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'Fear gauge' futures signals U.S. stock selling crescendo

22 Tháng Chín 2022
'Fear gauge' futures signals U.S. stock selling crescendo © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 13, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Futures tied to Wall Street's fear gauge on Wednesday sent a signal that has historically marked intense selling pressure in markets, but has sometimes preceded stock market rebounds.

The October VIX futures rose 0.28 points above the November futures on Wednesday, the widest margin since mid-June, after Wall Street's main indexes sold off following a 75 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

VIX futures, which plot volatility expectations for several months ahead, normally remain upward sloping, with near-term futures relatively less pricey than those that target coming months.

An inverted curve, when near-dated contracts are more expensive than later dated ones, suggests investors are growing more worried about near-term events, raising the cost of hedging.

Such a signal has occurred prominently five times since 2020, with two instances followed by market rebounds, including the most recent one in mid-June.

"It's usually a sign all the risk is being pulled into the here and the now," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.

"That's why often we will look at it as a capitulation indicator," Murphy said.

The two nearest VIX futures last inverted in June, amid a bout of intense selling that drove the S&P 500 (SPX) to its bear market low. The index rebounded 17% soon after, though most of that rally has been reversed on fears the Fed will be more hawkish than previously anticipated.

While an inversion this time may indicate intensifying selling pressure, it does not necessarily signal an immediate end to the market's recent slide, Murphy said. For instance, the two front month VIX futures remained inverted for a month - from mid-February through mid-March - before the stock market sell-off in the first quarter took a breather.

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29-09-2022 21:40:29 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9732

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/USD

0.9732

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

GBP/USD

1.0965

+0.0077 (+0.71%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

USD/JPY

144.63

+0.47 (+0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6453

-0.0069 (-1.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/CAD

1.3747

+0.0141 (+1.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

140.71

+0.38 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

0.9570

+0.0069 (+0.73%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,656.55

-13.45 (-0.81%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Silver Futures

18.483

-0.397 (-2.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

Copper Futures

3.3678

+0.0093 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.42

-0.73 (-0.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

87.32

-0.73 (-0.83%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Natural Gas Futures

6.638

-0.317 (-4.56%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

225.13

-3.57 (-1.56%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,257.75

-77.55 (-2.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

S&P 500

3,626.60

-92.44 (-2.49%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

DAX

11,899.07

-284.21 (-2.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

FTSE 100

6,836.50

-168.89 (-2.41%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Hang Seng

17,165.87

-85.01 (-0.49%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,657.00

-68.13 (-3.95%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

IBEX 35

7,265.06

-177.14 (-2.38%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

38.388

-1.027 (-2.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Bayer AG NA

47.27

-0.92 (-1.91%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

158.34

-2.38 (-1.48%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

123.03

-7.21 (-5.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.776

+0.004 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

97.29

-2.17 (-2.18%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

7.522

-0.332 (-4.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

    EUR/USD 0.9732 Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.0965 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 144.63 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6453 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3747 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 140.71 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9570 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,656.55 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 18.483 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.3678 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.42 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 87.32 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 6.638 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 225.13 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,257.75 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 3,626.60 Sell  
    DAX 11,899.07 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 6,836.50 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,165.87 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,657.00 Neutral  
    IBEX 35 7,265.06 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 38.388 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 47.27 Neutral  
    Allianz 158.34 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 123.03 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 5.776 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 97.29 Neutral  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.522 ↑ Buy  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,450/ 6,550
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SJC HCM6,455/ 6,555
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SJC Hanoi6,455/ 6,557
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RON 95-V23.26023.720
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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GBP25.019,9326.086,16
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KRW14,3117,43
Cập nhật lúc 17:59:34 29/09/2022
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