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Canadian firms expect mild recession, see inflation higher for longer - BoC Q4 survey

17 Tháng Giêng 2023
Canadian firms expect mild recession, see inflation higher for longer - BoC Q4 survey © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People are seen shopping at a supermarket in Ottawa, Canada July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Patrick Doyle

OTTAWA, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Most Canadian businesses expect a mild recession in the next year because of higher interest rates that are curbing investment plans, while at the same time more expect inflation to stay high for longer, a quarterly Bank of Canada survey showed on Monday.

Business sentiment continued to weaken in the fourth quarter and expectations for slower sales growth increased for a fourth consecutive quarter, the survey said. Some two-thirds of firms expect a recession over the next 12 months, with 90% of those expecting it to be mild.

Almost 30% of firms see sales falling over the next year, mainly because of weakening domestic demand. Several firms said rising interest rates were slowing household demand and demand in the housing market.

Around 71.5% of consumers also expect "a mild to moderate recession" and just under half of those expect it to be "moderate in severity and length", according to a separate quarterly survey.

Last year the bank lifted rates at a record pace of 400 basis points in nine months to 4.25% - a level last seen in January 2008 - to fight inflation. The survey showed that 84% of firms expect inflation to remain above 3% for the next two years, up from 77% in the third quarter.

Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November as gasoline price rose more slowly, still well above the central bank's 2% target, data showed last month.

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27-01-2023 21:46:15 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0872

-0.0017 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0872

-0.0017 (-0.16%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

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GBP/USD

1.2385

-0.0022 (-0.17%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

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Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

129.82

-0.38 (-0.30%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

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AUD/USD

0.7113

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

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USD/CAD

1.3317

-0.0003 (-0.02%)

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Sell (9)

EUR/JPY

141.16

-0.63 (-0.44%)

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Buy (8)

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EUR/CHF

1.0025

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

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Buy (9)

Sell (3)

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Buy (9)

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1,925.30

-4.70 (-0.24%)

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Silver Futures

23.657

-0.363 (-1.51%)

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4.2423

-0.0252 (-0.59%)

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81.56

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88.04

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2.834

-0.014 (-0.49%)

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167.17

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,167.75

-6.23 (-0.15%)

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S&P 500

4,057.90

-2.53 (-0.06%)

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DAX

15,110.95

-21.90 (-0.14%)

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FTSE 100

7,759.24

-1.87 (-0.02%)

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Neutral

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Sell (3)

Hang Seng

22,688.90

+122.12 (+0.54%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,903.05

+5.09 (+0.27%)

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IBEX 35

9,036.87

+1.27 (+0.01%)

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Sell (3)

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52.655

+0.035 (+0.07%)

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56.25

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221.38

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147.38

+2.10 (+1.45%)

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9.741

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143.63

-0.43 (-0.30%)

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12.300

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 EUR/USD1.0872↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2385↑ Buy
 USD/JPY129.82↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7113↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3317↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY141.16↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0025↑ Buy
 Gold1,925.30Buy
 Silver23.657↑ Sell
 Copper4.2423Sell
 Crude Oil WTI81.56↑ Sell
 Brent Oil88.04↑ Sell
 Natural Gas2.834Buy
 US Coffee C167.17↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,167.75↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,057.90↑ Buy
 DAX15,110.95↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,759.24Neutral
 Hang Seng22,688.90Buy
 Small Cap 20001,903.05↑ Buy
 IBEX 359,036.87↑ Buy
 BASF52.655Buy
 Bayer56.25↑ Buy
 Allianz221.38Sell
 Adidas147.38Sell
 Lufthansa9.741Neutral
 Siemens AG143.63Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG12.300Neutral
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,720/ 6,820
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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GBP28.270,1829.475,66
JPY175,71186,02
KRW16,4320,02
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:25 27/01/2023
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