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Dollar steady with Fed in focus, Swissie strongest vs euro since Jan 2015

16 Tháng Chín 2022
Dollar steady with Fed in focus, Swissie strongest vs euro since Jan 2015 © Reuters. Woman holds U.S. dollar banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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By Alun John

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar held near recent peaks on Thursday, supported by the view that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening policy aggressively, while the Swiss franc hits its strongest against the euro since the Swiss National Bank removed its floor under the currency in 2015.

The franc rose 0.5% against the euro to as high as 0.9529 francs, its strongest level against the single currency since Jan. 15 2015, the day the SNB scrapped its minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs per euro.

The franc also strengthened 0.7% against the dollar to 0.95645 francs.

"The Swiss currency right now is the only safe haven in the G10 and I think that's appealing to investors, as next week with the FOMC it could be another choppy week for stock markets if the (Fed) raises by 75 or even a hundred basis points," said Kenneth Broux, senior strategist at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY).

The Swiss National Bank also meets next week and Broux notes speculation that they could join the Fed and ECB with outsized rate increases.

Money markets are fully pricing in a 75 basis-point rate rise from the SNB, with just under a 50% chance of a full percentage-point hike, according to data from Refinitiv.

The euro was little changed at $0.9982, not too far from its 20-year low of $0.9864 hit last week, while sterling was 0.4% softer at $1.1492.

The dollar was up 0.3% against the yen at 143.55, having fallen 1% on Wednesday on news that the Bank of Japan had checked on exchange rates with banks - a possible preparation for yen buying.

This left the dollar index firm at 109.71, holding onto its 1.5% gain from Tuesday, when U.S. inflation data came in hotter than expected. That caused markets to reposition for a Fed seemingly left with little choice but to go for another large hike at its rate-setting meeting next week.

Fed funds futures are now pricing in around 30% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 100 basis points, with at least a 75 basis point increase fully expected by the market.

Traders will be watching U.S. retail sales and industrial production data due later in the day, since, as ING analysts note, data is the most likely thing to cause a dovish repricing.

The Fed, in recent months, has been unwilling to push back on hawkish market expectations.

Nonetheless, ING conclude: "We see a good chance that today's data will not trigger any material re-pricing lower in Fed rate expectations, and the hawkish inertia into next week's meeting means that the dollar can stay supported."

Investors continued to consider whether Japanese authorities really would intervene to support their battered currency, which has fallen nearly 20% this year.

But some market watchers expressed scepticism that there would be a direct intervention, or that it would have much lasting impact. Satsuki Katayama, head of a ruling party panel on financial affairs in Japan, told Reuters that the country lacks effective means to combat the yen's sharp falls.

A record Japanese trade deficit for August has also underscored the bearish case for the yen.

China's yuan traded offshore slipped to seven per dollar in European hours on Thursday, the first time since July 2020, as markets continue to test Chinese authorities' willingness to defend the symbolic level.

In crypto markets, ether did not move significantly after Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum inventor and co-founder, wrote on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) that a major software upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain aimed at slashing its energy usage has been completed.

The token, which underpins the ethereum network, was down 3%. Bitcoin was a touch softer at just under $20,150.

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01-10-2022 05:50:16 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9801

-0.0013 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

0.9801

-0.0013 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.1172

+0.0057 (+0.51%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

USD/JPY

144.79

+0.34 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.6403

-0.0095 (-1.47%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3830

+0.0153 (+1.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

141.89

+0.11 (+0.08%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

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Sell (7)

EUR/CHF

0.9673

+0.0098 (+1.02%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Gold Futures

1,668.30

-0.30 (-0.02%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Silver Futures

19.015

+0.303 (+1.62%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Copper Futures

3.3885

-0.0295 (-0.86%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.74

-1.49 (-1.83%)

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Buy

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Brent Oil Futures

85.56

-1.62 (-1.86%)

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Natural Gas Futures

6.826

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US Coffee C Futures

220.98

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,318.20

+39.16 (+1.19%)

Summary

Neutral

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S&P 500

3,585.62

-54.85 (-1.51%)

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↑ Sell

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DAX

12,114.36

+138.81 (+1.16%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (6)

FTSE 100

6,893.81

+12.22 (+0.18%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (10)

Hang Seng

17,222.83

+56.96 (+0.33%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

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Buy (5)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,667.27

-7.66 (-0.46%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (8)

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IBEX 35

7,366.80

+66.70 (+0.91%)

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Neutral

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Sell (5)

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BASF SE NA O.N.

39.600

+0.750 (+1.93%)

Summary

Neutral

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Bayer AG NA

47.41

-0.31 (-0.64%)

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

161.80

+2.18 (+1.37%)

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Adidas AG

118.88

-5.14 (-4.14%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.918

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Siemens AG Class N

101.20

+2.94 (+2.99%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

7.646

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    EUR/USD 0.9801 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.1172 Buy  
    USD/JPY 144.79 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6403 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3830 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 141.89 Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9673 Sell  
    Gold 1,668.30 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 19.015 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.3885 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 79.74 Buy  
    Brent Oil 85.56 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 6.826 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 220.98 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,318.20 Neutral  
    S&P 500 3,585.62 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 12,114.36 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 6,893.81 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,222.83 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,667.27 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 7,366.80 Neutral  
    BASF 39.600 Neutral  
    Bayer 47.41 Sell  
    Allianz 161.80 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 118.88 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 5.918 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 101.20 Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.646 Sell  
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Cập nhật lúc 17:03:50 30/09/2022
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