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Russian central bank says economic downturn to deepen in Q3

02 Tháng Tám 2022
Russian central bank says economic downturn to deepen in Q3 © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Pedestrians walk across Nevsky Avenue in central Saint Petersburg, Russia May 28, 2022. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's economic contraction will deepen in the third quarter of 2022, while its strong current account surplus, the key driver of the rouble's recent rebound, will shrink in the second half of this year, the central bank said on Monday.

Russia's export-dependent economy is plunging into recession after Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, triggering sweeping financial and economic sanctions from the West.

Gross domestic product will fall by 7% in the third quarter after contracting by 4.3% in the second quarter, the central bank said, projecting the economy will start recovering in the second half of 2023.

"According to the Bank of Russia's updated forecast, the contraction in 2022 will be less deep than expected in April. At the same time, the impact of supply shocks may be more protracted over time," the central bank said in a report on monetary policy.

In 2022, the economy will shrink by 4-6% and by 1-4% in 2023 before returning to growth of 1.5-2.5% in 2024, the central bank said, reiterating a forecast it voiced when slashing its key interest rate to 8% in July.

The central bank also said it expected the budget rule, which caps Russia's budget spending and diverts excess oil revenues into its rainy-day fund, to be reinstated by the finance ministry from 2023 in its base case scenario.

Purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule, designed to replenish state reserves by buying FX when oil prices are high, were suspended when the rouble weakened sharply in January weeks before Feb. 24.

The new budget rule, which is yet to be revealed by the finance ministry and approved by President Vladimir Putin, is expected to put downside pressure on the rouble, which has become the world's best-performing currency this year thanks to capital control measures.

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13-08-2022 10:14:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0261

-0.0056 (-0.54%)

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EUR/USD

1.0261

-0.0056 (-0.54%)

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GBP/USD

1.2135

-0.0076 (-0.63%)

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USD/JPY

133.46

+0.46 (+0.34%)

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AUD/USD

0.7121

+0.0016 (+0.23%)

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1.2774

+0.0013 (+0.10%)

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136.93

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3.6783

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13,795.85

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7,500.89

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44.155

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 EUR/USD1.0261↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2135↑ Sell
 USD/JPY133.46↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7121↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2774↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY136.93Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9659↑ Sell
 Gold1,818.40↑ Buy
 Silver20.835↑ Buy
 Copper3.6783↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI91.88↑ Buy
 Brent Oil98.01Buy
 Natural Gas8.780↑ Buy
 US Coffee C227.53↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,776.81Sell
 S&P 5004,280.15↑ Buy
 DAX13,795.85Neutral
 FTSE 1007,500.89Neutral
 Hang Seng20,175.62↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,013.09↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,400.40↑ Sell
 BASF44.155↑ Buy
 Bayer54.15↑ Buy
 Allianz181.08↑ Sell
 Adidas173.20↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.588↑ Sell
 Siemens AG111.84↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG9.061↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,720
(0/ 0) # 1,655
SJC HCM6,660/ 6,760
(30/ 30) # 1,651
SJC Hanoi6,660/ 6,762
(30/ 30) # 1,653
SJC Danang6,660/ 6,762
(30/ 30) # 1,653
SJC Nhatrang6,660/ 6,762
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SJC Cantho6,660/ 6,762
(30/ 30) # 1,653
Cập nhật 13-08-2022 10:14:20
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,801.89+12.740.71%
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ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
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Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$91.88+0.550.60%
Brent$97.89+0.110.11%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.220,0023.530,00
EUR23.498,0024.813,92
GBP27.761,8728.945,83
JPY170,70180,72
KRW15,5018,89
Cập nhật lúc 10:07:49 13/08/2022
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