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Analysis-Political gridlock may help U.S. stocks but inflation still in driver's seat

17 Tháng Mười Một 2022
Analysis-Political gridlock may help U.S. stocks but inflation still in driver's seat © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Wall Street entrance to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is seen in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
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By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Split control of the U.S. Congress following the midterm elections may provide a tailwind for stocks at the end of a bruising year, but inflation and the Federal Reserve are likely to remain the market’s main drivers, investors said.

Republicans were projected to win a majority in the House of Representatives on Wednesday, setting the stage for two years of divided government as President Joe Biden's Democratic Party maintains control of the Senate.

"For the economy and markets it is policy that drives outcomes, rather than politics," said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. A split government "makes major policy changes unlikely, and that stability in policy tends to be reassuring for investors."

Historically, stocks have done better under a split government when a Democrat is in the White House: Average annual S&P 500 returns have been 14% in a split Congress under a Democratic president, according to data since 1932 analyzed by RBC Capital Markets. That compares with 10% when Democrats controlled the presidency and Congress.

On a sector basis, a Democrat-led Senate may prove favorable for utilities, consumer discretionary and health care, as well as clean energy, wrote John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica (NYSE:CMA) Wealth Management, in a note published Tuesday.

Sectors whose recent performance may have been helped by expectations of a stronger showing by Republicans, including energy, biotech, financials and defense, may take a breather as investors reassess the degree of fiscal and regulatory advantages going forward, Lynch said.

A split government could stymie Democrats from pushing through several large fiscal packages, including $369 billion in spending on climate and energy policies and enacting a windfall tax on oil and gas companies, analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management wrote earlier this month.

Some worried that such spending could help buoy inflation at a time when the Fed has ramped up its monetary tightening to bring down consumer prices from their highest levels in decades.

On the other hand, gridlock comes with its own set of risks, including a possible standoff over raising the U.S. debt limit next year that could disrupt the economy at a point when Fed rates may still be at their peak.

While a split Congress may lessen the risks of a bruising debt ceiling fight, "We will sleep with one eye open," said Goodwin, of New York Life Investments.

Still, macroeconomic concerns and monetary policy have driven markets all year, and investors believe that trend is unlikely to change anytime soon.

The S&P 500 is up more than 10% from its October low, with cooler-than-forecast inflation data last week and Tuesday’s producer price index results boosting hopes that the Fed could temper its rate hikes sooner than expected. The index is still down nearly 17% this year as of Wednesday's close.

"Inflation matters more than anything else right now," said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird.

Indeed, fund managers polled from Nov. 4-10 in the latest survey from BofA Global Research cited inflation staying high as the market's top "tail risk."

Some investors are also counting on stocks to get a boost from seasonal trading patterns: November and December have tallied the second- and third-biggest average monthly percentage gains for the S&P 500 since 1950, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Much of that seasonality boost, however, may depend on whether the period falls within a bear market - defined as when stocks have fallen 20% or more from their most recent high.

In the last five instances when the November-December period occurred in a bear market, the S&P 500 logged an average two-month decline of 2.2%.

"When we talk about end of year being generally positive, that's the case in bull markets. If you look at bear markets there is no evidence of seasonality at the end of the year," Antonelli said.

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03-12-2022 08:53:47 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0540

+0.0018 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0540

+0.0018 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2292

+0.0039 (+0.31%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

134.30

-0.96 (-0.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6795

-0.0014 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

USD/CAD

1.3473

+0.0041 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

141.59

-0.77 (-0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9876

+0.0016 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Gold Futures

1,811.40

-3.80 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

23.355

+0.514 (+2.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

Copper Futures

3.8550

+0.0375 (+0.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

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Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

80.34

-0.88 (-1.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

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Brent Oil Futures

85.42

-1.46 (-1.68%)

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Moving Avg:

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Natural Gas Futures

6.222

-0.516 (-7.66%)

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Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

US Coffee C Futures

162.08

-3.67 (-2.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,977.90

-6.60 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,071.70

-4.87 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

14,529.39

+39.09 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

FTSE 100

7,556.23

-2.26 (-0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

18,675.35

-61.09 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Small Cap 2000

1,889.98

+8.30 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,382.60

-22.70 (0.00%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.730

+0.870 (+1.82%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

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Buy (10)

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Bayer AG NA

54.84

-0.19 (-0.35%)

Summary

Neutral

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

202.65

-1.10 (-0.54%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Adidas AG

124.26

-0.66 (-0.53%)

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Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

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Buy (7)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.738

+0.162 (+2.14%)

Summary

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Siemens AG Class N

134.70

+1.04 (+0.78%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Deutsche Bank AG

10.024

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Summary

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Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Buy (8)

Sell (1)

    EUR/USD 1.0540 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2292 Buy  
    USD/JPY 134.30 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6795 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3473 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 141.59 Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9876 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,811.40 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 23.355 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.8550 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 80.34 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 85.42 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 6.222 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 162.08 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,977.90 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,071.70 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 14,529.39 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,556.23 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 18,675.35 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,889.98 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,382.60 Neutral  
    BASF 48.730 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 54.84 Neutral  
    Allianz 202.65 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 124.26 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 7.738 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 134.70 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.024 ↑ Buy  
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