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Exclusive-Saudi, UAE save oil firepower in case of winter supply crisis

By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Maha El Dahan LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) - OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates stand ready to deliver a "significant increase" in oil...
Exclusive-Saudi, UAE save oil firepower in case of winter supply crisis © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman speaks during the Jeddah Security and Development Summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, July 16, 2022. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS//File Photo

By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Maha El Dahan

LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) - OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates stand ready to deliver a "significant increase" in oil output should the world face a severe supply crisis this winter, sources familiar with the thinking of the top Gulf exporters said.

When the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided on Wednesday to raise oil output by a mere 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), it broke a taboo with a rare reference to the group's spare production capacity.

The statement referred to "the severely limited availability" of spare capacity, saying that meant it needed to kept it in reserve for "severe supply disruptions".

At first glance, that reads as an acknowledgement that OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia has almost no room to raise output, as mentioned by French President Emmanuel Macron in a conversation with U.S. President Joe Biden last month.

Three sources, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Saudi Arabia and the UAE could pump "significantly more", but would only do so if the supply crisis worsened.

"With possibly no gas in Europe this winter, with a potential price cap on Russian oil sales in the New Year, we can’t be throwing every barrel on the market at the moment," one of the sources said.

The sources did not quantify any increase, but said Saudi Arabia, the UAE and some other OPEC members possessed around 2.0-2.7 million bpd of spare production capacity.

"The only time we can prove we have more spare capacity is when it comes to a long-lasting crisis," the source said, adding that would be when OPEC members would raise output.

That could be as soon as this winter, the sources said, as the political and economic standoff between Russia, a member of OPEC+, and the West over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine show no sign of easing.

The invasion, begun on Feb. 24, which Moscow terms a "special military operation" sent European gas prices to records and lifted international Brent crude to 14-year-highs.

As a result, inflation has hit multi-decade highs and central banks have begun raising interest rates sharply.

International oil prices have however fallen since the March peaks and dropped again on Wednesday after U.S. data indicated weak fuel demand - in part as high prices have limited consumption.

Analysts said OPEC+ saw no logic in adding oil to a falling market.

"With spare capacity below 2 mbpd (million barrels per day) in August, we believe OPEC+ preferred to keep their powder dry and use their buffer to address potential future disruptions," PVM's Tamas Varga said in a note.

"There are growing fears of demand destruction and if the current trend continues, additional barrels would put unwanted downside pressure on prices and, at the same time, would unnecessarily deplete thinning spare capacity."

GOODWILL GESTURE

After Biden visited Saudi Arabia in July to press for extra oil to cool international markets, analysts had speculated OPEC+ would increase supply.

The Saudi trip was scheduled only after OPEC+ announced in early June that it would increase output in July and August. Wednesday’s meeting discussed output for September.

Most OPEC+ members have struggled to meet production targets having already exhausted their output potential following years of under-investment in new capacity.

In that context, Wednesday's decision to increase production targets by 100,000 bpd, one of the smallest increases since OPEC quotas were introduced in 1982, was a goodwill gesture, one of the sources said.

"It is small, yes, but it shows that OPEC+, given the fact that it includes so many countries, like Russia, Iran, Venezuela with all their grievances, managed to garner consensus and move forward," the source said.

Following Wednesday's decision, the White House said President Biden would remain focused on keeping fuel prices down.

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13-08-2022 11:14:38 (UTC+7)

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    EUR/USD 1.0261 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2135 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 133.46 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.7121 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.2774 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 136.93 Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9659 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,818.40 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 20.835 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.6783 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 91.88 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 98.01 Buy  
    Natural Gas 8.780 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 227.53 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,776.81 Sell  
    S&P 500 4,280.15 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 13,795.85 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 7,500.89 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 20,175.62 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 2,013.09 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,400.40 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 44.155 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 54.15 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 181.08 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 173.20 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 6.588 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 111.84 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.061 ↑ Buy  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,720
(0/ 0) # 1,655
SJC HCM6,660/ 6,760
(30/ 30) # 1,651
SJC Hanoi6,660/ 6,762
(30/ 30) # 1,653
SJC Danang6,660/ 6,762
(30/ 30) # 1,653
SJC Nhatrang6,660/ 6,762
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SJC Cantho6,660/ 6,762
(30/ 30) # 1,653
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KRW15,5018,89
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