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JP Morgan forecasts euro zone recession as gas crisis looms

28 Tháng Bảy 2022
JP Morgan forecasts euro zone recession as gas crisis looms © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Price tags are seen as a woman shops at a local market in Nice, France, June 7, 2022. REUTERS/Eric Gaillard///File Photo

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro zone's looming gas crisis and Italy's political troubles will push the bloc into a mild recession and limit European Central Bank interest rate hikes, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) forecast on Wednesday.

The bank's economists cut their economic forecasts, predicting euro zone GDP growth to slow to 0.5% this quarter and and then contract 0.5% in both the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.

"Our new forecasts assume gas prices at €150/MWh" the bank said.

They added that those higher prices would push up headline inflation by 1.2 percentage points in the near term although it would drop again next year due to the economy's negative reaction.

"We expect the ECB to deliver another 50 basis points of hikes by year-end," compared to 75 bps expected previously JPMorgan added.

"We now expect 25 bp in September and 25bp in October" removing an additional 25bp hike that had been forecast for December, the U.S. bank said.

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12-08-2022 16:47:18 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0303

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1.0303

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133.40

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137.46

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0.9704

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 EUR/USD1.0303Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2150Buy
 USD/JPY133.40↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7112Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2756↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY137.46↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9704↑ Buy
 Gold1,802.30↑ Sell
 Silver20.267Buy
 Copper3.7052↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI94.59Buy
 Brent Oil100.14Neutral
 Natural Gas8.663↑ Sell
 US Coffee C222.75↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,777.95↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,207.27Buy
 DAX13,792.36↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,513.70Neutral
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 IBEX 358,448.17Neutral
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 Bayer53.80↑ Buy
 Allianz181.60↑ Buy
 Adidas171.91↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.572↑ Sell
 Siemens AG112.17↑ Buy
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Cập nhật lúc 16:40:33 12/08/2022
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