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NY Fed survey finds reduced near-term inflation expectations in December

10 Tháng Giêng 2023
NY Fed survey finds reduced near-term inflation expectations in December © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A customer counts his cash at the register while purchasing an item at a Best Buy store in Flushing, New York March 27, 2010. REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi

By Michael S. Derby

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. households see weaker near-term inflation and are expecting notably less spending, even as they foresee their incomes continuing to rise, the New York Federal Reserve said Monday in its December Survey of Consumer Expectations.

The bank reported that respondents to its monthly survey said they see inflation a year from now at 5%, from 5.2% in November, for the lowest reading since July 2021. Meanwhile, respondents’ expectations for inflation three years from now were unchanged at 3% while projections of inflation in five years’ time stood at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in November.

The decline in near-term inflation expectations comes as the Fed has been aggressively pushing forward with rate rises aimed at lowering some of the highest price pressure readings in decades.

Fed officials have been confident that will succeed in part because they have viewed longer-run inflation expectations data as relatively stable compared with their 2% target. Central bankers believe where inflation is expected to go exerts a strong influence on where it is now.

Respondents to the survey had discordant expectations about their outlooks for income and spending. In December, they saw future expected household income gains of 4.6%, up a touch from the month before, for the highest reading in the survey’s history.

But expected spending tumbled, falling from November’s 6.9% expected rise to 5.9% in December. “The decline was broad based across age and income groups,” the bank said in its report.

Households also expected last month that access to credit in the future would improve, as households said their present financial situation had gotten better.

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27-01-2023 22:31:35 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0867↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2377↑ Sell
 USD/JPY129.88↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7114↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3311↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY141.17↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0033↑ Buy
 Gold1,925.95Buy
 Silver23.652↑ Sell
 Copper4.2272↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI81.62↑ Sell
 Brent Oil88.19↑ Sell
 Natural Gas2.883↑ Buy
 US Coffee C168.80↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,171.95↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,070.50Neutral
 DAX15,132.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,760.10↑ Sell
 Hang Seng22,688.90Buy
 Small Cap 20001,903.95↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,037.72↑ Sell
 BASF52.655↑ Sell
 Bayer56.26↑ Sell
 Allianz221.30↑ Sell
 Adidas147.75↑ Buy
 Lufthansa9.745Sell
 Siemens AG144.09↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG12.328↑ Sell
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