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Dollar firms with Fed in focus, yen slips back

15 Tháng Chín 2022
Dollar firms with Fed in focus, yen slips back © Reuters. Woman holds U.S. dollar banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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By Rae Wee and Alun John

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar held near recent peaks on Thursday, supported by expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to tighten policy aggressively as it tries to curb inflation, while the yen faltered after jumping sharply the day before.

The dollar was up 0.28% against the yen at 143.58, having fallen 1% on Wednesday on news that the Bank of Japan had checked on exchange rates with banks - a possible preparation for yen buying.

The euro was back below parity against the dollar, down 0.15% at $0.99635, not too far from its 20-year low of $0.9864 hit last week, while sterling likewise was 0.26% softer at $1.15115.

This left the dollar index firm at 109.84, holding onto its 1.5% gain from Tuesday, when U.S. inflation data came in hotter than expected. That caused markets to reposition for a Fed seemingly left with little choice but to go for another large hike at its rate-setting meeting next week.

Fed funds futures are now pricing in around 30% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 100 basis points, and a 70% chance of a 75 basis point increase.

Traders will be watching U.S. retail sales and industrial production data due later in the day, since, as ING analysts note, data is the most likely thing to cause a dovish repricing.

The Fed, in recent months, has been unwilling to push back on hawkish market expectations.

Nonetheless, ING conclude: "We see a good chance that today's data will not trigger any material re-pricing lower in Fed rate expectations, and the hawkish inertia into next week's meeting means that the dollar can stay supported."

The yen was also in focus as investors continued to debate whether or not Japanese authorities really would intervene to support the battered currency, which has fallen nearly 20% this year.

But some market watchers expressed scepticism that there would be a direct intervention, or that it would have much lasting impact. Satsuki Katayama, head of a ruling party panel on financial affairs in Japan, told Reuters that the country lacks effective means to combat the yen's sharp falls.

A record Japanese trade deficit for August has also underscored the bear case for the yen.

"The yen direction of travel continues to be for further weakness ... If they really want to stop the weakness, then a change in BOJ policy is the recipe," said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY).

"Our sense is that the intervention, sure, it will scare the speculators on the day, but it's unlikely to prove longer lasting."

In crypto markets, ether did not move significantly after Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum inventor and co-founder, tweeted that a major software upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain aimed at drastically reducing its energy usage has been completed.

The token, which underpins the ethereum network, was down 1.5%. Bitcoin was a touch softer at just under $20,200.

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29-09-2022 21:00:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9742

+0.0008 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

0.9742

+0.0008 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.0983

+0.0095 (+0.87%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

144.60

+0.43 (+0.30%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

AUD/USD

0.6476

-0.0046 (-0.71%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

USD/CAD

1.3714

+0.0109 (+0.80%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

140.88

+0.55 (+0.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9565

+0.0064 (+0.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,662.15

-7.85 (-0.47%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

18.690

-0.190 (-1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

3.3998

+0.0413 (+1.23%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.93

-0.22 (-0.27%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Brent Oil Futures

87.76

-0.29 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Natural Gas Futures

6.764

-0.191 (-2.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

226.33

-2.37 (-1.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,267.75

-67.55 (-2.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

S&P 500

3,644.71

-74.33 (-2.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

DAX

11,931.24

-252.04 (-2.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

6,861.90

-143.49 (-2.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Hang Seng

17,165.87

-85.01 (-0.49%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,664.10

-61.03 (-3.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

IBEX 35

7,285.03

-157.17 (-2.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

38.530

-0.885 (-2.25%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Bayer AG NA

47.48

-0.71 (-1.47%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

158.46

-2.26 (-1.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Adidas AG

125.04

-5.20 (-3.99%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.808

+0.036 (+0.62%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

97.49

-1.97 (-1.98%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

Deutsche Bank AG

7.505

-0.349 (-4.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

    EUR/USD 0.9742 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.0983 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 144.60 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6476 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3714 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 140.88 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9565 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,662.15 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 18.690 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.3998 Neutral  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.93 Sell  
    Brent Oil 87.76 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 6.764 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 226.33 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,267.75 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 3,644.71 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 11,931.24 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 6,861.90 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,165.87 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,664.10 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 7,285.03 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 38.530 Neutral  
    Bayer 47.48 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 158.46 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 125.04 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 5.808 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 97.49 Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.505 ↑ Sell  
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