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Russian economy will not return to pre-war levels until 2030 - Scope

16 Tháng Chín 2022

BERLIN (Reuters) - Russia's economy is not likely to return to pre-war levels before the end of this decade as the Ukraine war and stricter sanctions worsen long-standing economic deficiencies, Scope Ratings said in a report seen by Reuters on Friday.

By the end of 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) will be about 8% below where output was in 2021, according to the credit rating watchdog's forecast.

The Russian economy expanded by 4.7% in 2021, according to federal statistics service Rosstat.

After 2023, potential growth will drop to 1.0-1.5% a year from the 1.5-2.0% achieved before the war, the agency said.

"The Russian government, helped by the Bank of Russia, has used windfall export revenues to mitigate the immediate domestic economic impact of the war in Ukraine and sanctions, but the longer-term outlook has worsened," said Scope analyst Levon Kameryan.

Accelerating capital outflows, limited access to Western technology and negative demographic trends will continue to hamper growth and compound the effects of the war and sanctions in the absence of any significant economic restructuring, according to the report.

About four times as much private capital - $64.2 billion - flowed out of Russia in the first quarter of 2022 alone compared with the same quarter last year, said the report.

The Scope report predicts that the private sector will withdraw more capital from Russia this year than the $152 billion pulled out in 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimea.

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29-09-2022 21:45:30 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9739

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

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EUR/USD

0.9739

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (9)

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GBP/USD

1.0988

+0.0100 (+0.91%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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USD/JPY

144.65

+0.49 (+0.34%)

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AUD/USD

0.6466

-0.0056 (-0.86%)

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Neutral

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USD/CAD

1.3729

+0.0124 (+0.91%)

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EUR/JPY

140.90

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0.9571

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1,658.40

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3.3765

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3,259.65

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 EUR/USD0.9739↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.0988↑ Buy
 USD/JPY144.65↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6466Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3729Sell
 EUR/JPY140.90↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9571↑ Buy
 Gold1,658.40↑ Buy
 Silver18.538Neutral
 Copper3.3765↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.80↑ Buy
 Brent Oil87.71↑ Buy
 Natural Gas6.689↑ Buy
 US Coffee C225.58Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,259.65Buy
 S&P 5003,630.66Buy
 DAX11,907.46↑ Buy
 FTSE 1006,842.28↑ Buy
 Hang Seng17,165.87↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,658.25↑ Buy
 IBEX 357,268.94↑ Buy
 BASF38.475Neutral
 Bayer47.34↑ Sell
 Allianz158.56↑ Buy
 Adidas123.52↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.777↑ Sell
 Siemens AG97.41Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG7.532↑ Buy
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,450/ 6,550
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