net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Global markets quake as central banks grow more hawkish

18 Tháng Sáu 2022
Global markets quake as central banks grow more hawkish © Reuters. A Specialist trader works inside a booth on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Tom Westbrook and Dhara Ranasinghe

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Expectations for how drastically central banks need to tighten monetary policy to fight soaring inflation have taken another leap higher, shaking up global markets and rattling investors.

Among the eye-catching moves from monetary authorities in recent days have been a 75-basis-point increase from the Federal Reserve - the largest U.S. rate rise in nearly three decades - the Swiss National Bank’s first hike in 15 years and another 25-basis-point increase by the Bank of England.

Investors are bracing for more bold moves. In the United States, Fed funds futures on Friday were pricing in a 44.6% chance that the fed funds rate will reach 3.5% by the end of the year, from the current 1.58% level, according to the CME's FedWatch. That probability was less than 1% a week ago.

The increasing hawkishness has fueled wild moves in global markets, as central banks rush to unwind the monetary support measures that have helped propel asset prices higher for years.

Worries that the Fed's aggressive rate hike path will push the economy into recession have grown in recent days, slamming stocks – which entered bear market territory earlier this week when the S&P 500 extended a decline from its record to more than 20%. The index’s 6% decline this week has put it on pace for its worst weekly drop since March 2020.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index is down about 17% this year, while Japan’s Nikkei share average is off about 10%.

Shifting rate expectations have also sparked big swings in bond and currency markets. The ICE (NYSE:ICE) BofAML MOVE Index, which tracks Treasury volatility, stands at its highest level since March 2020, while the Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) Currency Volatility Index, which measures expectations for gyrations in FX, has also headed higher this year.

Markets have revamped European Central Bank rate hike bets since last week’s ECB meeting, with the ECB now expected to deliver a 25-bps hike in July and at least one 50-bps hike by September. Some economists believe that plans to create a new tool to contain bond market stress should allow the central bank more scope to deliver aggressive rate hikes if needed.

Money markets now price in around 272 basis points of hikes by July 2023, putting rates at 2.1% by that date. That compares with a rise to 1.5% by early-2024, priced at the start of June. [ECBWATCH]

In Australia, futures show markets braced for the benchmark cash rate, currently 0.85%, breaching 4% next year against central bank officials' guidance for a peak in rates around 2.5%.

Britain's benchmark rate is now at its highest since January 2009, when borrowing costs were slashed as the global financial crisis raged. It was the fifth time the BoE has raised rates since December when it became the first major central bank to tighten monetary policy following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Overall, global central banks have already raised rates 124 times so far this year, compared with 101 increases for all of 2021 and six in 2020, according to data from BofA Global Research.

One notable exception to the trend has been the Bank of Japan, which has stuck with ultra-easy settings and a vow to buy 10-year bonds every day to anchor borrowing costs.

Yet speculators who've bet on an ultimate capitulation do not seem particularly deterred. The Japanese yen is sliding, the yield curve is being bent out of shape and the bond market is almost buckling in the tussle between hedge funds and policymakers.

Tighter monetary policy is coming on the heels of the worst inflation many countries have seen in decades. U.S. consumer prices, for instance, grew at their fastest pace since 1981 in May.

Higher rates, soaring oil prices and market turmoil are all contributing to the tightest financial conditions since 2009, according to a Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) index that uses metrics such as exchange rates, equity swings and borrowing costs to compile the most widely used financial conditions indexes.

Tighter financial conditions may translate to businesses and households curtailing plans for spending, saving and investing. A 100-basis-point tightening in conditions cuts growth by one percentage point in the following year, according to Goldman.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
27-06-2022 06:15:40 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0569

+0.0015 (+0.14%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0569

+0.0015 (+0.14%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2291

+0.0029 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

135.16

-0.01 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6955

+0.0007 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.2891

-0.0002 (-0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/JPY

142.85

+0.19 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0111

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,834.40

+4.10 (+0.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

21.220

+0.061 (+0.29%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

3.7742

+0.0297 (+0.79%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

106.27

-1.35 (-1.25%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Brent Oil Futures

107.80

-1.30 (-1.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Natural Gas Futures

6.207

-0.074 (-1.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

223.40

-5.60 (-2.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,533.17

+96.88 (+2.82%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

S&P 500

3,911.74

+116.01 (+3.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,118.13

+205.54 (+1.59%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,208.81

+188.36 (+2.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

21,719.06

+445.19 (+2.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,765.74

+54.06 (+3.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,244.10

+137.70 (+1.70%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.215

+0.785 (+1.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

57.79

-0.75 (-1.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.20

+2.20 (+1.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

170.36

+3.30 (+1.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.966

-0.310 (-4.94%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

102.62

+3.36 (+3.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.919

+0.407 (+4.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0569Buy
 GBP/USD1.2291↑ Buy
 USD/JPY135.16↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6955↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2891↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY142.85↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0111Neutral
 Gold1,834.40↑ Sell
 Silver21.220↑ Sell
 Copper3.7742Buy
 Crude Oil WTI106.27Sell
 Brent Oil107.80↑ Sell
 Natural Gas6.207↑ Sell
 US Coffee C223.40↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,533.17Neutral
 S&P 5003,911.74↑ Buy
 DAX13,118.13↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,208.81↑ Buy
 Hang Seng21,719.06↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,765.74↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,244.10Sell
 BASF42.215↑ Buy
 Bayer57.79↑ Sell
 Allianz181.20↑ Sell
 Adidas170.36↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.966↑ Sell
 Siemens AG102.62↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.919↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,760/ 6,840
(6,760/ 6,840) # 1,696
SJC HCM6,785/ 6,865
(0/ 0) # 1,716
SJC Hanoi6,785/ 6,867
(0/ 0) # 1,718
SJC Danang6,785/ 6,867
(0/ 0) # 1,718
SJC Nhatrang6,785/ 6,867
(0/ 0) # 1,718
SJC Cantho6,785/ 6,867
(0/ 0) # 1,718
Cập nhật 27-06-2022 06:15:42
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,832.51+5.230.29%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V33.47034.130
RON 95-III32.87033.520
E5 RON 92-II31.30031.920
DO 0.05S30.01030.610
DO 0,001S-V30.81031.420
Dầu hỏa 2-K28.78029.350
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$106.29+1.251.18%
Brent$109.81+3.262.97%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.080,0023.390,00
EUR23.828,4125.163,09
GBP27.747,3328.930,97
JPY167,31177,13
KRW15,4518,82
Cập nhật lúc 06:13:05 27/06/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán