net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

High interest rates bring winter gloom to Canada's housing market

16 Tháng Mười Một 2022
High interest rates bring winter gloom to Canada's housing market © Reuters. A home for sale on Emerald Street in Hamilton Ontario, Canada May 6, 2022. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio

By Julie Gordon

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's housing market has gone cold, with buyers sidelined by soaring borrowing costs and sellers holding off listing in hopes of a spring rally, while higher interest rates mean prices need to fall more before any rebound materializes, experts say.

The Bank of Canada has signaled its historic tightening campaign is nearing an end, though economists expect the central bank's policy rate to remain at a 15-year high of 4.25% or 4.5% throughout 2023, putting downward pressure on prices.

At the same time, Canada needs to build 3.5 million more homes by 2030, according to the country's national housing agency, to address a current shortage as well as rising demand from millennials and newcomers to the country as the government boosts immigration targets.

"We do have quite a bit of fundamental demand still out there ... but the market just can't clear at current prices because of where interest rates have gone," said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

"Prices have to adjust and it's taking time."

BMO forecasts a 20% decline in home prices, peak to trough. They are already down 10% from February's peak, after falling 1.2% in October from September, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data showed on Tuesday.

Graphic: Canada home prices fall off record high https://graphics.reuters.com/CANADA-ECONOMY/HOUSING2/klvygkkyavg/chart.png

Home sales edged up in October, suggesting buyers and sellers "will likely continue coming off the sidelines" moving into 2023, CREA Chair Jill Oudil said in a statement.

But she cautioned it will be a far cry from the boom triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, when prices soared 52.4% in the two years to February 2022 as record-low interest rates, the desire for more space, and speculation set the market on fire.

The Bank of Canada has increased its policy rate by 350 basis points since March to the current 3.75%, making borrowing more expensive, and is widely expected to hike again in December.

"It's scary for someone that's looking to buy," said Victor Tran, a mortgage expert with online broker Ratesdotca. Variable rate mortgages - home loans in which the interest rate fluctuates based on market conditions - have more than tripled since March, with strict stress tests making qualification even tougher.

Peggy Hill, who runs a real estate firm in Barrie, Ontario, has had many first-time buyers throw in the towel on a purchase because the monthly payments on a typical home in the city, about 110 km (68 miles) from Toronto, would simply be too high.

"We killed our first-time buyers," she said. "They're gone ... they cannot afford to service that debt."

Graphic: Canadian home sales tumble amid rising rates https://graphics.reuters.com/CANADA-ECONOMY/HOUSING1/egpbykkgdvq/chart.png

'BIG DETERIORATION'

And it's not just the resale market feeling the pinch. Toronto-area condo presales plunged 79% in the third quarter, according to data from Urbanation, with 189 projects reporting zero sales in the quarter.

"You can tell there's been a pretty big deterioration in market confidence, particularly amongst investors," said Shaun Hildebrand, president of the Toronto-based real estate data consulting firm, adding that investors own about 70% of condo units under construction in the region.

"If investors aren't interested in buying condos, the whole market starts to slow down," he said.

Adding to the pressure, a record 30,000 condo units are set to be completed next year. But far higher mortgage rates mean some owners may not qualify and they could be forced to sell their units, leading to a flood of listings, experts said.

At the same time, more sellers than ever are waiting it out in hopes that spring will bring a boom in demand and rising prices, Hill said.

"They're all banking on things just changing magically. And I don't see it," she said.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
03-12-2022 08:28:39 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0540

+0.0018 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0540

+0.0018 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2292

+0.0039 (+0.31%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

134.30

-0.96 (-0.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6795

-0.0014 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

USD/CAD

1.3473

+0.0041 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

141.59

-0.77 (-0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9876

+0.0016 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Gold Futures

1,811.40

-3.80 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

23.355

+0.514 (+2.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

Copper Futures

3.8550

+0.0375 (+0.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

80.34

-0.88 (-1.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

85.42

-1.46 (-1.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Natural Gas Futures

6.222

-0.516 (-7.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

US Coffee C Futures

162.08

-3.67 (-2.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,977.90

-6.60 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,071.70

-4.87 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

14,529.39

+39.09 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

FTSE 100

7,556.23

-2.26 (-0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

18,675.35

-61.09 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Small Cap 2000

1,889.98

+8.30 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,382.60

-22.70 (0.00%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.730

+0.870 (+1.82%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

54.84

-0.19 (-0.35%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

202.65

-1.10 (-0.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Adidas AG

124.26

-0.66 (-0.53%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.738

+0.162 (+2.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

134.70

+1.04 (+0.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.024

+0.119 (+1.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0540↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2292Buy
 USD/JPY134.30↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6795↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3473↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY141.59Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9876↑ Sell
 Gold1,811.40↑ Sell
 Silver23.355↑ Sell
 Copper3.8550↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI80.34↑ Buy
 Brent Oil85.42↑ Buy
 Natural Gas6.222↑ Sell
 US Coffee C162.08↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,977.90↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,071.70↑ Buy
 DAX14,529.39↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,556.23↑ Sell
 Hang Seng18,675.35↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,889.98↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,382.60Neutral
 BASF48.730↑ Buy
 Bayer54.84Neutral
 Allianz202.65↑ Sell
 Adidas124.26↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.738↑ Buy
 Siemens AG134.70↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.024↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,600/ 6,670
(0/ 0) # 1,414
SJC HCM6,620/ 6,700
(0/ 0) # 1,450
SJC Hanoi6,620/ 6,702
(0/ 0) # 1,452
SJC Danang6,620/ 6,702
(0/ 0) # 1,452
SJC Nhatrang6,620/ 6,702
(0/ 0) # 1,452
SJC Cantho6,620/ 6,702
(0/ 0) # 1,452
Cập nhật 03-12-2022 08:28:41
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,798.03-4.41-0.24%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.83024.300
RON 95-III22.70023.150
E5 RON 92-II21.67022.100
DO 0.05S23.21023.670
DO 0,001S-V25.19025.690
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.56024.030
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.930,0024.240,00
EUR24.695,6126.077,28
GBP28.769,6729.995,10
JPY174,05184,25
KRW16,0519,55
Cập nhật lúc 08:23:39 03/12/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán