binance left Coinmarketcap net_left adver left
Detail

Analysis-With Evergrande debt relief deal, China signals stability trumps austerity

By Andrew Galbraith SHANGHAI (Reuters) - If this week's developments at China's most indebted property developer are anything to go by, 2022 might see Beijing soften its attempts...
Analysis-With Evergrande debt relief deal, China signals stability trumps austerity © Reuters. A partially removed company logo of China Evergrande Group is seen on the facade of its headquarters, near a traffic light in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China January 10, 2022. REUTERS/David Kirton

By Andrew Galbraith

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - If this week's developments at China's most indebted property developer are anything to go by, 2022 might see Beijing soften its attempts to purge the sector and make more allowances for economic stability.

China Evergrande Group, whose rocky financial situation has roiled Chinese property firms and global financial markets over the past year, got a reprieve this week after investors agreed to extend a payment date on a yuan bond.

The extension proposal, which a source familiar with the situation said had been implicitly greenlighted by regulators, offered investors a glimpse of what to expect from other property firms scrambling to service their debts.

The sector has been at the fore of Beijing's attack on bloated industries, high debt levels and over-investment as it strives for common prosperity and higher-quality growth.

But no one's quite sure how far the Communist Party is prepared to go to sacrifice the heavy contribution that real estate makes to the economy, or dispel unhealthy investor expectations of state bailouts.

Analysts said regulators seem to favour market-based debt workouts while trying to shore up investor and homebuyer confidence and soften the economic impact at a time of renewed focus on stability. It is a difficult balance.

"The concern seems to be primarily focused on homebuyers, secondarily on workers and contractor counterparties," said Charles Chang, senior director and China Country Lead at S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) Ratings. "...the government is demonstrating that it would like the market to function."

"Market discipline will continue to be a theme, but it won't just be for the real estate sector, it will be for other sectors as well. The government's view on this seems to be pretty clear."

The stakes are high in a year in which President Xi Jinping is expected to secure an unprecedented third five-year term as president at the 20th Party Congress this fall.

In a recent note, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analysts flagged the property market slowdown as the biggest threat to economic stability, noting that a 5 percentage point slowdown in investment could directly and indirectly lower GDP growth by as much as 0.7 percentage points.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters this week expect China's economic growth to slow to 5.2% this year.

GROWTH WINNING

The deal between Evergrande's Hengda Real Estate Group and holders of its 4.5 billion yuan ($707.60 million) bonds allowed the firm to avoid a technical default that could have complicated its restructuring.

The company has been struggling to repay more than $300 billion in liabilities, including nearly $20 billion of offshore bonds deemed in cross-default by ratings agencies last month after it missed payments.

It is not alone, with Chinese developers facing $116 billion in maturing debt this year, according to Refinitiv.

Graphic: Evergrande contagion, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xmvjonjgbpr/Pasted%20image%201639112002384.png Growing stress in the property sector has prompted Beijing to soften its clampdown at the margins, relaxing debt ratio rules dubbed the "three red lines" to ease acquisitions by state-owned developers.

"For developments to continue and to limit contagion risks, it is important to avoid a large number of distressed firms. This is why policy support should arrive, be it through increased lending by state banks or through facilitating asset acquisitions by state-owned developers," said Wei-Liang Chang, an FX and credit strategist at DBS Bank in Singapore.

At the same time, forcing some leveraged developers into debt restructurings could reinforce the message of credit discipline for developers and investors, he said.

Michael Pettis, a non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, expressed scepticism that Beijing would make significant progress in addressing property sector debt risks this year, noting that moves such as relaxing the three red lines have simply allowed the shifting of debt burdens to state-owned firms from the more constrained private sector.

"China hasn't really resolved the fundamental issue ... You can't have less debt and the same amount of growth. There's just no way. And because this is a politically important year, my guess is growth is going to win over yet again."

($1 = 6.3595 Chinese yuan)

ig right nyse right Neteller adver right
APPROVED BROKERS
rakuten_main right top net_home_top ig_main right top Binance _ main right top fbs_main right top tifia_main right top
19-01-2022 15:03:43 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1351

+0.0026 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.1351

+0.0026 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.3625

+0.0031 (+0.22%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

USD/JPY

114.22

-0.38 (-0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.7224

+0.0042 (+0.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.2491

-0.0022 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/JPY

129.66

-0.14 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/CHF

1.0389

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Gold Futures

1,843.15

+30.75 (+1.70%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Silver Futures

24.233

+0.741 (+3.15%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Copper Futures

4.4555

+0.0730 (+1.67%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

85.56

+0.73 (+0.86%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

88.15

+0.64 (+0.73%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

4.031

-0.252 (-5.88%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

244.00

+4.40 (+1.84%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,268.28

+10.46 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,565.21

-12.13 (-0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

DAX

15,809.72

+37.16 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,589.66

+26.11 (+0.35%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

24,127.85

+15.07 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,074.50

-22.12 (-1.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

8,774.90

-6.70 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

67.800

+0.140 (+0.21%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

52.12

+0.06 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

223.80

-2.15 (-0.95%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

253.60

-0.60 (-0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.820

-0.309 (-4.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Siemens AG Class N

144.34

+1.74 (+1.22%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.784

-0.142 (-1.19%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.1351↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.3625Sell
 USD/JPY114.22↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7224↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2491↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY129.66↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0389↑ Sell
 Gold1,843.15Buy
 Silver24.233Neutral
 Copper4.4555Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI85.56Neutral
 Brent Oil88.15Buy
 Natural Gas4.031Neutral
 US Coffee C244.00↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,268.28↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,565.21↑ Sell
 DAX15,809.72↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,589.66↑ Buy
 Hang Seng24,127.85↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,074.50↑ Sell
 IBEX 358,774.90↑ Sell
 BASF67.800Buy
 Bayer52.12↑ Sell
 Allianz223.80Buy
 Adidas253.60↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.820↑ Sell
 Siemens AG144.34↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG11.784Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,115/ 6,155
(0/ 0) # 1,151
SJC HCM6,115/ 6,175
(0/ 0) # 1,171
SJC Hanoi6,115/ 6,177
(0/ 0) # 1,173
SJC Danang6,115/ 6,177
(0/ 0) # 1,173
SJC Nhatrang6,115/ 6,177
(0/ 0) # 1,173
SJC Cantho6,115/ 6,177
(0/ 0) # 1,173
Cập nhật 19-01-2022 15:03:54
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,843.04+28.571.57%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2400024480
RON 95-II,III2390024370
E5 RON 92-II2291023360
DO 0.05S1838018740
DO 0,001S-V1873019100
Dầu hỏa1719017530
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$86.65-0.5-0.58%
Brent$88.18-0.09-0.10%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.530,0022.840,00
EUR25.086,6326.492,89
GBP30.098,2131.383,44
JPY192,29203,55
KRW16,4820,08
Cập nhật lúc 18:53:59 19/01/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
binance main right Fxpro Main Right aetos main right adver main right