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BMO Capital Markets Head Fears Deep Recession on Rate Hikes

(Bloomberg) -- Two of Canada’s top investment bankers voiced concern that the rising interest rates that have already dragged down asset values from stocks to cryptocurrencies...
BMO Capital Markets Head Fears Deep Recession on Rate Hikes © Reuters. BMO Capital Markets Head Fears Deep Recession on Rate Hikes

(Bloomberg) -- Two of Canada’s top investment bankers voiced concern that the rising interest rates that have already dragged down asset values from stocks to cryptocurrencies could plunge the global economy into a recession.

Dan Barclay, chief executive officer of capital markets at the Bank of Montreal, said interest rate hikes by central banks around the world could fail to arrest recent spikes in consumer prices because they are rooted in post-pandemic supply chain snarls and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But they could still wallop economic growth.

“I’m hoping you’ll have a nice correction, we will take some of the froth out of a bunch of markets and we’ll have a nice soft landing,” he said at the Bloomberg Canada Capital Markets Forum in Toronto. “That would be my hope story. My fear story is that they raise rates really, really hard, they can’t fix demand, because it’s a supply problem and not demand, and we will have a very deep recession.”

Central banks around the world are embarking on an unusually aggressive campaign of interest rate increases -- both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada raised rates by 50 basis points recently, twice their normal pace -- to try to wrestle inflation down from multi-decade highs.

That rapid rise in borrowing costs has already resulted in US stocks tumbling 18% from this year’s peak, while assets from bonds to Bitcoin have been routed too.

The S&P 500’s latest move lower has nearly priced in the risks for recession to develop in the next year, according to the fair-value model of Bloomberg Intelligence. The equity benchmark would only need to fall another 4.4% to hit 3,760, which is the level where investors are pricing in a U.S. economic downturn, BI data shows.

A US Recession Is Almost Priced Into the Market: Taking Stock

Roman Dubczak, managing director and head of global investment banking at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, added that the central bankers’ job is even more difficult because they’re unwinding the programs of bond purchases they put in place to drive down market borrowing rates during times of crisis, at the same time that they’re raising rates.

“You’ve got to land two planes on a postage stamp, not one,” he said, speaking at the same Bloomberg event. “Hence you’re seeing market activity being what it is. It’s just a lot of precision required right now.”

(Updates information on S&P 500 fall, Bloomberg Intelligence model)

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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25-05-2022 05:57:42 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0739

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0739

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2544

+0.0015 (+0.12%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

USD/JPY

126.79

-0.01 (-0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.7113

+0.0009 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

USD/CAD

1.2822

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

136.16

+0.05 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

EUR/CHF

1.0314

+0.0007 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,865.12

+0.04 (+0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

22.097

-0.002 (-0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

Copper Futures

4.3145

+0.0012 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

110.56

+0.28 (+0.25%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Brent Oil Futures

111.00

+0.22 (+0.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Natural Gas Futures

8.910

+0.018 (+0.20%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

213.83

-1.92 (-0.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,647.56

-60.83 (-1.64%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

S&P 500

3,941.48

-32.27 (-0.81%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

DAX

13,919.75

-255.65 (-1.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

FTSE 100

7,484.35

-29.09 (-0.39%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Hang Seng

20,112.10

-357.96 (-1.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,768.22

-24.55 (-1.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,631.20

+5.40 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.755

-0.980 (-1.97%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Bayer AG NA

63.29

-1.18 (-1.83%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

197.86

-1.52 (-0.76%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

171.20

-4.28 (-2.44%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.496

-0.407 (-5.90%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

114.20

-2.50 (-2.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.084

+0.066 (+0.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

 EUR/USD1.0739↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2544Sell
 USD/JPY126.79↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7113↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2822↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY136.16↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0314↑ Buy
 Gold1,865.12↑ Buy
 Silver22.097Neutral
 Copper4.3145↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI110.56Neutral
 Brent Oil111.00Neutral
 Natural Gas8.910Sell
 US Coffee C213.83↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,647.56Neutral
 S&P 5003,941.48Neutral
 DAX13,919.75↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,484.35Sell
 Hang Seng20,112.10↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,768.22↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,631.20↑ Buy
 BASF48.755↑ Buy
 Bayer63.29Neutral
 Allianz197.86Sell
 Adidas171.20Neutral
 Lufthansa6.496↑ Buy
 Siemens AG114.20↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.084↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,900/ 6,990
(0/ 0) # 1,765
SJC HCM6,900/ 6,990
(0/ 0) # 1,764
SJC Hanoi6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
SJC Danang6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
SJC Nhatrang6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
SJC Cantho6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
Cập nhật 25-05-2022 05:57:44
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,866.63+12.860.69%
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ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V31.25031.870
RON 95-III30.65031.260
E5 RON 92-II29.63030.220
DO 0.05S25.55026.060
DO 0,001S-V26.35026.870
Dầu hỏa 2-K24.40024.880
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$109.76-0.71-0.65%
Brent$111.28-0.02-0.02%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.040,0023.350,00
EUR24.230,6125.587,89
GBP28.221,9329.425,91
JPY177,16187,56
KRW15,8619,33
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:49 24/05/2022
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