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Dollar edges higher for now; more weakness likely

By Peter Nurse AiVIF.com - The U.S. dollar edged off its recent seven-month low Tuesday, while the Japanese yen slipped lower ahead of a widely-anticipated Bank of Japan...
Dollar edges higher for now; more weakness likely © Reuters
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By Peter Nurse

AiVIF.com - The U.S. dollar edged off its recent seven-month low Tuesday, while the Japanese yen slipped lower ahead of a widely-anticipated Bank of Japan meeting.

At 03:20 ET (08:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, rose 0.1% to 102.005, bouncing from a seven-month low of 101.77 seen on Monday. 

The dollar has seen some support early Tuesday, but the conviction call within the market now appears to be that the greenback has peaked with the U.S. Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle as inflation heads lower.

Morgan Stanley, for example, has cut its 2023 year-end forecast for the dollar index to 98 from 104.

"Global growth is showing signs of buoyancy, macro and inflation uncertainty are waning and the USD is rapidly losing its carry advantage," analysts at the investment bank said, in a note.

The U.S. data calendar is relatively light this week, but retail sales, industrial production and existing home sales should all fall on the soft side. 

“In theory, then, this should not impact too much the market expectations of two 25bp Federal Reserve hikes in February and March, both of which are expected to be reversed by year-end,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

This change in sentiment can be seen in USD/JPY, with the pair just above a seven-month low, although the yen has handed back some gains in the session, with the pair up slightly at 128.56.

Traders are firmly focused on the Bank of Japan’s policy-setting meeting later in the week, with expectations growing that the central bank officials will announce a change or end to Japan's yield curve control policy.

“Further adjustments to its JGB targets are in focus and investors are positioning for this with higher longer-dated swap rates. We suspect USD/JPY can trade down to 126.50 before Wednesday,” ING added.

Elsewhere, EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0832, just off the previous session’s nine-month high of 1.0874, while GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2217 after the U.K. labor market stayed stronger than expected in December.

The U.K. claimant count rose by 19,700, rather than the 19,800 expected by economists, while November's data were revised down to show an increase of only 16,100, rather than the 30,500 initially reported.

At the same time, wage growth in November, the last month for which data are available, grew more strongly than expected, rising 6.4% on the year, suggesting the Bank of England will have to keep tightening in its attempt to rein in inflation.

USD/CNY rose 0.5% to 6.7660, with the yuan coming off a near five-month high after data showed that the Chinese economy grew at a substantially slower pace in 2022 than the prior year, rising 3.0%, far below the official target of around 5.5%.

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01-12-2023 11:26:00 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0903

+0.0017 (+0.16%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0903

+0.0017 (+0.16%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2637

+0.0015 (+0.12%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

148.06

-0.13 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.6607

+0.0001 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.3546

-0.0016 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

161.42

+0.06 (+0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (4)

EUR/CHF

0.9537

+0.0008 (+0.08%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Gold Futures

2,040.30

+2.20 (+0.11%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Silver Futures

25.290

-0.003 (-0.01%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (3)

Copper Futures

3.8492

-0.0043 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (5)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

75.86

-0.10 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Brent Oil Futures

80.60

-0.26 (-0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Natural Gas Futures

2.793

-0.015 (-0.53%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

185.65

+12.95 (+7.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,381.15

+10.62 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

S&P 500

4,567.80

+17.22 (+0.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

DAX

16,215.43

+48.98 (+0.30%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,453.75

+30.29 (+0.41%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (3)

Hang Seng

16,927.00

-101.50 (-0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,807.15

+3.34 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

10,058.20

-4.40 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.685

-0.290 (-0.67%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Bayer AG NA

31.36

+0.69 (+2.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

230.60

-0.40 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

192.14

-0.58 (-0.30%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.980

-0.040 (-0.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

154.00

+1.12 (+0.73%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.426

+0.154 (+1.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

    EUR/USD 1.0903 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.2637 Buy  
    USD/JPY 148.06 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6607 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3546 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 161.42 Neutral  
    EUR/CHF 0.9537 Neutral  
    Gold 2,040.30 Sell  
    Silver 25.290 Sell  
    Copper 3.8492 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 75.86 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 80.60 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 2.793 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 185.65 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,381.15 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 4,567.80 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 16,215.43 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,453.75 Buy  
    Hang Seng 16,927.00 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,807.15 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 10,058.20 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 42.685 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 31.36 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 230.60 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 192.14 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 7.980 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 154.00 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.426 ↑ Buy  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,240/ 7,340
(-10/ -10) # 1,332
SJC HCM7,230/ 7,350
(-10/ -10) # 1,342
SJC Hanoi7,230/ 7,352
(-10/ -10) # 1,344
SJC Danang7,230/ 7,352
(-10/ -10) # 1,344
SJC Nhatrang7,230/ 7,352
(-10/ -10) # 1,344
SJC Cantho7,230/ 7,352
(-10/ -10) # 1,344
Cập nhật 01-12-2023 11:26:02
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RON 95-V23.68024.150
RON 95-III22.99023.440
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DO 0.05S20.19020.590
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WTI $75.89 +0.6 0.01%
Brent $80.55 +0.49 0.01%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.080,0024.450,00
EUR25.781,5527.197,16
GBP29.888,4331.161,13
JPY159,30168,63
KRW16,0719,48
Cập nhật lúc 11:23:44 01/12/2023
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