net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Goldman Sachs raises probability of U.S. recession to 30% over next year

22 Tháng Sáu 2022
Goldman Sachs raises probability of U.S. recession to 30% over next year © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A girl speaks with her mother near a landmark statue of a bull in New York August 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) sees a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%, amid record-high inflation and a weak macroeconomic backdrop fueled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The latest forecast comes about a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve rolled out its biggest rate hike since 1994 to stem a surge in inflation and as several other central banks also took aggressive steps to tighten monetary policy.

Goldman Sachs also downgraded its U.S. GDP estimates below consensus for the next two years to reflect the drag on the economy.

"The Fed has front-loaded rate hikes more aggressively, terminal rate expectations have risen, and financial conditions have tightened further and now imply a substantially larger drag on growth — somewhat more than we think is necessary," Goldman's economists said in a note from late-Monday.

"We now see a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year (vs. 15% previously) and a 25% conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if we avoid one in the first year, implying a 48% cumulative probability at a two-year horizon (vs. 35% previously)," the economists said.

"We are increasingly concerned that the Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices rise further, even if activity slows sharply," the note said.

(The story corrects to remove reference to 2023 and adds "over next year" in headline; replaces paragraph 5 with comment from research note)

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
27-06-2022 10:17:00 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0554

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

EUR/USD

1.0554

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

GBP/USD

1.2273

+0.0011 (+0.09%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

USD/JPY

134.84

-0.34 (-0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

AUD/USD

0.6920

-0.0027 (-0.40%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

USD/CAD

1.2880

-0.0013 (-0.10%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

EUR/JPY

142.31

-0.35 (-0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

1.0110

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

Gold Futures

1,837.30

+7.00 (+0.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Silver Futures

21.407

+0.248 (+1.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.7955

+0.0510 (+1.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

107.89

+0.27 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Brent Oil Futures

109.46

+0.36 (+0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Natural Gas Futures

6.213

-0.068 (-1.08%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

223.40

-5.60 (-2.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,533.17

+96.88 (+2.82%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

S&P 500

3,911.74

+116.01 (+3.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,118.13

+205.54 (+1.59%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,208.81

+188.36 (+2.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

22,375.50

+656.44 (+3.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,765.74

+54.06 (+3.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,244.10

+137.70 (+1.70%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.215

+0.785 (+1.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

57.79

-0.75 (-1.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.20

+2.20 (+1.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

170.36

+3.30 (+1.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.966

-0.310 (-4.94%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

102.62

+3.36 (+3.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.919

+0.407 (+4.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0554↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2273Neutral
 USD/JPY134.84↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6920↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2880Neutral
 EUR/JPY142.31↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0110Neutral
 Gold1,837.30↑ Buy
 Silver21.407↑ Buy
 Copper3.7955↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI107.89↑ Sell
 Brent Oil109.46↑ Sell
 Natural Gas6.213Neutral
 US Coffee C223.40↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,533.17Neutral
 S&P 5003,911.74↑ Buy
 DAX13,118.13↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,208.81↑ Buy
 Hang Seng22,375.50Buy
 Small Cap 20001,765.74↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,244.10Sell
 BASF42.215↑ Buy
 Bayer57.79↑ Sell
 Allianz181.20↑ Sell
 Adidas170.36↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.966↑ Sell
 Siemens AG102.62↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.919↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,775/ 6,845
(15/ 5) # 1,674
SJC HCM6,795/ 6,865
(10/ 0) # 1,694
SJC Hanoi6,795/ 6,867
(10/ 0) # 1,696
SJC Danang6,795/ 6,867
(10/ 0) # 1,696
SJC Nhatrang6,795/ 6,867
(10/ 0) # 1,696
SJC Cantho6,795/ 6,867
(10/ 0) # 1,696
Cập nhật 27-06-2022 10:17:02
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,835.31+8.030.44%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V33.47034.130
RON 95-III32.87033.520
E5 RON 92-II31.30031.920
DO 0.05S30.01030.610
DO 0,001S-V30.81031.420
Dầu hỏa 2-K28.78029.350
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$107.86-0.31-0.29%
Brent$109.42-1.38-1.27%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.080,0023.390,00
EUR23.932,6125.273,13
GBP27.815,2929.001,83
JPY167,64177,48
KRW15,5718,97
Cập nhật lúc 10:12:36 27/06/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán