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Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan Says US Recession Is Likely

04 Tháng Giêng 2023
Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan Says US Recession Is Likely © Reuters Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan Says US Recession Is Likely

(Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan said a US recession is the “most likely outcome” as the central bank tightens monetary policy to curb inflation.

While the last two monthly reports showed a deceleration in consumer-price increases, “I don’t think it will warrant a Fed reversal that is substantial enough to avoid at least a mild recession,” Greenspan — now a senior economic adviser to Advisors Capital Management — said in a question-and-answer commentary on ACM’s website distributed Tuesday.

The Fed raised interest rates aggressively last year in a bid to pull inflation down from a 40-year high, and says it will keep tightening policy until the job is done.

Wage increases, and by extension employment, still need to soften further for the pullback in inflation to be anything more than transitory, Greenspan said.

“We may have a brief period of calm on the inflation front but I think it will be too little too late,” he said.

The risk of lowering rates too quickly is that inflation “could flare up again and we would be back at square one,” Greenspan said. That could damage the Fed’s credibility as the guarantor of stable prices, he said.

“For that reason alone, I do not expect the Federal Reserve to loosen prematurely unless they deem it absolutely necessary, for example, to prevent financial market malfunctioning,” he said.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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 EUR/USD1.0995Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2695Buy
 USD/JPY147.45↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6649↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3575Neutral
 EUR/JPY162.10Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9650Neutral
 Gold2,041.60↑ Sell
 Silver25.045Sell
 Copper3.8480↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI76.58↑ Buy
 Brent Oil81.46↑ Buy
 Natural Gas2.752↑ Sell
 US Coffee C172.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,347.25↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,554.89↑ Buy
 DAX15,992.67Buy
 FTSE 1007,455.24↑ Sell
 Hang Seng17,383.50Buy
 Small Cap 20001,792.55Sell
 IBEX 3510,003.40↑ Sell
 BASF42.705Sell
 Bayer30.56↑ Sell
 Allianz230.55↑ Buy
 Adidas186.66Sell
 Lufthansa7.787↑ Sell
 Siemens AG151.42↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG11.090↑ Buy
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