net_left Kdata adver left

Factbox: BOJ's possible next step as market attacks yield policy

Monday, January 16, 2023
Factbox: BOJ's possible next step as market attacks yield policy © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man walks past Bank of Japan's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, June 17, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) - Markets are testing the Bank of Japan (BOJ), seeking to break its resolve to cap bond yields as soon as its policy decision on Wednesday, as rising inflation challenges the central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy.

Here are options the BOJ could take to change its yield curve control (YCC) policy, which applies a minus 0.1% rate to some funds parked with the central bank and targets the 10-year government bond yield in a range around zero.

STAND PAT

The BOJ's decision last month to widen the band around its 10-year yield target has failed to remove market distortions caused by its huge bond buying, instead prompting the market to test the 0.5% upside of the range.

Many BOJ officials want to take more time to gauge the effect of December's tweak, seeking clarity on whether wages and inflation will rise in a mutually enforcing cycle of growth.

With Governor Haruhiko Kuroda repeating the need to keep policy ultra-loose, the BOJ could opt to stand pat until his successor takes the helm in April.

MORE TWEAKS

Bond sellers broke the BOJ's 0.5% cap on Friday, less than a month after the policy tweak, forcing emergency buying from the central bank to bring the yield back down.

Its credibility tested, the BOJ may respond with additional steps.

It could make technical tweaks to smooth the yield curve, such as tinkering with its bond-buying or other market operations. Or it could widen the band around its 10-year yield target.

Many policymakers are cautious about widening the band beyond 1 percentage point as that could make it hard for the BOJ to argue that it is guiding the 10-year yield "around 0%."

ABANDON, RAISE YIELD TARGET

There is a slim chance the BOJ could raise the 10-year yield target or abandon YCC altogether.

The BOJ had hoped to wait for more evidence that wages would rise enough to keep inflation sustainably around its 2% target, before tweaking its yield targets.

Doing so now would run counter to Kuroda's pledge to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until the recent cost-driven inflation is replaced by prices rising on sustained strong demand.

The BOJ would describe any such move as a modest withdrawal of stimulus, rather than the start of a series of rate hikes. It could pledge to buy enough bonds to prevent any abrupt, disruptive spike in borrowing costs.

TWEAK GUIDANCE

The BOJ could tweak its guidance that pledges to keep interest rates at "current or lower" levels, to one that takes a more neutral view on the rate outlook.

Any such move would be a clear sign the BOJ expects economic conditions to fall in place for it to gradually raise rates.

END NEGATIVE RATE

The BOJ could abandon the 0.1% charge it applies for a small pool of excess reserves financial institutions park with the central bank.

After ditching that negative rate, the BOJ could start paying interest on excess reserves to mop up liquidity from the economy.

The BOJ only aims to take such a step when it deems Japan's economy has achieved a positive cycle, in which rising prices generates higher pay that gives households more purchasing power.

Ending negative rates would ease the pain on commercial banks, which have seen their margins crushed by years of ultra-low rates. But it would cool the economy by raising rates for bank lending and mortgage loans.

The BOJ will thus not want to rush to pull the trigger. Any such move would likely be accompanied by, or come well after, the end of the 10-year yield target.

Leave your comment
HOT AUTO TRADE BOT SOFTWARE adver right
APPROVED BROKERS
net_home_top HOT AUTO TRADE BOT SOFTWARE
02-03-2024 06:24:21 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0837

+0.0034 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

EUR/USD

1.0837

+0.0034 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

GBP/USD

1.2655

+0.0032 (+0.25%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

150.10

+0.12 (+0.08%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

AUD/USD

0.6525

+0.0031 (+0.47%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/CAD

1.3562

-0.0014 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

162.73

+0.67 (+0.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9577

+0.0020 (+0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,091.60

+36.90 (+1.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

23.345

+0.460 (+2.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

3.8590

+0.0120 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.81

+1.55 (+1.98%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

83.46

+1.55 (+1.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

1.836

-0.024 (-1.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

184.13

-0.22 (-0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,894.05

+16.28 (+0.33%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

5,137.08

+40.81 (+0.80%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

DAX

17,735.00

-0.07 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

7,682.50

+52.48 (+0.69%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

16,589.44

+78.00 (+0.47%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,075.05

+20.21 (+0.98%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

10,064.70

+63.40 (+0.63%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

47.985

+0.910 (+1.93%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Bayer AG NA

28.33

+0.24 (+0.85%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

251.80

-2.05 (-0.81%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Adidas AG

187.00

-0.12 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.191

+0.003 (+0.04%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

181.28

-1.66 (-0.91%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.566

+0.204 (+1.65%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

 EUR/USD1.0837↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2655Sell
 USD/JPY150.10Buy
 AUD/USD0.6525↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3562↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY162.73↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9577↑ Buy
 Gold2,091.60↑ Sell
 Silver23.345↑ Sell
 Copper3.8590↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI79.81Buy
 Brent Oil83.46↑ Buy
 Natural Gas1.836↑ Buy
 US Coffee C184.13Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,894.05Buy
 S&P 5005,137.08↑ Buy
 DAX17,735.00↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,682.50↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,589.44↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,075.05↑ Buy
 IBEX 3510,064.70↑ Buy
 BASF47.985↑ Sell
 Bayer28.33↑ Sell
 Allianz251.80Buy
 Adidas187.00↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.191Sell
 Siemens AG181.28Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG12.566Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,800/ 7,950
(0/ 0) # 1,808
SJC HCM7,780/ 7,980
(0/ 0) # 1,838
SJC Hanoi7,780/ 7,982
(0/ 0) # 1,840
SJC Danang7,780/ 7,982
(0/ 0) # 1,840
SJC Nhatrang7,780/ 7,982
(0/ 0) # 1,840
SJC Cantho7,780/ 7,982
(0/ 0) # 1,840
Cập nhật 02-03-2024 06:19:25
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$2,082.55+38.291.87%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.43024.910
RON 95-III23.92024.390
E5 RON 92-II22.75023.200
DO 0.05S20.77021.180
DO 0,001S-V21.76022.190
Dầu hỏa 2-K20.78021.190
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$79.34+1.880.02%
Brent$83.20+1.490.02%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.440,0024.810,00
EUR25.964,8627.389,87
GBP30.324,7531.615,27
JPY158,96168,25
KRW15,9719,35
Cập nhật lúc 06:14:07 02/03/2024
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
adver main right