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Britain likely to face recession in the next two years, says JPM

17 Tháng Sáu 2022
Britain likely to face recession in the next two years, says JPM © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A general view is seen of the London skyline from Canary Wharf in London, Britain, October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Hannah McKay

(Reuters) - Britain is increasingly likely to head into recession over the next year or two amid soaring inflation due to the country's vulnerability to external shocks, J.P.Morgan economists said on Friday, a day after the Bank of England raised borrowing costs.

The BoE raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.25% on Thursday - the highest since January 2009. While its move was more gradual than other central banks, the BoE said it was ready to act "forcefully" if needed to tackle dangers from inflation.

"If the (U.S. Federal Reserve) engineers a sharp growth slowdown or recession, this would spill over to the UK and, combined with a tightening in domestic financial conditions, likely produce a UK recession," JPM said.

The Fed on Thursday rolled out its biggest rate hike since 1994 and flagged a slowing economy.

"... given the nature of the UK economy, we see high vulnerability to external shocks beyond the near term and see increasing chances of a recession over the next one to two years," JPM added.

It said recession would be more likely if British rates topped its long-term forecast of 3%.

Countries worldwide are battling cost-of-living levels not seen in decades, ratcheted up by the reopening of the global economy after the COVID-19 pandemic and then by the Russia-Ukraine war. The BoE expects inflation to top 11% in October.

However, JPM predicts British banks to remain profitable and mortgage defaults to remain below previous recession peaks even with higher interest rates, adding that it expects the initial impact on borrowers would be manageable over the next 12 months.

Earlier in June, the British government said it would launch a comprehensive review of the mortgage market, months after a BoE survey showed lenders expected loan defaults to rise.

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07-07-2022 22:58:39 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0155↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.1992↑ Sell
 USD/JPY136.01↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6826↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2987↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY138.12Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9886↑ Buy
 Gold1,738.55↑ Sell
 Silver19.195↑ Sell
 Copper3.5465↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI104.07Neutral
 Brent Oil106.06Sell
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 US Coffee C218.70↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,488.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,890.03↑ Buy
 DAX12,843.22Neutral
 FTSE 1007,186.40↑ Sell
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 Small Cap 20001,764.30↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,122.50Neutral
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 Siemens AG97.71↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG7.983↑ Sell
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