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Australian banks' margin woes linger but rate hikes may lift view

02 Tháng Năm 2022

By Shashwat Awasthi

(Reuters) - Australia's "Big Four" banks are set to report a further squeeze on interest margins in their upcoming results dented by growing competition, though the prospect of a recovery aided by central banks' rate hikes is expected to bolster their outlook.

The banks have tussled with increased competition in home lending amid record low rates and borrowers changing to fixed-rate loans, while costs ramp up due to investment in digital capabilities and broader inflation.

These pressures will likely be evident in quarterly results of Commonwealth Bank, and first-half reports from National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY), Westpac, and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group this month.

"We remain cautious on banks. The upcoming results are likely to show significantly weaker net interest margins and signs of rising costs," analysts at Barrenjoey said.

"But we would not be surprised if banks were more optimistic in their outlook, especially around the benefits of rising rates... This may provide them with some near-term support."

Still, earnings at top bank CBA and No. 2 lender NAB would likely have benefited from the flurry of new business they flagged in their reports in February, while No. 3 lender Westpac had also progressed with its cost cutting plan.

No. 4 lender ANZ, meanwhile, had forecast a first-half hit from softer performance in its markets business. It has also steadily lost Australian home loan market share since 2019.

"Lower NIM, flat mortgage book, removal of certain bank fees, weak trading income and higher expenses are not a great combination," Barrenjoey analysts wrote of ANZ, adding that they expect a "soft" first-half result.

In a prelude of things to come, mid-sized Bank of Queensland last month reported a hit to margins from stiff housing loan competition.

RATES TO THE RESCUE

The Reserve Bank of Australia has all but said it would raise rates to counter super-charged inflation, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has hiked rates at its last four meetings to levels not seen since June 2019.

This would benefit banks at a time when the Australian property market is showing some signs of cooling https://www.reuters.com/business/australia-housing-bubble-slowly-deflating-heat-leaves-sydney-melbourne-2022-03-31 after a bumper 22% surge in prices in 2021 due to record low rates and a shift to working from home during the pandemic.

"With the RBA cash rate starting to move higher... investor attention is set to switch to the impact of higher rates on revenue growth and net interest margins with slowing lending growth and house prices," analysts at Citi wrote.

ANZ, in its trading update in February, had forecast rising rates in New Zealand would relieve some pressure on margins in the second quarter.

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23-05-2022 10:19:20 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0589

+0.0029 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/USD

1.0589

+0.0029 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

GBP/USD

1.2543

+0.0056 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

USD/JPY

127.31

-0.55 (-0.43%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.7092

+0.0059 (+0.84%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.2800

-0.0036 (-0.28%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

134.80

-0.21 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/CHF

1.0290

-0.0006 (-0.06%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Gold Futures

1,853.32

+11.22 (+0.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

21.864

+0.190 (+0.88%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

4.3037

-0.0005 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

110.78

+0.50 (+0.45%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Brent Oil Futures

110.62

+0.63 (+0.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Natural Gas Futures

8.181

-0.219 (-2.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

216.48

-2.22 (-1.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,657.03

+16.48 (+0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

3,901.36

+0.57 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,981.91

+99.61 (+0.72%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,389.98

+87.24 (+1.19%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

20,426.00

-291.24 (-1.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

US Small Cap 2000

1,773.27

-2.96 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,484.50

+78.50 (+0.93%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.850

-0.010 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

63.74

+0.34 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

195.58

+0.78 (+0.40%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

172.80

+0.92 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.852

+0.049 (+0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

115.08

+2.62 (+2.33%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.362

-0.130 (-1.37%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0589↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2543↑ Sell
 USD/JPY127.31↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7092Sell
 USD/CAD1.2800Buy
 EUR/JPY134.80↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0290Sell
 Gold1,853.32↑ Buy
 Silver21.864↑ Sell
 Copper4.3037↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI110.78Sell
 Brent Oil110.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.181↑ Buy
 US Coffee C216.48↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,657.03↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,901.36↑ Buy
 DAX13,981.91Buy
 FTSE 1007,389.98Neutral
 Hang Seng20,426.00↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,773.27↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,484.50Neutral
 BASF48.850Buy
 Bayer63.74Buy
 Allianz195.58Buy
 Adidas172.80Buy
 Lufthansa6.852↑ Sell
 Siemens AG115.08Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG9.362Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,880/ 6,980
(5/ 5) # 1,771
SJC HCM6,895/ 6,985
(0/ 0) # 1,776
SJC Hanoi6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,778
SJC Danang6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,778
SJC Nhatrang6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,778
SJC Cantho6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,778
Cập nhật 23-05-2022 10:19:22
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,854.09+7.410.40%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V30.58031.190
RON 95-III29.98030.570
E5 RON 92-II28.95029.520
DO 0.05S26.65027.180
DO 0,001S-V27.45027.990
Dầu hỏa 2-K25.16025.660
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$110.34-0.64-0.58%
Brent$111.15-0.61-0.55%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.005,0023.315,00
EUR23.899,8625.238,69
GBP28.277,1029.483,51
JPY176,47186,83
KRW15,8019,25
Cập nhật lúc 10:12:01 23/05/2022
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