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Goldman Sachs raises probability of U.S. recession in 2023 to 30%

Wednesday, June 22, 2022
Goldman Sachs raises probability of U.S. recession in 2023 to 30% © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A girl speaks with her mother near a landmark statue of a bull in New York August 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) sees a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%, amid record-high inflation and a weak macroeconomic backdrop fueled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The latest forecast comes about a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve rolled out its biggest rate hike since 1994 to stem a surge in inflation and as several other central banks also took aggressive steps to tighten monetary policy.

Goldman Sachs also downgraded its U.S. GDP estimates below consensus for the next two years to reflect the drag on the economy.

"The Fed has front-loaded rate hikes more aggressively, terminal rate expectations have risen, and financial conditions have tightened further and now imply a substantially larger drag on growth — somewhat more than we think is necessary," Goldman's economists said in a note from late-Monday.

Goldman Sachs forecast a 25% conditional probability of the United States entering a recession in 2024 if it avoids one in 2023, adding that this meant that there was a 48% cumulative probability of a recession over the next two years compared to its prior forecast of 35%.

"We are increasingly concerned that the Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices rise further, even if activity slows sharply." it added.

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08-07-2022 00:49:20 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0153

-0.0028 (-0.28%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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EUR/USD

1.0153

-0.0028 (-0.28%)

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↑ Sell

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GBP/USD

1.2002

+0.0072 (+0.60%)

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↑ Sell

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USD/JPY

136.04

+0.12 (+0.08%)

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AUD/USD

0.6836

+0.0060 (+0.89%)

Summary

Neutral

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1.2987

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138.13

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 EUR/USD1.0153↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2002↑ Sell
 USD/JPY136.04↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6836Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2987Neutral
 EUR/JPY138.13↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9894↑ Buy
 Gold1,738.95↑ Sell
 Silver19.168↑ Sell
 Copper3.5555↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI103.56Neutral
 Brent Oil105.37↑ Sell
 Natural Gas6.190↑ Sell
 US Coffee C218.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,488.50↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,895.54↑ Buy
 DAX12,843.22Neutral
 FTSE 1007,189.08↑ Sell
 Hang Seng21,643.58↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,768.30↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,122.50↑ Buy
 BASF41.300↑ Buy
 Bayer56.59Sell
 Allianz178.46Buy
 Adidas169.28↑ Buy
 Lufthansa5.764↑ Buy
 Siemens AG97.71↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG7.983↑ Sell
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Cập nhật lúc 18:49:11 07/07/2022
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