net_left adver left

Fed minutes may point to rate-hike endgame, new debate phase

Thursday, January 5, 2023

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve ended 2022 with a firm promise at its December policy meeting that interest rates would continue rising this year, but at a slower pace and perhaps only by another three-quarters of a percentage point.

That session's readout, due to be released at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT) on Wednesday, may provide further insight into just how the endgame of the current tightening cycle will play out, and how deeply U.S. central bank officials are beginning to weigh risks to economic growth against their top-of-mind concern about inflation.

New data released on Wednesday gave little sense that the U.S. job market is beginning to slow in the manner Fed officials hope will allow inflation to ease without a major loss of employment. The number of job openings changed little in November, and remained high in relation to the number of jobseekers - a data point Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized as a signal of continued rapid wage increases that could fuel future inflation.

The Labor Department's employment report for December is due to be released on Friday, with the latest consumer inflation data coming next week, both important benchmarks as the Fed plots its next policy move.

The overall tone of the upcoming minutes is likely to show inflation continued to have top billing among policymakers at their Dec. 13-14 meeting. The pace of price increases has been slowing for several months, but as of November the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - the personal consumption expenditures price index - was still rising at a 5.5% annual rate, more than twice the Fed's 2% target.

In an essay published on Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he felt interest rates would need to rise slightly higher than the bulk of his colleagues anticipate, and move up even more if inflation does not slow as expected.

"It will be appropriate to continue to raise rates at least at the next few meetings until we are confident inflation has peaked," wrote Kashkari, who said he sees a potential stopping point for the federal funds rate at around 5.4% this year, versus the 5.1% median projected for 2023 by all 19 Fed officials. "Any sign of slow progress that keeps inflation elevated for longer will warrant, in my view, taking the policy rate potentially much higher."

At the December meeting the Fed raised the target federal funds rate by half a percentage point to a range between 4.25% and 4.50%.

COGNIZANT OF RISKS

If there was a rough unanimity about the coming year, the projections for 2024 diverge dramatically, with one Fed official seeing the policy rate continuing at 5.625%, one seeing it slashed to 3.125%, and no more than seven officials in agreement on any particular rate in an economy that still may be flirting with or muddling through a recession.

With its descriptions of different points of view and the rough sizes of groups of policymakers offering them, the minutes could show the Fed's internal deliberations entering a new phase where risks to economic growth and employment are given more standing, and a broader range of opinions expressed about the tradeoffs needed to continue lowering inflation.

The Fed "seems united on getting policy above 5% but is quite split on exit strategy; how long to hold and how deeply and rapidly to ease on the other side," Derek Tang, economist at LH Meyer, wrote on Tuesday.

The minutes could also help pin down how much sentiment there is to ease the pace of upcoming rate increases to a quarter of a percentage point as of the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, a way to balance the competing risks the Fed may face this year if inflation continues easing and the economy continues to slow.

The Fed used three-quarters-of-a-percentage-point hikes for much of 2022, but trimmed that to a half-percentage-point increase in December and indicated it may slow the pace even further.

Though Fed Chair Jerome Powell in December remained adamant the central bank will do what it takes to control inflation, he also said officials are cognizant of the risks of overdoing it - something Fed staff also have begun to emphasize.

In the minutes for the Nov. 1-2 meeting, Fed staff put roughly even odds on a recession in 2023, and new research late last month warned that with the world's major central banks raising rates simultaneously the combined impact may be greater than anticipated as policy in one country influences bond yields, currency values and trade patterns in another.

"It is especially challenging to estimate spillovers, and there are concerns that policymakers may underestimate them. In such a case, there is a risk of overtightening that central banks need to be, and we believe are, cognizant of," Fed economists Dario Caldara, Francesco Ferrante, and Albert Queralto wrote.

Leave your comment
HOT AUTO TRADE BOT SOFTWARE adver right
APPROVED BROKERS
net_home_top HOT AUTO TRADE BOT SOFTWARE
27-01-2023 20:45:59 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0872

-0.0017 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0872

-0.0017 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2376

-0.0030 (-0.24%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

USD/JPY

129.68

-0.52 (-0.40%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.7117

+0.0003 (+0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

USD/CAD

1.3323

+0.0003 (+0.02%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

140.99

-0.80 (-0.56%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

EUR/CHF

1.0020

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Gold Futures

1,932.35

+2.35 (+0.12%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Silver Futures

23.747

-0.273 (-1.14%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Copper Futures

4.2568

-0.0107 (-0.25%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

82.22

+1.21 (+1.49%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

88.64

+1.17 (+1.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

2.801

-0.047 (-1.65%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

167.10

-0.05 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,163.65

-10.33 (-0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

S&P 500

4,060.43

+44.21 (+1.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

DAX

15,104.95

-27.90 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

FTSE 100

7,759.80

-1.31 (-0.02%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Hang Seng

22,688.90

+122.12 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,903.06

+12.75 (+0.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

9,035.73

+0.13 (+0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.595

-0.025 (-0.05%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Bayer AG NA

56.22

+0.18 (+0.32%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

221.60

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

147.64

+2.36 (+1.62%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.749

+0.022 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

143.55

-0.51 (-0.35%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.305

+0.173 (+1.43%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

 EUR/USD1.0872↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2376Neutral
 USD/JPY129.68↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7117Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3323Sell
 EUR/JPY140.99Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0020Sell
 Gold1,932.35Buy
 Silver23.747Neutral
 Copper4.2568Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI82.22↑ Buy
 Brent Oil88.64↑ Buy
 Natural Gas2.801↑ Buy
 US Coffee C167.10Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,163.65↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,060.43↑ Buy
 DAX15,104.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,759.80Sell
 Hang Seng22,688.90Buy
 Small Cap 20001,903.06↑ Buy
 IBEX 359,035.73Sell
 BASF52.595Sell
 Bayer56.22↑ Sell
 Allianz221.60↑ Sell
 Adidas147.64↑ Sell
 Lufthansa9.749↑ Sell
 Siemens AG143.55↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG12.305Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,720/ 6,820
(30/ 30) # 1,331
SJC HCM6,750/ 6,850
(60/ 60) # 1,361
SJC Hanoi6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
SJC Danang6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
SJC Nhatrang6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
SJC Cantho6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,363
Cập nhật 27-01-2023 20:46:01
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,933.64+3.070.16%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.01023.470
RON 95-III22.15022.590
E5 RON 92-II21.35021.770
DO 0.05S21.63022.060
DO 0,001S-V23.39023.850
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.80022.230
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$82.29-1.06-1.30%
Brent$88.38-1-1.15%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.260,0023.630,00
EUR24.857,5526.249,47
GBP28.270,1829.475,66
JPY175,71186,02
KRW16,4320,02
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:25 27/01/2023
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
adver main right