net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 50 bps in Dec, peak at 4.25% in Q1- Reuters poll

23 Tháng Mười Một 2022
Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 50 bps in Dec, peak at 4.25% in Q1- Reuters poll © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A general view of the Bank of England building, in London, Britain, August 4, 2022. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska

By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England will press on with interest rate rises to battle inflation even though Britain is heading into a long albeit shallow recession, with consumers facing an extended cost of living crisis, a Reuters poll of economists found.

Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt announced more pain in an autumn financial statement last week, with tax rises now and spending cuts further ahead, so any relief on borrowing costs would have been welcomed by indebted households.

After adding 75 basis points to Bank Rate earlier this month the Monetary Policy Committee will add a more modest 50 basis points on Dec. 15, taking it to 3.50%, the Nov. 18-22 poll found. In an October poll, the rate was expected to end this year at 3.75%.

Over 75% of respondents, 43 of 56, opted for 50 basis points while 13 said 75.

"In terms of being able to pivot back to 50 I think there was enough in the autumn statement to calm some of the fears at the Bank of England on the outlook for next year," said James Smith at ING.

Hunt's budget plan came after the blow dealt to Britain's fiscal reputation by former prime minister Liz Truss' unfunded tax cuts, which sent the pound to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar and forced the BoE to prop up bond markets.

"When you listen to what some of the MPC have been saying, they tried to send a very strong dovish signal in November and that was to try and take some of the heat into what is priced into markets. It does also depend a little on the Fed," said ING's Smith.

At the Nov. 3 meeting Governor Andrew Bailey told investors, who were pricing in a peak around 4.70%, their rate hike bets looked too big.

The United States Federal Reserve has made four consecutive 75 basis point increases but was expected to shift down the pace to a 50 basis point move next month.

December's move by the BoE will be followed by another 75 basis point lift across its two meetings next quarter, with the poll suggesting the Bank will then pause at 4.25%, matching the terminal rate given last month.

But when asked about the risk to their terminal rate forecast, 15 said it was that it would come later and be higher than they expect and seven said that it would come earlier and be lower.

The Bank's dilemma is inflation is running at more than five times its mandated 2% target - 11.1% in October - and was not expected to reach the goal until at least 2025, yet it is raising interest rates as the country enters recession.

Britons have been hit by soaring energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, food prices rising at the fastest pace since 1980, and disruptions to supply chains exacerbated by Britain's departure from the European Union.

Asked how long before the cost of living crisis eases significantly, six said it would be 6-12 months while ten said it would be 1-2 years. One said it would be over two years.

When asked about the probability of a recession within a year, poll respondents gave a median response of 90%, sharply higher than the 75% given in October.

Quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts supported that number, with the economy predicted to shrink 0.4% this quarter and next and 0.3% in the following one. A 0.2% contraction was pencilled in for last quarter.

Across next year the economy was expected to contract 0.9% while in 2024 it will expand 0.9%, the median view from the poll of 60 economists predicted.

Inflation will peak at 10.7% this quarter, the poll found. It will then gradually fall, dipping to 10.0% next quarter and then to 7.7%, 6.5% and 4.5% in the following quarters.

(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
03-12-2022 08:53:47 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0540

+0.0018 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0540

+0.0018 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2292

+0.0039 (+0.31%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

134.30

-0.96 (-0.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6795

-0.0014 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

USD/CAD

1.3473

+0.0041 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

141.59

-0.77 (-0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9876

+0.0016 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Gold Futures

1,811.40

-3.80 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

23.355

+0.514 (+2.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

Copper Futures

3.8550

+0.0375 (+0.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

80.34

-0.88 (-1.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

85.42

-1.46 (-1.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Natural Gas Futures

6.222

-0.516 (-7.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

US Coffee C Futures

162.08

-3.67 (-2.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,977.90

-6.60 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,071.70

-4.87 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

14,529.39

+39.09 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

FTSE 100

7,556.23

-2.26 (-0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

18,675.35

-61.09 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Small Cap 2000

1,889.98

+8.30 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,382.60

-22.70 (0.00%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.730

+0.870 (+1.82%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

54.84

-0.19 (-0.35%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

202.65

-1.10 (-0.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Adidas AG

124.26

-0.66 (-0.53%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.738

+0.162 (+2.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

134.70

+1.04 (+0.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.024

+0.119 (+1.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0540↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2292Buy
 USD/JPY134.30↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6795↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3473↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY141.59Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9876↑ Sell
 Gold1,811.40↑ Sell
 Silver23.355↑ Sell
 Copper3.8550↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI80.34↑ Buy
 Brent Oil85.42↑ Buy
 Natural Gas6.222↑ Sell
 US Coffee C162.08↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,977.90↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,071.70↑ Buy
 DAX14,529.39↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,556.23↑ Sell
 Hang Seng18,675.35↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,889.98↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,382.60Neutral
 BASF48.730↑ Buy
 Bayer54.84Neutral
 Allianz202.65↑ Sell
 Adidas124.26↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.738↑ Buy
 Siemens AG134.70↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.024↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,600/ 6,670
(0/ 0) # 1,414
SJC HCM6,615/ 6,695
(-5/ -5) # 1,445
SJC Hanoi6,615/ 6,697
(-5/ -5) # 1,447
SJC Danang6,615/ 6,697
(-5/ -5) # 1,447
SJC Nhatrang6,615/ 6,697
(-5/ -5) # 1,447
SJC Cantho6,615/ 6,697
(-5/ -5) # 1,447
Cập nhật 03-12-2022 08:53:49
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,798.03-4.41-0.24%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.83024.300
RON 95-III22.70023.150
E5 RON 92-II21.67022.100
DO 0.05S23.21023.670
DO 0,001S-V25.19025.690
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.56024.030
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.930,0024.240,00
EUR24.695,6126.077,28
GBP28.769,6729.995,10
JPY174,05184,25
KRW16,0519,55
Cập nhật lúc 08:49:40 03/12/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán