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Oil Dips Ahead of Fed Rate Decision, Anticipated U.S. Crude Build

By Barani Krishnan AiVIF.com -- Oil prices fell a day before a Federal Reserve rate decision that’s likely to deliver a third straight substantial rate hike for the United...
Oil Dips Ahead of Fed Rate Decision, Anticipated U.S. Crude Build © Reuters.
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By Barani Krishnan

AiVIF.com -- Oil prices fell a day before a Federal Reserve rate decision that’s likely to deliver a third straight substantial rate hike for the United States. 

The dollar also rallied for a third time in four sessions, adding to the weight on oil prices as industry analysts forecast a third straight weekly build in domestic crude stockpiles.

The dollar jumped on bets that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points for a third time in a row when it meets Wednesday to rein in inflation. Those expectations weighed across risk assets on Tuesday, including stocks, with Wall Street key indexes from the Dow to S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down nearly 2% each.

“The dollar is key and the Fed is key; they're going to kill demand for anything inflationary," Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, said in comments carried by Reuters.

The Fed isn’t the only one considering higher rates – central bank policymakers in the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Japan will also meet during the week as the global fight against inflation intensifies. China, however, left its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Tuesday as the world's second-biggest oil user tries to balance sluggish economic growth against its weakening yuan currency. 

“Energy traders await a wrath of central bank decisions that will trigger mid-cycle slowdowns that will cripple the short-term crude demand outlook,” Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA, said. “Commodities are broadly weaker as this week is all about aggressive monetary policy tightening to combat inflation.”

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, which serves as the U.S. crude benchmark, settled down $1.28, or 1.5%, at $84.45 per barrel, after a session low at $83.03. 

Brent, the London-traded global benchmark for oil, settled down $1.38, or 1.5%, at $90.62 per barrel, versus its intraday low of $89.83.

Also weighing on oil was U.S. Transportation Department data showing domestic vehicle travel in July fell 3.3% to 286.6 billion miles, the second consecutive monthly decline in American driving in the face of high fuel prices.

Market participants are, meanwhile, on the lookout for U.S. weekly oil inventory data, due after market settlement from API, or the American Petroleum Institute.

API will release at approximately 16:30 ET (20:30 GMT) a snapshot of closing balances on U.S. crude, gasoline and distillates for the week ended September 16. The numbers serve as a precursor to official inventory data on the same due from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

For last week, analysts tracked by AiVIF.com expect the EIA to report a crude stockpile build of 2.161 million barrels, versus the 2.442-million barrel rise reported during the week to September 9.

On the gasoline inventory front, the consensus is for a draw of 431,000 barrels over the 1.767-million barrel decline in the previous week.

With distillate stockpiles, the expectation is for a climb of 420,000 barrels versus the prior week’s gain of 4.219 million.

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29-09-2022 05:35:52 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9724

-0.0010 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (8)

EUR/USD

0.9724

-0.0010 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (8)

GBP/USD

1.0867

-0.0021 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

USD/JPY

144.21

+0.04 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6514

-0.0008 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.3617

+0.0012 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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EUR/JPY

140.23

-0.10 (-0.07%)

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EUR/CHF

0.9496

-0.0004 (-0.05%)

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1,666.65

-2.05 (-0.12%)

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18.875

-0.035 (-0.19%)

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3.3807

-0.0008 (-0.02%)

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81.75

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87.98

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7.010

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227.80

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3,335.30

+6.65 (+0.20%)

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Neutral

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3,719.04

+71.75 (+1.97%)

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DAX

12,183.28

+43.60 (+0.36%)

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Neutral

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FTSE 100

7,005.39

+20.80 (+0.30%)

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Neutral

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17,250.88

-609.43 (-3.41%)

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Buy

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1,725.13

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7,442.20

-3.50 (-0.05%)

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39.415

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Adidas AG

130.24

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5.772

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99.46

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7.854

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    EUR/USD 0.9724 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.0867 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 144.21 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6514 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3617 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 140.23 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9496 Neutral  
    Gold 1,666.65 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 18.875 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.3807 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.75 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 87.98 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 7.010 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 227.80 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,335.30 Neutral  
    S&P 500 3,719.04 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 12,183.28 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 7,005.39 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 17,250.88 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,725.13 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 7,442.20 Neutral  
    BASF 39.415 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 48.19 Neutral  
    Allianz 160.72 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 130.24 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 5.772 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 99.46 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.854 ↑ Sell  
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SJC Eximbank6,410/ 6,510
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SJC HCM6,420/ 6,520
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$1,658.78 +29.67 1.82%
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.580,0023.890,00
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GBP24.732,3625.786,46
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