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JPMorgan says EM debt at 'mercy' of Fed, cuts Nigeria from overweight

10 Tháng Năm 2022
JPMorgan says EM debt at 'mercy' of Fed, cuts Nigeria from overweight © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A JPMorgan logo is seen in New York City, U.S., January 10, 2017. REUTERS/Stephanie Keith/File Photo

By Rachel Savage

LONDON (Reuters) - Emerging market sovereign debt is at the "mercy" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analysts said in a note on Monday, as the U.S. central bank's rate raises drain capital from developing markets.

JPMorgan removed Nigeria from its list of emerging market sovereign recommendations that investors should be 'overweight' in, saying the country had not taken advantage of high oil prices, while adding Serbia and Uzbekistan.

Last week, the Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by half a percentage point, the biggest jump in 22 years, as it seeks to tame high inflation while its rate increases also buffet higher-yielding emerging markets.

JPMorgan's Emerging Markets Bond Index Global Diversified (EMBIGD) index has fallen 16% this year, the analysts said, "with most of the losses having come from rates" and $4 billion in net outflows from emerging markets since mid-April.

"The external and fundamental backdrop has become increasingly difficult for EM sovereigns," the analysts said. "The COVID lockdown in China poses further downside risks."

They noted that riskier sovereign yields were now 10.6%, the highest level since the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020, reducing market access and increasing the risk of debt defaults.

However, the analysts said the "front-loaded pain" for emerging market bonds, which they said had begun underperforming in September 2021, was a positive.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February caused commodity prices to spike, benefiting exporters. The over-performance of bonds issued by oil exporters now "looks to have played out", JPMorgan said.

The analysts said Nigeria's national oil company did not transfer any revenue to the government from January to March this year, due to petrol subsidies and low oil production, as it moved Nigeria's debt out of the bank's 'overweight' category.

"Nigeria's fiscal woes amid a worsening global risk backdrop have raised market concerns despite a positive oil environment," they said.

It moved Serbia to 'overweight' as risks had been priced in and the country had high reserves and a fiscally cautious government, the note said, while relatively low debt despite Russian exposure led them to put Uzbekistan in the same category.

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EUR/USD

1.0735

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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EUR/USD

1.0735

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GBP/USD

1.2531

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USD/JPY

126.86

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AUD/USD

0.7109

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USD/CAD

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EUR/JPY

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US Coffee C Futures

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,647.56

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S&P 500

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20,112.10

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1,768.22

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IBEX 35

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48.755

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Bayer AG NA

63.29

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Adidas AG

171.20

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6.496

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Siemens AG Class N

114.20

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 EUR/USD1.0735↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2531↑ Buy
 USD/JPY126.86↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7109↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2818↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY136.20↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0312↑ Buy
 Gold1,865.50Buy
 Silver22.115Neutral
 Copper4.3133↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI110.26↑ Buy
 Brent Oil111.03Neutral
 Natural Gas8.875↑ Buy
 US Coffee C213.83↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,647.56Neutral
 S&P 5003,941.48Neutral
 DAX13,919.75↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,484.35Sell
 Hang Seng20,112.10↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,768.22↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,631.20↑ Buy
 BASF48.755↑ Buy
 Bayer63.29Neutral
 Allianz197.86Sell
 Adidas171.20Neutral
 Lufthansa6.496↑ Buy
 Siemens AG114.20↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.084↑ Sell
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
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