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Bill Ackman Says Bond Market is Misreading the Fed, Inflation is Out of Control and Fed May Ramp Up Hawkish Commentary

By Davit Kirakosyan Bill Ackman, a billionaire investor and the founder and CEO of hedge fund management company Pershing Square Capital Management, tweeted today that the bond...
Bill Ackman Says Bond Market is Misreading the Fed, Inflation is Out of Control and Fed May Ramp Up Hawkish Commentary © Reuters. Bill Ackman Says Bond Market is Misreading the Fed, Inflation is Out of Control and Fed May Ramp Up Hawkish Commentary

By Davit Kirakosyan

Bill Ackman, a billionaire investor and the founder and CEO of hedge fund management company Pershing Square Capital Management, tweeted today that the bond market is misreading the U.S. Fed.

According to Ackman, this is likely due to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s communication style and some wishful thinking on the part of investors. Ackman added that inflation is out of control and inflationary expectations have become unanchored.

"The Fed has finally come to this realization and has decided to act, and is playing catch up," Ackman commented. "However, Powell does not come across as someone who wants to go to battle against inflation. He seems uncomfortable and reluctant, almost apologetic, about raising rates."

Ackman added that each time Powell speaks unscripted in Q&A, the market interprets his statements dovishly. To fix his message, the Fed governors thereafter go out to clarify.

"To wit, Kashkari, a historic dove, on 6/17 unveiled his dot plot which shows FF at 3.9% by YE and 4.4% by YE’23. He says 75 bps in July and 50 bps thereafter ‘until inflation is well on its way to 2%.’ Then on 6/18 Waller said he supports 75 bps in July and said the Fed is ‘all in’ on fighting inflation. And then today Bowman, who speaks rarely but carries great import in light of the rarity of her public statements, said ‘I expect that an additional rate increase of 75 basis points will be appropriate at our next meeting as well as increases of at least 50 basis points in the next few subsequent meetings…’ And Bostick last week said the Fed would do ‘whatever it takes’ to bring inflation back to 2%. Despite the above coordinated commentary, the bond market has ignored these statements leading to a massive decline in short term rates since the Fed meeting."

Ackman predicts the Fed and Powell are serious about inflation and Powell does not want to be known as a worse chair than Arthur Burns. He believes the Fed will raise rates 75 bps or more in July and 50 bps or more in subsequent meetings and won’t pause until it is clear and convincing that inflation is headed back to 2%.

The hedge fund manager said a federal funds rate of 5% next year is in the cards.

He added that while the recession word is on everyone’s lips, recession talk won’t bring down inflation.

"Consumers and corporations are well capitalized and underlevered," he adds. "Banks are massively underinvested with one of the lowest ratio of deposits to loans in history. The potential for a future recession won’t stop the Fed from raising rates now."

Ackman finishes by saying the Fed has a credibility problem as the bond market flat out ignores Powell’s and the governors’ commentary. "This must be concerning to the Fed as managing inflationary expectations is critical to controlling inflation," he said. "Expect even more hawkish commentary until the bond market wakes up."

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07-07-2022 22:48:37 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0161

-0.0020 (-0.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0161

-0.0020 (-0.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.1998

+0.0069 (+0.57%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (4)

USD/JPY

135.95

+0.01 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6828

+0.0053 (+0.78%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

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USD/CAD

1.2980

-0.0056 (-0.43%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

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EUR/JPY

138.13

-0.23 (-0.17%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

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Indicators:

Buy (5)

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EUR/CHF

0.9883

+0.0003 (+0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (2)

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Gold Futures

1,739.80

+3.30 (+0.19%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Silver Futures

19.218

+0.059 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Buy (1)

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Indicators:

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Copper Futures

3.5285

+0.1205 (+3.54%)

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↑ Sell

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Indicators:

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

104.39

+5.86 (+5.95%)

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↑ Buy

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Indicators:

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Brent Oil Futures

106.28

+5.59 (+5.55%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Natural Gas Futures

6.223

+0.713 (+12.94%)

Summary

Buy

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Indicators:

Buy (4)

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US Coffee C Futures

218.70

-0.50 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

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Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,488.55

+66.71 (+1.95%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

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Sell (7)

S&P 500

3,890.24

+45.16 (+1.17%)

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↑ Buy

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DAX

12,841.94

+247.42 (+1.96%)

Summary

Neutral

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FTSE 100

7,186.40

+78.63 (+1.11%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (8)

Hang Seng

21,643.58

+56.92 (+0.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,764.30

+34.06 (+1.97%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,120.23

+171.63 (+2.16%)

Summary

Neutral

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Indicators:

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BASF SE NA O.N.

41.318

+1.568 (+3.94%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

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Bayer AG NA

56.56

+0.37 (+0.66%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

179.00

+3.50 (+1.99%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

169.58

+5.04 (+3.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.760

+0.250 (+4.54%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Siemens AG Class N

97.84

+1.79 (+1.86%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

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Deutsche Bank AG

7.970

+0.282 (+3.67%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

 EUR/USD1.0161Neutral
 GBP/USD1.1998Neutral
 USD/JPY135.95↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6828Sell
 USD/CAD1.2980Neutral
 EUR/JPY138.13Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9883Neutral
 Gold1,739.80Sell
 Silver19.218↑ Sell
 Copper3.5285↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI104.39↑ Buy
 Brent Oil106.28↑ Buy
 Natural Gas6.223Buy
 US Coffee C218.70↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,488.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,890.24↑ Buy
 DAX12,841.94Neutral
 FTSE 1007,186.40↑ Sell
 Hang Seng21,643.58↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,764.30↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,120.23Neutral
 BASF41.318↑ Buy
 Bayer56.56Sell
 Allianz179.00↑ Buy
 Adidas169.58↑ Buy
 Lufthansa5.760↑ Buy
 Siemens AG97.84↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG7.970↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,765/ 6,825
(-5/ -5) # 1,893
SJC HCM6,785/ 6,845
(0/ 0) # 1,914
SJC Hanoi6,785/ 6,847
(0/ 0) # 1,916
SJC Danang6,785/ 6,847
(0/ 0) # 1,916
SJC Nhatrang6,785/ 6,847
(0/ 0) # 1,916
SJC Cantho6,785/ 6,847
(0/ 0) # 1,916
Cập nhật 07-07-2022 22:48:39
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$1,741.43-23.48-1.33%
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RON 95-V33.36034.020
RON 95-III32.76033.410
E5 RON 92-II30.89031.500
DO 0.05S29.61030.200
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.180,0023.490,00
EUR23.177,9524.476,02
GBP27.204,7528.365,03
JPY166,93176,72
KRW15,5318,93
Cập nhật lúc 18:49:11 07/07/2022
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