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Marketmind: New year, same ol' Fed

04 Tháng Giêng 2023
Marketmind: New year, same ol' Fed © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

The start of the year is packed with a string of economic data, including U.S. job openings, that will help drive the market in the near term, with minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting taking the spotlight on Wednesday.

Much has happened since that Fed meeting in December, with China taking further steps to dismantle its "zero-COVID" policy and the Bank of Japan shocking the market by widening the range for its 10-year bond yield cap. What has not changed is the market's desire (hope, even) for the Fed to pivot away from its monetary tightening path.

When the Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps last month, after four straight 75-bps hikes, it stressed that rates may need to remain higher for longer to tame sticky inflation. Markets, though, are pricing in rate cuts for late 2023. Surely, something's gotta give.

While the minutes are likely to paint a clearer picture of the path the Fed wants to take, what will also interest investors is whether there is any divergence between doves and hawks regarding how high the terminal rate should go.

"While we would like to see if there are any hints of a serious disagreement with respect to the rate path, it is hard to see how the minutes would paint a different picture compared to the relatively concentrated forecasts in the dot plot," Natwest strategists said.

The new year has brought some cheer to Asian equities, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 1.3% and set for a third straight day of gains. The U.S. dollar is swaying after spiking 1% overnight, while oil slid some more after diving 4% on Tuesday.

Some of the cheer seems to have filtered through to European equities, with futures indicating a higher open, but whether the gains are held will likely depend on the clutch of economic data expected later in the day.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

Economic events: Eurozone, Germany and France S&P December PMI data; CPI data for Switzerland and France; Minutes from Fed's December meeting; JOLTS job openings

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30-09-2023 00:13:03 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0566

+0.0006 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/USD

1.0566

+0.0006 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

GBP/USD

1.2192

-0.0005 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

USD/JPY

149.46

+0.17 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6429

+0.0006 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

USD/CAD

1.3563

+0.0077 (+0.57%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

157.91

+0.16 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

0.9672

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,867.25

-11.35 (-0.60%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

22.497

-0.244 (-1.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

3.7295

+0.0215 (+0.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

91.19

-0.52 (-0.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Brent Oil Futures

92.58

-0.52 (-0.56%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Natural Gas Futures

2.942

-0.003 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

145.83

-1.37 (-0.93%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,173.35

+11.79 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

S&P 500

4,284.08

-15.62 (-0.36%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

DAX

15,386.58

+63.08 (+0.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,608.08

+6.23 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Hang Seng

17,822.00

+471.00 (+2.71%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,779.75

-14.56 (-0.81%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

IBEX 35

9,428.00

+1.20 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.950

+0.305 (+0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

45.45

+0.10 (+0.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

225.70

-2.85 (-1.25%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

166.62

+9.76 (+6.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.506

-0.023 (-0.31%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

135.66

+0.08 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.450

+0.068 (+0.65%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

 EUR/USD1.0566↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2192↑ Sell
 USD/JPY149.46↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6429↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3563↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY157.91↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9672↑ Buy
 Gold1,867.25↑ Sell
 Silver22.497↑ Sell
 Copper3.7295↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI91.19↑ Sell
 Brent Oil92.58↑ Sell
 Natural Gas2.942↑ Sell
 US Coffee C145.83Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,173.35↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,284.08↑ Sell
 DAX15,386.58↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,608.08↑ Sell
 Hang Seng17,822.00Buy
 Small Cap 20001,779.75↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,428.00↑ Sell
 BASF42.950↑ Sell
 Bayer45.45↑ Sell
 Allianz225.70Sell
 Adidas166.62↑ Sell
 Lufthansa7.506Neutral
 Siemens AG135.66↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG10.450↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,830/ 6,880
(0/ 0) # 1,361
SJC HCM6,820/ 6,890
(0/ 0) # 1,372
SJC Hanoi6,820/ 6,892
(0/ 0) # 1,374
SJC Danang6,820/ 6,892
(0/ 0) # 1,374
SJC Nhatrang6,820/ 6,892
(0/ 0) # 1,374
SJC Cantho6,820/ 6,892
(0/ 0) # 1,374
Cập nhật 30-09-2023 00:13:05
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,851.59-15.15-0.81%
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Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V26.27026.790
RON 95-III25.74026.250
E5 RON 92-II24.19024.670
DO 0.05S23.59024.060
DO 0,001S-V24.45024.930
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.81024.280
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$90.39+8.380.10%
Brent$92.45+6.790.08%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.090,0024.460,00
EUR25.089,2726.466,85
GBP28.963,5430.196,84
JPY158,64167,93
KRW15,6319,04
Cập nhật lúc 18:53:44 29/09/2023
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