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Global cenbanks lift rates by nearly 1,200 bps in July

03 Tháng Tám 2022
Global cenbanks lift rates by nearly 1,200 bps in July © Reuters. Plastic letters arranged to read "Inflation" are placed on Chinese Yuan banknote in this illustration taken, June 12, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

By Karin Strohecker and Vincent Flasseur

LONDON (Reuters) - Major developed and emerging market central banks around the globe delivered nearly 1,200 basis points in interest rate hikes in July alone, ramping up their fight against multi-decade high inflation with Canada surprising markets with an outsized move.

Central banks overseeing five of the 10 most heavily traded currencies delivered 325 basis points of rate hikes between them last month. This brings the total volume of rate hikes since the start of the year across G10 central banks to 1,100 basis points.

However, July's tally was less than the 350 basis points seven central banks delivered in June.

"We've reached peak hawkishness of the central banks," Christian Kopf, head of fixed income portfolio management at Union Investment, told Reuters.

G10 interest rates: https://tmsnrt.rs/3JhR5Fv

"Central banks have made it clear that they will not overdo it with the rate hikes," Kopf said, adding that was also the message conveyed by U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.

July was dotted with some eye catching moves. Canada emerged as the chief hawk, stunning markets by delivering the first 100-basis-point rate increase among the world's advanced economies in the current cycle, lifting its key policy rate to 1.5%.

New Zealand delivered its sixth straight interest rate rise and signalled it remained comfortable with its planned aggressive tightening path to restrain runaway inflation.

And then of course the big one: The Fed delivered its second straight 75-basis-point rate hike, reinforcing its commitment to contain red-hot inflation running at 40-year highs.

There was no let up for policymakers in emerging markets, where inflation had been on a tear for much longer than in developed economies.

Nine out of 18 central banks delivered 850 bps of rate hikes in July. In total, emerging market central banks have raised interest rates by 5,265 bps year-to-date - nearly double the 2,745 bps for the whole of 2021, calculations show.

"Emerging market central banks remain more worried about inflation than growth," BofA's David Hauner said in a recent note to clients.

Emerging markets interest rate moves: https://tmsnrt.rs/3OOcZ4j

Hungary moved twice in July, jacking up its base rate by 300 basis points to 10.75% with borrowing costs into double-digit territory for the first time since late 2008 - and flagging more hikes ahead.

Colombia and Chile piled in with a 150 bps and 75 bps hike respectively, though emerging market uber-hawk Brazil, which has lifted rates to 13.25 bps already in June, took a breather.

However, emerging markets have also seen cuts with Russia reducing interest rates ratcheted up to 20% in the wake of its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, which sparked sweeping sanctions.

Inflation pressures would remain a headache for policy makers, said Tobias Adrian, director at the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"The magnitude of the inflation surge has been a surprise to central banks and markets, and there remains substantial uncertainty about the outlook for inflation," Adrian wrote in a blog on Monday https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USIMF/bulletins/326222c.

"Inflation risks appear strongly tilted to the upside," Adrian said, adding there was a substantial risk that price pressures were becoming entrenched and expectations unanchored.

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 Gold1,760.30↑ Buy
 Silver18.965Sell
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 Crude Oil WTI89.97Buy
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 US Coffee C216.20↑ Sell
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 Hang Seng19,773.03Neutral
 Small Cap 20001,957.35↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,338.10↑ Buy
 BASF43.035↑ Buy
 Bayer54.40Sell
 Allianz176.02↑ Sell
 Adidas165.60↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.275Buy
 Siemens AG108.20↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.496Neutral
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