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Marketmind - "Alarm stage": this is not a drill

Friday, June 24, 2022
Marketmind -

A look at the day ahead in markets from Julien Ponthus.

Investment banks such as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Citi have been keeping busy this week, updating their models, highlighting heightened risks of a U.S. recession and fuelling further nervousness across global markets in the process.

And while Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the risk that monetary tightening could lead to economic contraction, Europeans have been hit by a combo of recession warnings of their own.

Thursday's data showed slowing business activity across the continent, just as Germany triggered the "alarm stage" of its emergency gas plan in response to falling Russian supply.

It didn't take long for markets to decide which way to move. Bond yields across the euro zone fell, taking little notice of Norway's central bank delivering its largest single interest rate increase since 2002.

The economic implications of Russia cutting off gas to Europe to bolster political leverage, a possibility raised by the head of the International Energy Agency, triggered heavy selling in the euro and Germany's DAX stocks benchmark.

Still, the fall in oil and commodity prices is offering hope: Brent crude is down 10% in June and set to snap a six-month streak of gains.

That suggests peak inflation may not be too far off and is driving better sentiment towards equities, with the global benchmark set for its first weekly gain in June.

All in all though, the first half of 2022 is still shaping up as one of the worst ever for financial markets. And if angst about higher interest rates starts to fade, markets may turn their focus towards downgrades to companies' future earnings.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Friday:

-Japan's inflation tops BOJ target for 2nd month in test of monetary stance

-UK retail sales fall by 0.5% in May

-UK consumer gloom hits record as economic misery mounts

-German IFO

-US building permits/University of Michigan survey/inflation expectations/new home sales

-ECB bank supervisor Edouard Fernandez-Bollo, Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia speaks at UBS event in Zurich

GRAPHIC: Russian gas flows to Europe slow (https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/lbvgnxjzepq/chart.png)

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30-06-2022 05:39:42 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0445

+0.0006 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0445

+0.0006 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2124

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

136.52

-0.06 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.6880

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.2893

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

142.60

+0.01 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/CHF

0.9972

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Gold Futures

1,819.00

+1.50 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

Silver Futures

20.733

-0.139 (-0.67%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

3.7772

+0.0055 (+0.15%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

109.58

+0.05 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

112.25

-1.55 (-1.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

6.430

+0.006 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

228.05

+10.30 (+4.73%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,514.32

-34.97 (-0.99%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

S&P 500

3,818.83

-2.72 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,003.35

-228.47 (-1.73%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,312.32

-11.09 (-0.15%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

21,996.89

-422.08 (-1.88%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

US Small Cap 2000

1,713.32

-25.52 (-1.47%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

IBEX 35

8,188.00

-129.50 (-1.56%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

BASF SE NA O.N.

41.580

-1.445 (-3.36%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Bayer AG NA

57.62

-2.61 (-4.33%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

183.72

+0.62 (+0.34%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

170.02

-0.30 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.813

-0.222 (-3.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

101.40

-2.74 (-2.63%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.571

-0.292 (-3.29%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

    EUR/USD 1.0445 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2124 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 136.52 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6880 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.2893 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 142.60 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9972 Neutral  
    Gold 1,819.00 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 20.733 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.7772 Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 109.58 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 112.25 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 6.430 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 228.05 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,514.32 Neutral  
    S&P 500 3,818.83 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 13,003.35 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,312.32 Sell  
    Hang Seng 21,996.89 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 1,713.32 Neutral  
    IBEX 35 8,188.00 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 41.580 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 57.62 Neutral  
    Allianz 183.72 Buy  
    Adidas 170.02 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 5.813 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 101.40 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 8.571 Neutral  
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Cập nhật 30-06-2022 05:39:45
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RON 95-V33.47034.130
RON 95-III32.87033.520
E5 RON 92-II31.30031.920
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GBP27.597,2728.774,53
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Cập nhật lúc 18:53:49 29/06/2022
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