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Goldman Sachs' investment team bullish on equities -report

By Carolina Mandl NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Investment Strategy Group expects U.S. equities to generate positive returns for investors in 2023 even if the...
Goldman Sachs' investment team bullish on equities -report © Reuters. A view of the Goldman Sachs global headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 15, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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By Carolina Mandl

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Investment Strategy Group expects U.S. equities to generate positive returns for investors in 2023 even if the economy enters a recession, according to its outlook report released on Friday.

The bank's wealth management team expect the benchmark S&P 500 to end 2023 at between 4,200 and 4,300 points, up to 12% higher than its 2022 year-end level. Last year, the S&P fell 19.4% in its worst year since 2008, reflecting higher interest rates and recession fears.

The team estimates a 45% to 55% chance that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, but believes any such downturn would likely be mild. Stock prices could initially fall in 2023 but recover before year-end, the bank's analysts said, adding that equities historically have tended to bottom three months before the end of recessions.

"Because not all paths in a recession lead to stock market losses at the end of 2023, we believe the odds of positive U.S. equity returns exceed those of a recession this year," Chief Investment Officer Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani and her team said in the report, adding investors are better off staying the course and even considering increasing their exposure to stocks if they weaken further.

The S&P 500 is up 3.8% year-to-date.

Goldman Sachs's team also considers indexes in Europe, Japan, Britain and emerging markets will deliver gains to investors this year.

They said there is a "fog of uncertainty still facing investors", but overall the outlook seems more positive for both equities and bonds. "After hitting an icy patch last year, we see financial markets regaining traction in 2023," it said.

A diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds is likely to generate a 9% return this year if a recession is avoided, Goldman said. If it occurs but recedes soon, investors may still have high single-digit returns. But if it lasts longer, the portfolio would cause low to mid single-digit losses, they said.

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31-01-2023 18:10:33 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0829

-0.0015 (-0.14%)

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EUR/USD

1.0829

-0.0015 (-0.14%)

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Moving Avg:

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GBP/USD

1.2317

-0.0035 (-0.28%)

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Neutral

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USD/JPY

130.35

-0.09 (-0.07%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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AUD/USD

0.6996

-0.0063 (-0.89%)

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Buy

Moving Avg:

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USD/CAD

1.3459

+0.0075 (+0.56%)

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EUR/JPY

141.16

-0.29 (-0.20%)

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EUR/CHF

1.0047

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76.75

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4,017.77

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21,842.33

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1,885.72

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9,017.45

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    EUR/USD 1.0829 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2317 Neutral  
    USD/JPY 130.35 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6996 Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3459 Sell  
    EUR/JPY 141.16 Neutral  
    EUR/CHF 1.0047 Neutral  
    Gold 1,904.60 Neutral  
    Silver 23.218 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.1303 Neutral  
    Crude Oil WTI 76.75 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 83.41 Sell  
    Natural Gas 2.627 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 170.80 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,130.35 Buy  
    S&P 500 4,017.77 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 15,017.85 Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,717.55 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 21,842.33 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,885.72 Neutral  
    IBEX 35 9,017.45 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 52.340 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 56.30 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 219.18 Sell  
    Adidas 145.73 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 9.610 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 142.82 Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.218 ↑ Buy  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,640/ 6,720
(20/ 20) # 1,298
SJC HCM6,620/ 6,760
(-20/ 20) # 1,339
SJC Hanoi6,620/ 6,762
(-20/ 20) # 1,341
SJC Danang6,620/ 6,762
(-20/ 20) # 1,341
SJC Nhatrang6,620/ 6,762
(-20/ 20) # 1,341
SJC Cantho6,620/ 6,762
(-20/ 20) # 1,341
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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