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Goldman Sachs' investment team bullish on equities -report

By Carolina Mandl NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Investment Strategy Group expects U.S. equities to generate positive returns for investors in 2023 even if the...
Goldman Sachs' investment team bullish on equities -report © Reuters. A view of the Goldman Sachs global headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 15, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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By Carolina Mandl

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Investment Strategy Group expects U.S. equities to generate positive returns for investors in 2023 even if the economy enters a recession, according to its outlook report released on Friday.

The bank's wealth management team expect the benchmark S&P 500 to end 2023 at between 4,200 and 4,300 points, up to 12% higher than its 2022 year-end level. Last year, the S&P fell 19.4% in its worst year since 2008, reflecting higher interest rates and recession fears.

The team estimates a 45% to 55% chance that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, but believes any such downturn would likely be mild. Stock prices could initially fall in 2023 but recover before year-end, the bank's analysts said, adding that equities historically have tended to bottom three months before the end of recessions.

"Because not all paths in a recession lead to stock market losses at the end of 2023, we believe the odds of positive U.S. equity returns exceed those of a recession this year," Chief Investment Officer Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani and her team said in the report, adding investors are better off staying the course and even considering increasing their exposure to stocks if they weaken further.

The S&P 500 is up 3.8% year-to-date.

Goldman Sachs's team also considers indexes in Europe, Japan, Britain and emerging markets will deliver gains to investors this year.

They said there is a "fog of uncertainty still facing investors", but overall the outlook seems more positive for both equities and bonds. "After hitting an icy patch last year, we see financial markets regaining traction in 2023," it said.

A diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds is likely to generate a 9% return this year if a recession is avoided, Goldman said. If it occurs but recedes soon, investors may still have high single-digit returns. But if it lasts longer, the portfolio would cause low to mid single-digit losses, they said.

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09-12-2023 16:24:38 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0764

-0.0028 (-0.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0764

-0.0028 (-0.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2550

-0.0040 (-0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

144.95

+0.82 (+0.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

AUD/USD

0.6577

-0.0024 (-0.36%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.3582

-0.0012 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

155.99

+0.40 (+0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

EUR/CHF

0.9471

+0.0024 (+0.25%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,020.80

-25.60 (-1.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

23.290

-0.769 (-3.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Copper Futures

3.8340

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

71.26

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Sell

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Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Brent Oil Futures

75.65

+1.60 (+2.16%)

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Sell

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Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

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2.552

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Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

US Coffee C Futures

177.70

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,522.25

+48.48 (+1.08%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,604.37

+18.78 (+0.41%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

DAX

16,759.22

+130.23 (+0.78%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,554.47

+40.75 (+0.54%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

16,324.50

-18.00 (-0.11%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

US Small Cap 2000

1,880.82

+12.57 (+0.67%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

IBEX 35

10,223.40

+77.40 (+0.76%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

45.190

+0.095 (+0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

31.90

+0.07 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

243.80

+1.65 (+0.68%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Adidas AG

193.36

+2.26 (+1.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

8.364

-0.045 (-0.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Siemens AG Class N

162.42

+0.92 (+0.57%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (2)

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Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.824

+0.258 (+2.23%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

    EUR/USD 1.0764 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2550 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 144.95 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6577 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3582 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 155.99 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9471 Buy  
    Gold 2,020.80 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 23.290 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.8340 Neutral  
    Crude Oil WTI 71.26 Sell  
    Brent Oil 75.65 Sell  
    Natural Gas 2.552 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 177.70 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,522.25 Neutral  
    S&P 500 4,604.37 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 16,759.22 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 7,554.47 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 16,324.50 Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,880.82 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,223.40 Neutral  
    BASF 45.190 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 31.90 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 243.80 Sell  
    Adidas 193.36 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 8.364 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 162.42 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.824 Buy  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,310/ 7,390
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