net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

China growth seen rebounding to 4.9% in 2023, more stimulus on the cards - Reuters poll

12 Tháng Giêng 2023
China growth seen rebounding to 4.9% in 2023, more stimulus on the cards - Reuters poll © Reuters. People wearing face masks walk on a street, as coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks continue in Shanghai, China, December 13, 2022. REUTERS/Aly Song

By Kevin Yao

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's economic growth is likely to rebound to 4.9% in 2023, before steadying in 2024, a Reuters poll showed, as policymakers pledge to step up support for the COVID-ravaged economy.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew just 2.8% in 2022 as lockdowns weighed on activity and confidence, according to the median forecasts of 49 economists polled by Reuters, slower than a 3.2% rise seen in October's forecast and braking sharply from 8.4% growth in 2021.

Chinese leaders have pledged to spur the world's second-largest economy this year while addressing some key drags on growth - the "zero-COVID" policy and a severe property sector downturn.

Strict COVID curbs were abruptly lifted in December, but surging infections are causing some near-term pains.

"We expect economic activities and consumption to rebound strongly from March-April onwards, helped by post-COVID re-opening and release of excess savings," Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, said in a research note.

"The lack of large-scale income- and consumption-stimulus will likely limit the rebound."

Graphic: Losing steam https://www.reuters.com/graphics/CHINA-ECONOMY/myvmoggzlvr/chart.png

The expected 2022 growth rate would be far below the official target of around of 5.5%. Excluding the 2.2% expansion after the initial COVID hit in 2020, it would also be the worst showing since 1976 - the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that wrecked the economy.

GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 likely grew 1.8% from a year earlier as anti-virus restrictions intensified, the poll showed, slowing from the third-quarter's 3.9% pace.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to contract 0.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% in July-September, the poll showed.

The government is due to release 2022 and Q4 GDP data, along with December activity data, on Jan. 17 (0200 GMT).

At an agenda-setting meeting in December, top leaders pledged to focus on stabilising the $17-trillion economy in 2023 and step up policy adjustments to ensure key targets are hit.

China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said.

MORE POLICY STIMULUS IN PIPELINE

The central bank has promised to make its policy "precise and forceful" this year to support the economy, keeping liquidity reasonably ample and lowering funding costs for businesses.

Analysts expect the central bank to cut the benchmark lending rate - the one-year loan prime rate(LPR) - by 5 basis points (bps) in the first quarter.

On Dec. 20, the central bank kept benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, matching the forecasts of most market watchers who nevertheless expect further monetary easing to prop up the slowing economy.

The central bank last cut banks' reserve requirement ratio by 25 bps effective from Dec. 5, its second such move last year.

"Economic policy would turn more supportive in 2023. We expect 11-12% credit growth in 2023 vs 9.6% in 2022, thanks to the window guidance on banks and the improved credit demand," Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said in a note.

"Fiscal policy could also turn more expansionary with a record quota for local government special bonds."

Consumer inflation will likely quicken to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.0% in 2022, before steadying in 2024, the poll showed.

(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)

(Polling by Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir and Devayani Sathyan in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
27-01-2023 22:06:24 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0866

-0.0024 (-0.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

1.0866

-0.0024 (-0.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.2384

-0.0022 (-0.18%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

USD/JPY

129.90

-0.31 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.7116

+0.0001 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.3302

-0.0019 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/JPY

141.15

-0.63 (-0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

1.0019

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Gold Futures

1,925.95

-4.05 (-0.21%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

23.718

-0.302 (-1.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

4.2415

-0.0260 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

82.04

+1.03 (+1.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Brent Oil Futures

88.59

+1.12 (+1.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

2.851

+0.003 (+0.11%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

US Coffee C Futures

168.58

+1.43 (+0.86%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,175.65

+1.67 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,071.94

+11.51 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

DAX

15,144.45

+11.60 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,769.34

+8.23 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Hang Seng

22,688.90

+122.12 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,909.60

+11.64 (+0.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

9,040.09

+4.49 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.735

+0.115 (+0.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Bayer AG NA

56.30

+0.26 (+0.46%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

221.52

-0.08 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

147.38

+2.10 (+1.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.739

+0.012 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Siemens AG Class N

144.20

+0.14 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.335

+0.203 (+1.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0866↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2384Neutral
 USD/JPY129.90↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7116↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3302↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY141.15↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0019Neutral
 Gold1,925.95Neutral
 Silver23.718↑ Buy
 Copper4.2415↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI82.04↑ Buy
 Brent Oil88.59↑ Buy
 Natural Gas2.851Sell
 US Coffee C168.58↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,175.65↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,071.94↑ Buy
 DAX15,144.45↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,769.34↑ Buy
 Hang Seng22,688.90Buy
 Small Cap 20001,909.60↑ Buy
 IBEX 359,040.09↑ Sell
 BASF52.735Neutral
 Bayer56.30Buy
 Allianz221.52↑ Buy
 Adidas147.38↑ Sell
 Lufthansa9.739↑ Sell
 Siemens AG144.20↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG12.335↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,720/ 6,820
(30/ 30) # 1,331
SJC HCM6,750/ 6,850
(60/ 60) # 1,361
SJC Hanoi6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
SJC Danang6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
SJC Nhatrang6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
SJC Cantho6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
Cập nhật 27-01-2023 22:06:27
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,924.74-5.84-0.30%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.01023.470
RON 95-III22.15022.590
E5 RON 92-II21.35021.770
DO 0.05S21.63022.060
DO 0,001S-V23.39023.850
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.80022.230
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$81.98-0.74-0.91%
Brent$88.12-0.75-0.85%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.260,0023.630,00
EUR24.857,5526.249,47
GBP28.270,1829.475,66
JPY175,71186,02
KRW16,4320,02
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:25 27/01/2023
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán