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Argentina cenbank debt poses 'systemic risk' to financial sector, Moody's says

17 Tháng Mười Một 2022
Argentina cenbank debt poses 'systemic risk' to financial sector, Moody's says © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The facade of Argentina's Central Bank is pictured in the financial district of Buenos Aires, Argentina December 7, 2021. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
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(Reuters) - Argentina's rising central bank debt poses a risk to the country's monetary stability, ratings agency Moody's (NYSE:MCO) said on Wednesday, adding it could further stoke inflation and aggravate any exchange rate shock if savers flee from the local peso currency.

In that scenario, Moody's warned, authorities could even freeze peso deposits, an extreme measure which would bring back memories of the infamous 'corralito' restrictions during the crisis of 2001 that aimed to prevent a run on the banks.

"With the amount of pesos the central bank and government have, they may conclude that they have no choice but to limit access," Moody's analyst Gabriel Torres said in a webinar.

"Argentina has not been in that situation for a while, but it has done so in the past," he added.

In a report Moody's said central bank interest-bearing debt had increased significantly relative to GDP in the last two years, while its ratio to the monetary base was now over 200%.

"The ratio to the monetary base is comparable to the one observed in the late 1980s, a period that included a hyperinflationary episode," it added.

The entity said that there were refinancing risks related to local currency debt, with 64% of it maturing in less than a year and 70% of it indexed to inflation, which is currently running at 88% annually and expected to hit 100% this year.

"Because inflation is in the order of 100%, a sudden exchange rate shock could lead authorities to consider freezing peso-denominated bank deposit and savings accounts to limit further pressures on the exchange rate," the report said.

"Argentinean banks' exposure to government and central bank debt – mostly denominated in local currency – has recently increased and poses systemic risks for the financial sector."

Argentina: Banks' Debt Risk https://graphics.reuters.com/ARGENTINA-ECONOMY/gdvzqyqzzpw/chart.png

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    USD/JPY 138.91 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6706 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3421 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 144.12 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9816 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,750.35 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 21.247 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.5682 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 75.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 82.54 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 7.293 Sell  
    US Coffee C 164.40 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,962.41 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,026.12 Neutral  
    DAX 14,541.38 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,486.67 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,573.58 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 1,869.19 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,416.60 Sell  
    BASF 49.605 Neutral  
    Bayer 55.45 Sell  
    Allianz 205.35 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 123.98 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.567 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 132.06 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.390 ↑ Buy  
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