Goldman Sachs raises probability of U.S. recession to 30% over next year
22 Tháng Sáu 2022
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A girl speaks with her mother near a landmark statue of a bull in New York August 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) sees a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%, amid record-high inflation and a weak macroeconomic backdrop fueled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The latest forecast comes about a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve rolled out its biggest rate hike since 1994 to stem a surge in inflation and as several other central banks also took aggressive steps to tighten monetary policy.
Goldman Sachs also downgraded its U.S. GDP estimates below consensus for the next two years to reflect the drag on the economy.
"The Fed has front-loaded rate hikes more aggressively, terminal rate expectations have risen, and financial conditions have tightened further and now imply a substantially larger drag on growth — somewhat more than we think is necessary," Goldman's economists said in a note from late-Monday.
"We now see a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year (vs. 15% previously) and a 25% conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if we avoid one in the first year, implying a 48% cumulative probability at a two-year horizon (vs. 35% previously)," the economists said.
"We are increasingly concerned that the Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices rise further, even if activity slows sharply," the note said.
(The story corrects to remove reference to 2023 and adds "over next year" in headline; replaces paragraph 5 with comment from research note)
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27-06-2022 10:17:00 (UTC+7)
EUR/USD
1.0554
0.0000 (0.00%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
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Sell (10)
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EUR/USD
1.0554
0.0000 (0.00%)
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↑ SellMoving Avg:
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Indicators:
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GBP/USD
1.2273
+0.0011 (+0.09%)
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USD/JPY
134.84
-0.34 (-0.25%)
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↑ SellMoving Avg:
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AUD/USD
0.6920
-0.0027 (-0.40%)
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↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
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Sell (8)
USD/CAD
1.2880
-0.0013 (-0.10%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (3)
Sell (9)
Indicators:
Buy (4)
Sell (3)
EUR/JPY
142.31
-0.35 (-0.25%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
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Sell (10)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (8)
EUR/CHF
1.0110
+0.0001 (+0.01%)
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Sell (4)
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Buy (1)
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Gold Futures
1,837.30
+7.00 (+0.38%)
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Sell (2)
Silver Futures
21.407
+0.248 (+1.17%)
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↑ BuyMoving Avg:
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Buy (10)
Sell (0)
Copper Futures
3.7955
+0.0510 (+1.36%)
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↑ BuyMoving Avg:
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Sell (2)
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Buy (8)
Sell (1)
Crude Oil WTI Futures
107.89
+0.27 (+0.25%)
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↑ SellMoving Avg:
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Sell (8)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (10)
Brent Oil Futures
109.46
+0.36 (+0.33%)
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↑ SellMoving Avg:
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Sell (7)
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Natural Gas Futures
6.213
-0.068 (-1.08%)
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NeutralMoving Avg:
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Sell (12)
Indicators:
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Sell (2)
US Coffee C Futures
223.40
-5.60 (-2.45%)
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↑ BuyMoving Avg:
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Sell (2)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (0)
Euro Stoxx 50
3,533.17
+96.88 (+2.82%)
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NeutralMoving Avg:
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Sell (8)
Indicators:
Buy (4)
Sell (4)
S&P 500
3,911.74
+116.01 (+3.06%)
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↑ BuyMoving Avg:
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Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (0)
DAX
13,118.13
+205.54 (+1.59%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
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Sell (10)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (7)
FTSE 100
7,208.81
+188.36 (+2.68%)
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↑ BuyMoving Avg:
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Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (1)
Hang Seng
22,375.50
+656.44 (+3.02%)
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BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (8)
Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (0)
US Small Cap 2000
1,765.74
+54.06 (+3.16%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
IBEX 35
8,244.10
+137.70 (+1.70%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (3)
Sell (9)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (5)
BASF SE NA O.N.
42.215
+0.785 (+1.89%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (1)
Bayer AG NA
57.79
-0.75 (-1.28%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (5)
Sell (7)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (7)
Allianz SE VNA O.N.
181.20
+2.20 (+1.23%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (2)
Sell (10)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (4)
Adidas AG
170.36
+3.30 (+1.98%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (1)
Sell (11)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (5)
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
5.966
-0.310 (-4.94%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (4)
Sell (8)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (6)
Siemens AG Class N
102.62
+3.36 (+3.39%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (9)
Sell (3)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (1)
Deutsche Bank AG
8.919
+0.407 (+4.78%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (0)
| EUR/USD | 1.0554 | ↑ Sell | |||
| GBP/USD | 1.2273 | Neutral | |||
| USD/JPY | 134.84 | ↑ Sell | |||
| AUD/USD | 0.6920 | ↑ Sell | |||
| USD/CAD | 1.2880 | Neutral | |||
| EUR/JPY | 142.31 | ↑ Sell | |||
| EUR/CHF | 1.0110 | Neutral |
| Gold | 1,837.30 | ↑ Buy | |||
| Silver | 21.407 | ↑ Buy | |||
| Copper | 3.7955 | ↑ Buy | |||
| Crude Oil WTI | 107.89 | ↑ Sell | |||
| Brent Oil | 109.46 | ↑ Sell | |||
| Natural Gas | 6.213 | Neutral | |||
| US Coffee C | 223.40 | ↑ Buy |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 3,533.17 | Neutral | |||
| S&P 500 | 3,911.74 | ↑ Buy | |||
| DAX | 13,118.13 | ↑ Sell | |||
| FTSE 100 | 7,208.81 | ↑ Buy | |||
| Hang Seng | 22,375.50 | Buy | |||
| Small Cap 2000 | 1,765.74 | ↑ Buy | |||
| IBEX 35 | 8,244.10 | Sell |
| BASF | 42.215 | ↑ Buy | |||
| Bayer | 57.79 | ↑ Sell | |||
| Allianz | 181.20 | ↑ Sell | |||
| Adidas | 170.36 | ↑ Sell | |||
| Lufthansa | 5.966 | ↑ Sell | |||
| Siemens AG | 102.62 | ↑ Buy | |||
| Deutsche Bank AG | 8.919 | ↑ Buy |
| Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC # So hôm qua # Chênh TG | |
|---|---|
| SJC Eximbank | 6,775 / 6,845 (15 / 5) # 1,674 |
| SJC HCM | 6,795/ 6,865 (10 / 0) # 1,694 |
| SJC Hanoi | 6,795/ 6,867 (10 / 0) # 1,696 |
| SJC Danang | 6,795/ 6,867 (10 / 0) # 1,696 |
| SJC Nhatrang | 6,795/ 6,867 (10 / 0) # 1,696 |
| SJC Cantho | 6,795/ 6,867 (10 / 0) # 1,696 |
| Cập nhật 27-06-2022 10:17:02 | |
| Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây! | |
| ↀ Giá vàng thế giới | ||
|---|---|---|
| $1,835.31 | +8.03 | 0.44% |
| ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu | ||
|---|---|---|
| Sản phẩm | Vùng 1 | Vùng 2 |
| RON 95-V | 33.470 | 34.130 |
| RON 95-III | 32.870 | 33.520 |
| E5 RON 92-II | 31.300 | 31.920 |
| DO 0.05S | 30.010 | 30.610 |
| DO 0,001S-V | 30.810 | 31.420 |
| Dầu hỏa 2-K | 28.780 | 29.350 |
| ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | $107.86 | -0.31 | -0.29% |
| Brent | $109.42 | -1.38 | -1.27% |
| $ Tỷ giá Vietcombank | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ngoại tệ | Mua vào | Bán ra |
| USD | 23.080,00 | 23.390,00 |
| EUR | 23.932,61 | 25.273,13 |
| GBP | 27.815,29 | 29.001,83 |
| JPY | 167,64 | 177,48 |
| KRW | 15,57 | 18,97 |
| Cập nhật lúc 10:12:36 27/06/2022 Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái | ||
