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Here’s What to Expect From the Fed’s Policy Review Today

27 Tháng Bảy 2022
Here’s What to Expect From the Fed’s Policy Review Today © Bloomberg. The seal of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors across the street from the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Sunday, Dec. 19, 2021. The Federal Reserve chair has tempered his ambition to restore the labor market to its pre-pandemic strength, as the central bank confronts surging inflation and a workforce still constrained by Covid-19. Photographer: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Ten-year Treasury yields have slumped almost 75 basis points in just a matter of weeks as investors fret about the prospect of a recession, providing a glum backdrop to the two-day Federal Reserve meeting that concludes today. 

Here’s what traders are watching for:

Size of hike:

  • While the markets were starting to price in a 100-basis point increase soon after those towering June inflation prints, that positioning has mellowed in the face of comments from Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard expressing a preference for 75 basis points.
  • While the Fed has gone into the traditional quiet period and there being no murmur suggesting otherwise from usual Deep Throat media outlets, the tail risk of a bigger move has faded.

Dissent:

  • Fed Kansas President Esther George, who voted in favor of a 50-basis point increase at the June meeting, may do an encore. Before the Fed’s blackout period, she had remarked that “more abrupt changes in interest rates could create strains, either in the economy or financial markets, that would undermine the Fed’s ability to deliver on the higher path of rates communicated.”
  • It’s not clear what’s weighing on the mind of the vice-chair for supervision, Michael Barr, as he hasn’t made public comments on monetary policy since he was sworn in.
  • Fed Boston President Susan Collins, who took office this month, remarked that “inflation is too high and addressing this is a key priority,” suggesting she may vote with the majority.

Statement:

  • The Fed is likely to acknowledge recent signs of weakness in the economy stemming from July’s PMI numbers, new-home sales and waning consumer confidence.
  • The Fed’s second paragraph from its June statement stated that “the committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.” Any tweak to that sentence would be construed as an acknowledgment that the Fed is attuned to economic risks, though I think it’s premature and unlikely given that inflation is way above its target.

Guidance:

  • There being no dot plot accompanying this meeting, traders will parse the language of the Fed statement to see what it thinks of the path ahead in light of signs that the economy is slowing.
  • Interest-rate traders are factoring in about 100 basis points of tightening in the remainder of the year excluding Wednesday’s expected increase, but that pricing is very much work in progress. So the Fed’s language and Chair Jerome Powell’s thoughts on the Fed’s intended path from here will be the key to any market reaction.
  • If the Fed were to signal that it won’t be spooked by pockets of weakness in the economy, expect front-end yields to trade with an upward bias. The longer end may, however, rise initially but turn down subsequently if traders estimate that the Fed’s bias will tilt the economy downward into a recession.
  • NOTE: Ven Ram is a cross-asset strategist for Bloomberg’s Markets Live. The observations are his own and not intended as investment advice. For more markets commentary, see the MLIV blog

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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11-08-2022 22:51:04 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0335

+0.0038 (+0.37%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

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Indicators:

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EUR/USD

1.0335

+0.0038 (+0.37%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (11)

Indicators:

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GBP/USD

1.2221

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

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USD/JPY

132.63

-0.24 (-0.18%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

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Buy (0)

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AUD/USD

0.7117

+0.0040 (+0.57%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

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USD/CAD

1.2751

-0.0022 (-0.17%)

Summary

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Buy (4)

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EUR/JPY

137.07

+0.25 (+0.18%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (3)

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Buy (0)

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EUR/CHF

0.9710

+0.0007 (+0.07%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (0)

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Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Gold Futures

1,806.15

-7.55 (-0.42%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

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Silver Futures

20.325

-0.417 (-2.01%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (8)

Sell (4)

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Buy (9)

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Copper Futures

3.6923

+0.0428 (+1.17%)

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↑ Sell

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

93.22

+1.29 (+1.40%)

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Brent Oil Futures

98.63

+1.23 (+1.26%)

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Sell

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Natural Gas Futures

8.428

+0.226 (+2.76%)

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Buy

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US Coffee C Futures

224.18

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↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

Sell (0)

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Buy (9)

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,756.05

+6.70 (+0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

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S&P 500

4,222.00

+11.76 (+0.28%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Buy (1)

Sell (8)

DAX

13,694.51

-6.42 (-0.05%)

Summary

Buy

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Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,469.19

-37.92 (-0.51%)

Summary

Sell

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Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Hang Seng

20,082.43

+471.59 (+2.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.90

+3.99 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

IBEX 35

8,375.78

+22.98 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

BASF SE NA O.N.

43.425

-1.020 (-2.29%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Bayer AG NA

51.68

-0.22 (-0.42%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

179.00

+0.50 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

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Buy (8)

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Adidas AG

172.02

-1.34 (-0.77%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.526

-0.085 (-1.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

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Siemens AG Class N

109.92

+0.74 (+0.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.864

+0.035 (+0.40%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

 EUR/USD1.0335↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2221Neutral
 USD/JPY132.63Sell
 AUD/USD0.7117Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2751↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY137.07↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9710↑ Sell
 Gold1,806.15↑ Buy
 Silver20.325↑ Buy
 Copper3.6923↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI93.22↑ Sell
 Brent Oil98.63Sell
 Natural Gas8.428Buy
 US Coffee C224.18↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,756.05↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,222.00↑ Sell
 DAX13,694.51Buy
 FTSE 1007,469.19Sell
 Hang Seng20,082.43↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,973.90↑ Sell
 IBEX 358,375.78↑ Sell
 BASF43.425Neutral
 Bayer51.68↑ Buy
 Allianz179.00↑ Buy
 Adidas172.02↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.526↑ Buy
 Siemens AG109.92↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.864Neutral
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