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Signs of market bottom elude investors after steep selloff

By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors are studying an array of indicators for clues on how much further a brutal slide in U.S. stocks could run, with some signs...
Signs of market bottom elude investors after steep selloff © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: "Stock Exchange" is seen over an entrance to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall St. in New York City, U.S., March 29, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors are studying an array of indicators for clues on how much further a brutal slide in U.S. stocks could run, with some signs suggesting the tumble in equities may not be over.

The S&P 500 extended its decline to nearly 20% from January’s record peak on Thursday before an end-of-week bounce, approaching the cusp of a bear market amid concerns that persistently high inflation will prompt more aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate increases that could undermine the economy. Declines have been even steeper in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which is down 24.5% year-to-date.

Despite those losses, many widely followed indicators do not yet show the pervasive panic, supercharged volatility and outright pessimism that have emerged in past market bottoms - a potentially worrisome signal for those looking to step in and buy on the cheap after the most recent selloff in stocks.

Indeed, stocks ripped higher on Friday, with some pandemic era favorites such as the ARK Innovation ETF showing double-digit percentage gains, albeit from depressed levels.

"I don’t think we are out of the woods yet on a near-term basis," said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. "That being said, investor expectations have been reset dramatically."

For instance, the Cboe Volatility Index, known as “Wall Street’s fear gauge,” now hovers around 30 compared with a long-term median of nearly 18. Past market bottoms, however, have coincided with an average level of 37, and the VIX climbed above 80 in March 2020 during a COVID-19-fueled market plunge after which the S&P 500 more than doubled from its lows on the back of unprecedented Fed stimulus.

Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) in Austin, Texas, is looking for a one-day spike to a level of at least the mid-40s as likely "where you actually see panic."

"If I don’t see panic ... it might mean we are not at the bottom yet," he said.

Graphic - Market volatility: https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/WEEKAHEAD/gdpzyazeavw/chart.png

Hackett, of Nationwide, is watching options trading for a spike in the ratio between puts, which are typically bought for downside protection, and calls.

"Most of these indicators, put/call being one of them, are already very bad historically," Hackett said. However, he said, "we haven’t seen that capitulation where everything is flashing red."

Meanwhile, analysts at BofA Global Research on Friday shared their “capitulation” checklist, which showed that while some indicators, such as investor cash amounts, have hit critical territory, others have not met levels attained during the peak of past selloffs.

“Fear & loathing suggest stocks prone to imminent bear market rally but we do not think ultimate lows have been reached,” they wrote.

Next week, investors will focus on earnings results from major retailers including Walmart (NYSE:WMT) Inc and Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) as well as a report on monthly U.S. retail sales.

Whether clear signs of a bottom emerge or not, stock sentiment could also be swayed by market expectations of how aggressively the Fed will need to raise interest rates in the remainder of the year. The central bank has already raised rates by 75 basis points since March and has signaled that a pair of 50 basis-point increases may be coming in its next two meetings.

"I think you are going to have to at least wait for two or three 50 basis-point rate hikes before you start to see any real signs of people coming back in,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management.

Rather than looking for signs of a bottom, Willie Delwiche, an investment strategist at market research firm All Star Charts, is focused on clearer indications that stocks can mount a sustained rally.

Among the factors he watches is whether the net number of 52-week highs versus lows on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq combined turns positive, from current negative levels. Another is the percentage of S&P 500 stocks making 20-day highs rising to at least 55% from less than 2% at last count.

“Too many people right now are trying to pick a bottom and that’s proving to be futile and expensive,” Delwiche said. “This is a risk-off environment ... Moving to the sidelines, letting the volatility play out, makes a lot of sense for investors.”

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25-05-2022 03:42:03 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0736

+0.0047 (+0.44%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0736

+0.0047 (+0.44%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2537

-0.0051 (-0.41%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

USD/JPY

126.83

-1.03 (-0.81%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.7107

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.2820

+0.0056 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

136.17

-0.52 (-0.38%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

EUR/CHF

1.0314

-0.0008 (-0.08%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,864.66

+16.86 (+0.91%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Silver Futures

22.090

+0.367 (+1.69%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Copper Futures

4.3113

-0.0342 (-0.79%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

110.12

-0.17 (-0.15%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Brent Oil Futures

110.87

+0.09 (+0.08%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Natural Gas Futures

8.886

+0.059 (+0.67%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

213.83

-1.92 (-0.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,647.56

-60.83 (-1.64%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

S&P 500

3,941.48

-32.27 (-0.81%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

DAX

13,919.75

-255.65 (-1.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

FTSE 100

7,484.35

-29.09 (-0.39%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Hang Seng

20,112.10

-357.96 (-1.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,768.22

-24.55 (-1.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,631.20

+5.40 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.755

-0.980 (-1.97%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Bayer AG NA

63.29

-1.18 (-1.83%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

197.86

-1.52 (-0.76%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

171.20

-4.28 (-2.44%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.496

-0.407 (-5.90%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

114.20

-2.50 (-2.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.084

+0.066 (+0.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

 EUR/USD1.0736Buy
 GBP/USD1.2537Neutral
 USD/JPY126.83Sell
 AUD/USD0.7107↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2820↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY136.17Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0314Buy
 Gold1,864.66Sell
 Silver22.090Sell
 Copper4.3113↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI110.12Buy
 Brent Oil110.87Buy
 Natural Gas8.886Sell
 US Coffee C213.83↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,647.56Neutral
 S&P 5003,941.48Neutral
 DAX13,919.75↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,484.35Sell
 Hang Seng20,112.10↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,768.22↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,631.20↑ Buy
 BASF48.755↑ Buy
 Bayer63.29Neutral
 Allianz197.86Sell
 Adidas171.20Neutral
 Lufthansa6.496↑ Buy
 Siemens AG114.20↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.084↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,900/ 6,990
(0/ 0) # 1,765
SJC HCM6,900/ 6,990
(0/ 0) # 1,764
SJC Hanoi6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
SJC Danang6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
SJC Nhatrang6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
SJC Cantho6,900/ 6,992
(0/ 0) # 1,766
Cập nhật 25-05-2022 03:42:05
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RON 95-V31.25031.870
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E5 RON 92-II29.63030.220
DO 0.05S25.55026.060
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Dầu hỏa 2-K24.40024.880
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.040,0023.350,00
EUR24.230,6125.587,89
GBP28.221,9329.425,91
JPY177,16187,56
KRW15,8619,33
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:49 24/05/2022
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