binance left Huobi Global Coinmarketcap net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Analysis: Traders ready for wilder swings as rate rises stoke volatility

13 Tháng Năm 2022
Analysis: Traders ready for wilder swings as rate rises stoke volatility © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A specialist trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, August 21, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Dhara Ranasinghe, Saikat Chatterjee and Davide Barbuscia

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Traders in the world's largest markets are having to navigate wild intra-day swings and shrinking deal sizes as central banks rapidly withdraw stimulus measures, in a small-scale reminder of a pandemic-driven financial seize-up just two years ago.

The U.S. Federal Reserve said in a report this week that liquidity had "deteriorated" further than what might be expected at current levels of volatility, with noticeably poor conditions in treasury, commodity and equity markets.

The onset of the coronavirus pandemic triggered a market crisis in March 2020 as investors dumped riskier assets, prompting global policymakers to pump in a total of $15 trillion, the equivalent of more than a sixth of the world economy, to help them regain stability.

If markets are too unstable, the ability of central banks to transmit their monetary policy effectively is reduced and the Fed's wording is being read as a warning by some.

Liquidity had already been progressively more constrained after post-2008 regulations curbed the market-making and risk-taking ability of the world's biggest banks.

But this year's pinch is down to rapid interest rate rises by central banks and their efforts to cut balance sheets swollen by huge bond-buying programmes, with liquidity shortfalls now particularly acute in bond markets.

It is also evident in the Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge" which is up 14% this week alone. But at just over 34 points, the VIX remains below peaks of almost 90 hit during the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and the global financial crisis in 2008.

Central bank balance sheets set to get smaller https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akpezybwgvr/cbanks1205.PNG

DEPTH DEPRESSED

As of next month the Fed will start selling down its bond holdings, which is likely to mean even thinner trading volumes.

Bethany Payne, bond portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, said "the risk of hitting bond market air-pockets has increased" of the possibility of big sudden price swings.

"Bond market depth remains depressed year to date, as liquidity is withdrawn from the system," she said, citing the combination of monetary tightening, inflation, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the Fed's bond sale plans.

One indicator of the scale of the volatility are German 10-year bond futures, which are showing an average daily gap between the highest and lowest prices that is higher than any year in the past five, Refinitiv data shows, while Bund volatility in March was the highest since 2020.

Volatility in German Bund futures has jumped https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-BONDS/zjvqkjqyxvx/chart.png

The picture is similar in the $20 trillion U.S. Treasury market, which Steven Abrahams at brokerage Amherst Pierpont said results from the Fed's "withdrawal of liquidity by design".

"There are more investors that just aren't sure where the curve is going to go next, that has taken some of the capital out of the market, and traders are seeing it in kind of jumpier moves in yields during the day as well," Abrahams said.

Various indexes illustrate the shape market liquidity is in, with Abrahams' analysis showing Treasury liquidity at its tightest since March 2020.

And a Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) indicator based on inputs from over 30 different markets shows Treasuries leading recent liquidity tightening.

Another from Cross-Border Capital, which the consultancy says leads markets by 6-12 months, is at a three-year low.

Bond volatility https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akpezybrqvr/bond%20volatility.JPG

'BE MORE CAREFUL'

Greater volatility appears to be filtering into currency markets, where average daily turnover on the world's most-traded exchange rate pair, euro/dollar, is down to 4,500 trades on the EBS multi-dealer platform, from nearly 6000 in March.

Lower turnover can increase volatility, with a gauge of expected swings in the euro on a one-month horizon recently hitting two-year highs above 12%, Refinitiv data shows.

That often leaves traders struggling to execute larger trades and can cause a small number of trades to move prices.

"If you look at the screens, they are relatively normal. But we know that if anyone wants to trade a big size, that (market) depth will be challenged," Chris Huddleston, CEO at brokerage FXD Capital in London, said, adding trading would get harder as interest rate hikes gather pace.

Suhail Shaikh, CIO at Fulcrum Asset Management in London, estimates volatility is already between the 90th and 95th percentile in the context of asset classes' own history.

But market nervousness is partly because "risk officers are pointing out the Fed has been making loud noises about liquidity, which is not common for the Fed to do," Shaikh said.

"So we are just moving on from there being no worries to 'be more careful,'" he added.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot ig right nyse right Neteller Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
rakuten_main right top net_home_top Ai VIF Binance _ main right top fbs_main right top tifia_main right top
25-05-2022 04:07:11 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0734

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0734

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2533

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

126.83

+0.03 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.7110

+0.0008 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.2820

+0.0003 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

EUR/JPY

136.14

+0.03 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

1.0309

+0.0003 (+0.02%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Gold Futures

1,865.08

+17.28 (+0.94%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

22.099

+0.376 (+1.73%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Copper Futures

4.3133

-0.0322 (-0.74%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

110.28

-0.01 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

111.01

+0.06 (+0.05%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Natural Gas Futures

8.892

+0.065 (+0.74%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

213.83

-1.92 (-0.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,647.56

-60.83 (-1.64%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

S&P 500

3,941.48

-32.27 (-0.81%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

DAX

13,919.75

-255.65 (-1.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

FTSE 100

7,484.35

-29.09 (-0.39%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Hang Seng

20,112.10

-357.96 (-1.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,768.22

-24.55 (-1.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,631.20

+5.40 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.755

-0.980 (-1.97%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Bayer AG NA

63.29

-1.18 (-1.83%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

197.86

-1.52 (-0.76%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

171.20

-4.28 (-2.44%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.496

-0.407 (-5.90%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

114.20

-2.50 (-2.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.084

+0.066 (+0.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

 EUR/USD1.0734Buy
 GBP/USD1.2533Sell
 USD/JPY126.83↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7110↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2820↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY136.14↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0309Sell
 Gold1,865.08Buy
 Silver22.099Neutral
 Copper4.3133↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI110.28↑ Buy
 Brent Oil111.01Buy
 Natural Gas8.892↑ Buy
 US Coffee C213.83↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,647.56Neutral
 S&P 5003,941.48Neutral
 DAX13,919.75↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,484.35Sell
 Hang Seng20,112.10↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,768.22↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,631.20↑ Buy
 BASF48.755↑ Buy
 Bayer63.29Neutral
 Allianz197.86Sell
 Adidas171.20Neutral
 Lufthansa6.496↑ Buy
 Siemens AG114.20↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.084↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,900/ 6,990
(0/ 0) # 1,765
SJC HCM6,900/ 6,990
(0/ 0) # 1,764
SJC Hanoi6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
SJC Danang6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
SJC Nhatrang6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
SJC Cantho6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
Cập nhật 25-05-2022 04:07:13
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,866.42+12.650.68%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V31.25031.870
RON 95-III30.65031.260
E5 RON 92-II29.63030.220
DO 0.05S25.55026.060
DO 0,001S-V26.35026.870
Dầu hỏa 2-K24.40024.880
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$109.59-0.55-0.50%
Brent$111.28-0.02-0.02%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.040,0023.350,00
EUR24.230,6125.587,89
GBP28.221,9329.425,91
JPY177,16187,56
KRW15,8619,33
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:49 24/05/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
binance main right Fxpro Main Right aetos main right Phương Thức Thanh Toán