net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Fed seen sharpening rate hikes to smother searing inflation

11 Tháng Sáu 2022

By Ann Saphir and Lindsay (NYSE:LNN) Dunsmuir

(Reuters) - Stubbornly hot U.S. inflation is fueling bets that the Federal Reserve will get more aggressive in its bid to cool price pressures, with chances of a jumbo-sized interest rate hike seen rising and the policy rate expected to top 3% by year end.

Fed policymakers had already all but promised half-point interest rate hikes at their upcoming meeting next week and again in late July, following May's half-point hike and the start of balance sheet reductions this month. That would be more policy tightening in the space of three months than the Fed did in all of 2018.

But on Friday, traders of futures tied to the Fed policy rate began pricing in an even bolder path after U.S. Labor Department data showed sharply higher food and record gas prices pushed the consumer price index (CPI) up 8.6% last month from a year earlier. A separate University of Michigan survey showed longer-term inflation expectations rising to their highest level since 2008.

Prices of Fed funds futures contracts now reflect better-than-even odds of a 75-basis-point rate hike by July, with a one-in-five chance of that occurring next week -- up from one-in-20 before the inflation report -- and a policy rate in the 3%-3.25% range at year end.

Yields on the two-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for the Fed's policy rate, rose the most in four months on Friday and topped 3% for the first time since 2008.

"We believe that today's inflation data - both the CPI and UMich inflation expectations - are game changers that will force the Fed to switch to a higher gear and front-load policy tightening," wrote Jefferies' Aneta Markowska, who joined economists at Barclays (LON:BARC) on Friday in forecasting a 75-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's June 14-15 meeting.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, rose 6% in May, down slightly from April's 6.2% pace but far from the "clear and convincing" sign of cooling price pressures that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he needs to see before slowing rate hikes.

"Any hopes that the Fed can ease up on the pace of rate hikes after the June and July meetings now seems to be a long shot," wrote Bankrate chief financial analyst Greg McBride.

Economists at Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) concurred, and said they now forecast rates to rise to 4.125% by mid-2023.

Fed policymakers at the close of next week's meeting will release their own best guesses of how high they'll need to lift short-term rates.

In recent weeks some had expressed the hope that by September their own rate hikes, along with easing supply chain pressures and an expected shift in household spending away from scarce goods and toward services, would have started to ease price pressures and allowed them to downshift to smaller rate hikes.

Friday's inflation report suggested the opposite.

Used car prices, which had been sinking, reversed course and rose 1.8% from the prior month; airline fares rose by 12.6% from the prior month and 37.8% from a year earlier. Prices for shelter - where trends tend to be particularly persistent - rose 5.5%, the biggest jump in more than 30 years.

The Fed's current policy rate target is now 0.75%-1%. Fed officials want to get it higher without undermining a historically tight labor market and sending the economy into recession.

May's inflation report appears to make that task even harder.

"These are ugly numbers. ... I’d say we’ll probably be in a recession in the fourth quarter of this year with confirmation in the second quarter of 2023,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
27-06-2022 09:01:31 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0561

+0.0007 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/USD

1.0561

+0.0007 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

GBP/USD

1.2278

+0.0016 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

USD/JPY

134.68

-0.49 (-0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6923

-0.0026 (-0.37%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.2890

-0.0003 (-0.02%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

142.26

-0.41 (-0.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0108

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,836.45

+6.15 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Silver Futures

21.378

+0.219 (+1.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.7925

+0.0480 (+1.28%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

107.48

-0.14 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

109.09

-0.01 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

6.212

-0.069 (-1.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

223.40

-5.60 (-2.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,533.17

+96.88 (+2.82%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

S&P 500

3,911.74

+116.01 (+3.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,118.13

+205.54 (+1.59%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,208.81

+188.36 (+2.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

22,177.50

+458.44 (+2.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,765.74

+54.06 (+3.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,244.10

+137.70 (+1.70%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.215

+0.785 (+1.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

57.79

-0.75 (-1.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.20

+2.20 (+1.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

170.36

+3.30 (+1.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.966

-0.310 (-4.94%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

102.62

+3.36 (+3.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.919

+0.407 (+4.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0561↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2278↑ Sell
 USD/JPY134.68↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6923Sell
 USD/CAD1.2890Neutral
 EUR/JPY142.26↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0108Buy
 Gold1,836.45↑ Buy
 Silver21.378↑ Buy
 Copper3.7925Sell
 Crude Oil WTI107.48↑ Buy
 Brent Oil109.09↑ Buy
 Natural Gas6.212↑ Sell
 US Coffee C223.40↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,533.17Neutral
 S&P 5003,911.74↑ Buy
 DAX13,118.13↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,208.81↑ Buy
 Hang Seng22,177.50↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,765.74↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,244.10Sell
 BASF42.215↑ Buy
 Bayer57.79↑ Sell
 Allianz181.20↑ Sell
 Adidas170.36↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.966↑ Sell
 Siemens AG102.62↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.919↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,775/ 6,845
(15/ 5) # 1,676
SJC HCM6,795/ 6,865
(10/ 0) # 1,696
SJC Hanoi6,795/ 6,867
(10/ 0) # 1,698
SJC Danang6,795/ 6,867
(10/ 0) # 1,698
SJC Nhatrang6,795/ 6,867
(10/ 0) # 1,698
SJC Cantho6,795/ 6,867
(10/ 0) # 1,698
Cập nhật 27-06-2022 09:01:34
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,835.05+7.770.43%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V33.47034.130
RON 95-III32.87033.520
E5 RON 92-II31.30031.920
DO 0.05S30.01030.610
DO 0,001S-V30.81031.420
Dầu hỏa 2-K28.78029.350
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$106.39-0.96-0.91%
Brent$109.08-1.03-0.95%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.080,0023.390,00
EUR23.932,6125.273,13
GBP27.815,2929.001,83
JPY167,64177,48
KRW15,5718,97
Cập nhật lúc 08:54:39 27/06/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán