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Retail Investors May Have Just Capitulated

By Louis Juricic This past week was the heaviest week of retail selling since the summer of 2020, according to data compiled by JPMorgan. The information might be met with shrugs...
Retail Investors May Have Just Capitulated © Reuters. Retail Investors May Have Just Capitulated

By Louis Juricic

This past week was the heaviest week of retail selling since the summer of 2020, according to data compiled by JPMorgan.

The information might be met with shrugs in some circles. The S&P 500 is down 23% from its peak and the Nasdaq 100 is lower by 30%, so it’s probably no surprise that retail investors are net sellers. However, among contrarian investors, the data point has garnered some interest.

As Warren Buffett once said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

Nathan Rothschild put it much more bluntly, "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

Retail traders net sold $633 million this past week, -2.3 standard deviations below the one-year average, the heaviest week of selling since September 2020, wrote JPMorgan Strategist Peng Cheng in the note.

When decomposed into ETF vs. single stocks, the net inflow into ETFs was eclipsed by outflows from single stocks, the analyst noted. Although S&P 500 ETFs attracted healthy net buying, the NASDAQ 100 ETFs were net sold.

At the single-stock level, all sectors were aggressively sold, Chen noted. Consumer Discretionary order imbalance, led by Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), ended the week 3 standard deviations below the one-year average. This was followed by energy.

Chen later summarized the findings in an interview with Bloomberg: “It’s fair to say that retail has capitulated.”

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08-07-2022 00:44:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0153

-0.0028 (-0.28%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0153

-0.0028 (-0.28%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2004

+0.0074 (+0.62%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

136.04

+0.10 (+0.08%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

AUD/USD

0.6836

+0.0061 (+0.90%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

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USD/CAD

1.2985

-0.0051 (-0.39%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (11)

Indicators:

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EUR/JPY

138.12

-0.26 (-0.18%)

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Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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EUR/CHF

0.9893

+0.0013 (+0.13%)

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1,738.55

+2.05 (+0.12%)

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19.177

+0.018 (+0.09%)

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Copper Futures

3.5565

+0.1485 (+4.36%)

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Neutral

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

103.41

+4.88 (+4.95%)

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Neutral

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Brent Oil Futures

105.30

+4.61 (+4.58%)

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Neutral

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Natural Gas Futures

6.204

+0.694 (+12.60%)

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US Coffee C Futures

218.53

-0.67 (-0.31%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,488.50

+66.66 (+1.95%)

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↑ Sell

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S&P 500

3,893.10

+48.02 (+1.25%)

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↑ Buy

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DAX

12,843.22

+248.70 (+1.97%)

Summary

Neutral

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FTSE 100

7,189.08

+81.31 (+1.14%)

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↑ Sell

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Hang Seng

21,643.58

+56.92 (+0.26%)

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↑ Buy

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US Small Cap 2000

1,767.75

+37.51 (+2.17%)

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↑ Buy

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IBEX 35

8,122.50

+173.90 (+2.19%)

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↑ Buy

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BASF SE NA O.N.

41.300

+1.550 (+3.90%)

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56.59

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Sell

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

178.46

+2.96 (+1.69%)

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Adidas AG

169.28

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.764

+0.254 (+4.61%)

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Siemens AG Class N

97.71

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7.983

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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 EUR/USD1.0153Buy
 GBP/USD1.2004↑ Buy
 USD/JPY136.04Neutral
 AUD/USD0.6836↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2985↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY138.12Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9893↑ Buy
 Gold1,738.55↑ Sell
 Silver19.177↑ Sell
 Copper3.5565Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI103.41Neutral
 Brent Oil105.30Neutral
 Natural Gas6.204↑ Sell
 US Coffee C218.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,488.50↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,893.10↑ Buy
 DAX12,843.22Neutral
 FTSE 1007,189.08↑ Sell
 Hang Seng21,643.58↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,767.75↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,122.50↑ Buy
 BASF41.300↑ Buy
 Bayer56.59Sell
 Allianz178.46Buy
 Adidas169.28↑ Buy
 Lufthansa5.764↑ Buy
 Siemens AG97.71↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG7.983↑ Sell
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