy
 DAX13,757.80↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,492.57↑ Sell
 Hang Seng20,175.62↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,975.26↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,434.73↑ Sell
 BASF44.153↑ Sell
 Bayer53.53↑ Sell
 Allianz181.44↑ Sell
 Adidas171.26↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.574Sell
 Siemens AG111.94Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG9.023↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,720
(10/ 10) # 1,656
SJC HCM6,630/ 6,730
(10/ 10) # 1,666
SJC Hanoi6,630/ 6,732
(10/ 10) # 1,668
SJC Danang6,630/ 6,732
(10/ 10) # 1,668
SJC Nhatrang6,630/ 6,732
(10/ 10) # 1,668
SJC Cantho6,630/ 6,732
(10/ 10) # 1,668
Cập nhật 12-08-2022 17:12:32
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,787.53-1.63-0.09%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
DO 0,001S-V24.88025.370
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$93.72-0.35-0.37%
Brent$99.20-0.6-0.60%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.220,0023.530,00
EUR23.498,0024.813,92
GBP27.761,8728.945,83
JPY170,70180,72
KRW15,5018,89
Cập nhật lúc 17:05:10 12/08/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán