net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Analysis-Investors left scratching heads as ECB bosses spar on outlook

26 Tháng Mười Một 2022
Analysis-Investors left scratching heads as ECB bosses spar on outlook © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A woman walks past the European Central Bank (ECB) headquarter as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues during an extended lockdown and a demand by the German government for more home office possibilities in Frankfurt, Ger

By Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's top economic thinkers are sparring over the outlook for inflation and rates, leaving investors scratching their heads over the ECB's next policy moves.

Philip Lane and Isabel Schnabel, who lead the economic debate on the ECB's board, gave contrasting views this week on whether the euro zone central bank should scale down its interest rate increases and even on how to measure inflation.

Lane, the ECB's chief economist, whose view is that record price growth will start to subside next year, said many arguments for another 75-basis-point rate hike were "no longer there".

The sequential economic shocks of the COVID pandemic and energy price spike meant current inflation readings should be taken with a pinch of salt because projections show a rapid decline, he added.

Schnabel meanwhile pushed back on the notion of smaller rate hikes and took a jab at economic projections, emphasising that the longer inflation was allowed to remain high, the greater the risk that it would take root.

They were also at odds on the prospect for wages, which Lane said should be "closely monitor(ed)" for any sign of an undue acceleration while Schnabel called on the ECB to "prevent a wage price spiral" before it even happens, given that wages are moving up "up relatively quickly".

Their apparent disagreement added to investor uncertainty about the size of the ECB's next interest rate hike, expected in less than three weeks' time, and on where borrowing costs may eventually peak.

Market betting has been swinging between a 50- and a 75- basis-point increase when policymakers meet on Dec. 15.

"It's extremely exciting but predicting the ECB for a market participant has become impossible," Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said.

DEEP UNCERTAINTY

The ECB surprised markets with larger-than-expected rate increases in July and September and has since said it would not provide any guidance about future moves but be "data-dependent".

That saves it from more painful changes of tack after ECB President Christine Lagarde went from all but ruling-out rate hikes this year to presiding over the steepest tightening cycle in the euro's history.

Danske Bank economist Piet Christiansen said the December meeting will ultimately come down to November's underlying inflation data, due out on Nov. 30.

"The hawks have been in the driver's seat all year and it will come down to the November inflation print," Christiansen said. "If core inflation is higher - to me core is more significant - then the doves will have a difficult time arguing for a slowdown.

The public divergence also deals another blow to Lagarde's aim of bringing concord among the 25 members of the Governing Council after a fractious end to the tenure of her predecessor, Mario Draghi.

Unlike in Draghi's time, where the six-person Executive Board was mostly united behind a sometimes domineering president, now the people who run the ECB are often at odds too.

Schnabel and Vice President Luis de Guindos have emphasised core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, as a key metric to watch.

But Lane said in a blog post on Friday it may "overstate" how persistent inflation may be.

Fellow board member Fabio Panetta has fought a long and largely lonely fight to get the ECB to take a gentler rate-hiking path, recently receiving support from several members of the Governing Council.

"Madame Lagarde was so keen to get the team spirit together and now even her own ECB colleagues are keen to get this fight out in the open," ING's Brzeski said.

The ECB is not alone in this, with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell perceived to be more "hawkish" than his deputy, Lael Brainard, in their public communication.

Dirk Schumacher, an economist at Natixis, found a public debate healthy but thought ECB policymakers were "bluffing" when they hinted at a peak rate of around 3%.

He estimated the ECB would need to be discussing a 5% rate if it single-handedly wanted to bring down inflation to 2%, but that this would cause too deep an economic recession.

"There's an element of bluffing there because they know they also need to be lucky," Schumacher said.

"Inflation is being driven by factors they can't control," he added, citing energy prices, geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruptions as some of them.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
06-12-2022 01:33:43 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0504

-0.0034 (-0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0504

-0.0034 (-0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2195

-0.0092 (-0.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

136.57

+2.28 (+1.69%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6714

-0.0076 (-1.11%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3572

+0.0104 (+0.78%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

143.46

+1.93 (+1.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9892

+0.0021 (+0.21%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,781.45

-28.15 (-1.56%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Silver Futures

22.425

-0.825 (-3.55%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Copper Futures

3.7942

-0.0563 (-1.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

77.90

-2.08 (-2.60%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Brent Oil Futures

83.58

-1.99 (-2.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Natural Gas Futures

5.631

-0.650 (-10.35%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

US Coffee C Futures

163.42

+0.82 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,956.53

-21.37 (-0.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

S&P 500

4,008.00

-63.70 (-1.56%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

DAX

14,447.61

-81.78 (-0.56%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,567.54

+11.31 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Hang Seng

19,518.29

+842.94 (+4.51%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,837.60

-52.38 (-2.77%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

8,370.10

-7.80 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

BASF SE NA O.N.

47.970

-0.760 (-1.56%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Bayer AG NA

53.09

-1.75 (-3.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

203.00

+0.35 (+0.17%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

Adidas AG

122.06

-2.20 (-1.77%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.766

+0.028 (+0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Siemens AG Class N

135.44

+0.74 (+0.55%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.150

+0.126 (+1.26%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

 EUR/USD1.0504↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2195↑ Buy
 USD/JPY136.57Neutral
 AUD/USD0.6714Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3572Neutral
 EUR/JPY143.46↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9892Neutral
 Gold1,781.45Sell
 Silver22.425Sell
 Copper3.7942↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI77.90Buy
 Brent Oil83.58↑ Sell
 Natural Gas5.631↑ Sell
 US Coffee C163.42↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,956.53↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,008.00↑ Buy
 DAX14,447.61↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,567.54↑ Sell
 Hang Seng19,518.29Buy
 Small Cap 20001,837.60↑ Sell
 IBEX 358,370.10↑ Sell
 BASF47.970Sell
 Bayer53.09↑ Buy
 Allianz203.00Buy
 Adidas122.06↑ Sell
 Lufthansa7.766↑ Buy
 Siemens AG135.44↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.150Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,610/ 6,680
(0/ 0) # 1,473
SJC HCM6,625/ 6,705
(0/ 0) # 1,500
SJC Hanoi6,625/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,502
SJC Danang6,625/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,502
SJC Nhatrang6,625/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,502
SJC Cantho6,625/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,502
Cập nhật 06-12-2022 01:33:46
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,768.35-30.5-1.70%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.83024.300
RON 95-III22.70023.150
E5 RON 92-II21.67022.100
DO 0.05S23.21023.670
DO 0,001S-V25.19025.690
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.56024.030
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$77.92+3.233.98%
Brent$83.49+3.263.76%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.760,0024.070,00
EUR24.574,8925.950,11
GBP28.594,5429.812,86
JPY172,03182,11
KRW15,9819,47
Cập nhật lúc 18:53:14 05/12/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán