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India cenbank raises key rate 50 bps as inflation seen staying elevated

05 Tháng Tám 2022

By Swati Bhat and Chris Thomas

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India's key policy repo rate was raised by 50 basis points on Friday, the third increase in the current cycle to cool stubbornly high inflation that has remained above the central bank's tolerance band for six straight months.

With June retail inflation hitting 7%, economists polled by Reuters had expected the third rate hike in four months, but views were widely split between a 25 bps to a 50 bps increase.

The monetary policy committee (MPC) raised the key lending rate or the repo rate to 5.40%.

"Inflation is projected to remain above the upper tolerance level of 6% through the first three quarters of 2022-23, entailing the risk of destabilising inflation expectations and triggering second round effects," the MPC said in its statement.

The Standing Deposit Facility rate and the Marginal Standing Facility Rate were adjusted higher by the same quantum to 5.15% and 5.65%, respectively.

The RBI caught markets off guard with a 40 bps hike at an unscheduled meeting in May, followed by a 50 bps increase in June, but prices have shown little sign of cooling off yet.

With inflation staying elevated more rate hikes are all but inevitable in coming months, economists say.

"The RBI today raised the repo rate by 50 bps to 5.40% as we had anticipated, and struck a relatively hawkish tone despite inflation surprising to the downside in recent months," said Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics.

"It's clear that the tightening cycle still has legs and we expect another 100 bps of hikes by early 2023," he added.

Spiking prices for food and fuel have hammered consumer spending and darkened the near-term outlook for India's economic growth, which slowed to the lowest in a year in the first three months of 2022.

The MPC retained its GDP growth projection for 2022/23 at 7.2% while its inflation forecast remained unchanged at 6.7%.

"With growth momentum expected to be resilient despite headwinds from the external sector, monetary policy should persevere further in its stance of withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation moves close to the target of 4% over the medium term, while supporting growth," Governor Shaktikanta Das said in his address.

Das said the decision to increase rates was a unanimous one.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield climbed after the RBI's decision and was at 7.25% at 0600 GMT. It had declined to 7.1073% earlier on Friday after ending at 7.1566% on Thursday.

The partially convertible rupee firmed slightly to 79.0675 per dollar, from 79.16 prior to the policy decision. The local unit had closed at 79.4650 in the previous session.

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11-08-2022 21:35:36 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0347Neutral
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 USD/JPY132.57↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7123↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2734↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY137.20↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9719↑ Buy
 Gold1,808.35↑ Sell
 Silver20.427↑ Sell
 Copper3.7040↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI92.30↑ Sell
 Brent Oil97.78↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.313↑ Sell
 US Coffee C222.83Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 503,760.95↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,254.00↑ Buy
 DAX13,729.41↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,475.33↑ Buy
 Hang Seng20,082.43↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,000.75↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,380.80↑ Sell
 BASF43.780Neutral
 Bayer51.68↑ Sell
 Allianz179.22Sell
 Adidas173.57Buy
 Lufthansa6.545↑ Sell
 Siemens AG110.07↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.925↑ Sell
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