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Take Five: A central bank bonanza

30 Tháng Tư 2022
Take Five: A central bank bonanza © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve Board building on Constitution Avenue is pictured in Washington, U.S., March 27, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

(Reuters) - Some big beasts of the central banking world take centre stage over the coming week, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia holding policy meetings.

A read-out on China's economic health is due as well, while an unprecedented Russian sovereign debt default looms.

And did anyone say dollar?

Here's a look at the week ahead in markets from Tom Westbrook in Singapore, Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sujata Rao and Karin Strohecker in London.

1/THE HAWKS FLY

Increasingly hawkish Fed rhetoric has sparked nasty sell-offs in stock and bond markets, and on Wednesday we will see just how aggressive the central bank plans to get over coming months.

The Fed has flagged a 50 basis-point interest rate rise on May 4, and investors expect a hefty 240 bps of monetary tightening in 2022. Many reckon the Fed will continue to surprise on the hawkish side, as it fights to tamp down the worst inflation in four decades. [L2N2WK2GX]

Markets will also focus on the Fed's plans for its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, which it could start unwinding as early as May.

Graphic: Fed & stocks - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gkplgkbayvb/Pasted%20image%201651081055454.png

2/FOUR IN A ROW

The Bank of England's meeting, a day after the Fed, is tipped to lift interest rates for a fourth time in a row, the first time it would have done that since 1997.

BoE boss Andrew Bailey says the bank is treading a "very tight line" between curbing inflation, which at 7% is more than three times its target, and avoiding a recession.

A quarter point hike to 1% would meet a precondition for the BoE to start actively selling bonds it holds. A big question for markets is when these sales will start; estimates range from June to well into 2023.

Active bond sales would tighten monetary conditions but could hurt a faltering economy and no major central bank has yet started the process.

Graphic: Bank of England gilt holdings - https://graphics.reuters.com/BRITAIN-BOE/klvykldlzvg/chart.png

3/DOLLAR THE DESTROYER

April is said to be the cruellest month and it's certainly been so for anyone on the wrong side of the dollar trade.

A 5% rise in the dollar index, driven by safe-haven flows and an uber-hawkish Fed, has triggered big falls in the euro and yen, as well as emerging market currencies, led by the yuan.

The moves are tightening global financial conditions, which can cause economic growth to slow. Companies in Japan, Germany and elsewhere face higher import costs for dollar-priced materials and components.

Some past Fed tightening cycles weakened the U.S. currency once they kicked off. This time though, comparisons are being drawn with 1994 when 300 bps of rate rises lifted the dollar index 4.6% (following a 10.5% jump in 1993). Those moves were blamed for subsequent waves of emerging market crises.

Graphic: The unstoppable dollar? - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgvdwgxydpo/USD2904.PNG

4/CHINA TO AUSTRALIA

The yuan, down 4% this month, may have further to fall if weekend data shows Chinese factory activity still weakening.

Beijing, for now at least, seems to see the yuan as its main policy lever, much to the disappointment of stock markets which had hoped for more explicit government help or for a loosening of harsh COVID lockdown rules. China's slowdown has also applied a discount at the quarry - pushing the Aussie dollar down some 4.5% through April.

With recent data showing Australian first-quarter inflation at 20-year highs, anticipation is building that a hiking cycle could begin as soon as Tuesday. Swaps pricing and several economists reckon a 15 bps rate hike is likely.

Graphic: Yuan, Aussie tumble as growth clouds gather - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/mopanowxrva/Pasted%20image%201651136333241.png

GAS & DEFAULT

Moscow has upped the ante in its standoff with Western capitals over payments for gas shipments. It has cut gas to Poland and Bulgaria after they refused to accept its demand for payments in roubles rather than euros.

The European Commission has warned that rouble payments could breach sanctions, but officials are still struggling to clarify the European Union stance on Moscow's payments scheme.

The elephant in the room is Germany - Russian gas comprises around a third of its total gas use, so the economy could slip into recession if supplies are cut.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking down on Russia to make a payment on its sovereign bonds which had been due April 4. Failure to pay within a 30-day grace period would tip it into default.

Graphic: Russia's roubles gas payment - https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/jnvwerljnvw/graphic.jpg

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27-05-2022 14:19:45 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0749

+0.0025 (+0.23%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0749

+0.0025 (+0.23%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2624

+0.0030 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

USD/JPY

127.13

-0.01 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (3)

AUD/USD

0.7133

+0.0035 (+0.49%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.2757

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

EUR/JPY

136.65

+0.31 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

1.0317

+0.0029 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,856.99

+9.39 (+0.51%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

22.147

+0.182 (+0.83%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

4.2805

+0.0073 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

113.65

-0.44 (-0.39%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Brent Oil Futures

113.81

-0.36 (-0.32%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Natural Gas Futures

8.799

-0.010 (-0.11%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Coffee C Futures

225.78

+8.73 (+4.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,753.15

+12.84 (+0.34%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

4,057.84

+79.11 (+1.99%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

DAX

14,262.23

+30.94 (+0.22%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

7,555.53

-9.39 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Hang Seng

20,576.50

+460.30 (+2.29%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

US Small Cap 2000

1,838.24

+39.07 (+2.17%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (5)

IBEX 35

8,898.50

+9.70 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

BASF SE NA O.N.

50.825

+0.035 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

65.78

-0.12 (-0.18%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

199.17

+0.37 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

176.28

-0.48 (-0.27%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.896

+0.046 (+0.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

120.06

+1.54 (+1.30%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.332

-0.082 (-0.79%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

 EUR/USD1.0749Buy
 GBP/USD1.2624↑ Sell
 USD/JPY127.13↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7133Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2757↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY136.65↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0317↑ Buy
 Gold1,856.99↑ Buy
 Silver22.147↑ Buy
 Copper4.2805↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI113.65Sell
 Brent Oil113.81↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.799Buy
 US Coffee C225.78↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,753.15Sell
 S&P 5004,057.84↑ Sell
 DAX14,262.23Sell
 FTSE 1007,555.53↑ Sell
 Hang Seng20,576.50Neutral
 Small Cap 20001,838.24Buy
 IBEX 358,898.50↑ Sell
 BASF50.825↑ Buy
 Bayer65.78Buy
 Allianz199.17↑ Buy
 Adidas176.28Sell
 Lufthansa6.896↑ Buy
 Siemens AG120.06↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.332↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,830/ 6,940
(10/ 20) # 1,717
SJC HCM6,840/ 6,940
(10/ 10) # 1,717
SJC Hanoi6,840/ 6,942
(10/ 10) # 1,719
SJC Danang6,840/ 6,942
(10/ 10) # 1,719
SJC Nhatrang6,840/ 6,942
(10/ 10) # 1,719
SJC Cantho6,840/ 6,942
(10/ 10) # 1,719
Cập nhật 27-05-2022 14:19:49
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,854.73+1.810.10%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V31.25031.870
RON 95-III30.65031.260
E5 RON 92-II29.63030.220
DO 0.05S25.55026.060
DO 0,001S-V26.35026.870
Dầu hỏa 2-K24.40024.880
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$112.73+0.260.23%
Brent$113.90+0.540.47%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.030,0023.340,00
EUR24.263,1125.622,23
GBP28.523,9629.740,84
JPY177,60188,03
KRW15,9119,38
Cập nhật lúc 14:14:32 27/05/2022
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