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Take Five: Inflation still the name of the game

05 Tháng Tám 2022
Take Five: Inflation still the name of the game © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A shopping cart is seen in a supermarket as inflation affected consumer prices in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 10, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

(Reuters) - Latest U.S. inflation numbers are in markets' sight, especially since Federal Reserve policymakers have come out in force to correct any misconception about their determination to slay decades-high inflation with big rate hikes.

The fallout from Nancy Pelosi's high-profile visit to Taiwan will be watched closely, as will Chinese and UK data while Ukraine is hoping for a debt payment freeze from international investors.

Here's your week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Ottawa, Ira Iosebashvili in New York and Andy Bruce, Karin Strohecker, Dhara Ranasinghe and Vincent Flasseur in London.

1/ RED-HOT FOR MUCH LONGER?

Wednesday's July U.S. inflation print is shaping up as a key test for a summer rally in U.S. stocks that has lifted the S&P 500 to multi-week highs. 

The benchmark index is up 14% from its mid-June low, supported in part by expectations that the Federal Reserve will be less hawkish than previously anticipated.

Fed officials have pushed back against the idea that they will be less aggressive in a so-called dovish pivot.

Any signs that inflation is not yet peaking after the Fed's 225 bps worth of rate hikes could provide a reality check to markets hopeful of a soft landing for the economy.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast annual inflation at 8.9% in July versus 9.1% in June, which was the largest increase since 1981.

Is red-hot inflation finally cooling?: https://tmsnrt.rs/3d6bxwO

2/ TROUBLE IN THE EAST

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, means U.S.-China tensions are rising again.

To be fair, the selloff in world stocks and the Taiwan dollar as well as the rush to safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries quickly subsided.

Still, market sensitivity to political risk is high since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February. China has launched unprecedented live-fire military drills in areas that ring Taiwan following Pelosi's visit. Taiwan says this violates United Nations rules and invades its territorial space.

Scalded by Russia, investment funds have already started to tread carefully in China. No doubt, investors will remain alert to further signs of trouble in the East.

Taiwan dollar: a casualty of renewed US-China tensions: https://tmsnrt.rs/3SqcNuW

3/ CHEAP CASH

Cash is cheap in China, because of an abundance of it sloshing around amid government measures to support an economy scarred by zero-COVID policies.

The key money rate, the overnight repo rate, is languishing at a 1-1/2-year low below 1%, and data due as early as Wednesday will show the state of new loans and total money supply.

Conditions need to be easy, with the country set to miss its original growth target of 5.5%. Beijing has shifted to trying to keep economic expansion within a "reasonable range".

Thankfully, consumer price inflation has been manageable at 2.5%, well below the official 3% target, even if it is at nearly two-year highs. The latest reading is also due Wednesday.

COVID, though, has been more temperamental, with a new flare-up in the port city of Yiwu threatening further supply chain snarls.

In China, cash is still cheap: https://tmsnrt.rs/3BHfG4F

4/ RECESSION WATCH

How close is Britain to falling into recession? That's the big question ahead of economic growth figures next Friday, following dismal Bank of England forecasts.

The BoE reckons a new slump will begin at the end of this year but other top forecasters, such as the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, think it might start in the current quarter.

A darkening economy is impinging increasingly on Britain's leadership race, casting doubt on the merits of the feel-good tax-cutting pitch offered by front-runner Liz Truss, and calls for fiscal discipline from opponent Rishi Sunak.

Any nasty surprises in Friday's data - which cover monthly GDP for June and the second quarter as a whole - could further alter the tenor of the debate.

BoE rate moves: https://tmsnrt.rs/3QB6qn9

5/ SEEKING RELIEF

Holders of Ukraine's international bonds have until August 9 to vote on whether to support Kyiv's request for a two-year debt payment freeze as the country's battered economy buckles under war there now in its sixth month.

The government is facing a $1 billion bond maturing on Sept. 1 as policymakers struggle to plug a $5 billion-a-month fiscal gap with GDP expected to contract by 35-45% this year.

Meanwhile there are tentative signs that grain shipments could resume after the first vessel to leave a Ukrainian port in wartime passed through the Bosphorus Strait on Wednesday. Hopes are high that it will be the first of many to help ease a global food crisis and provide much needed FX revenue for Ukraine.

Chicago wheat futures have slipped to their lowest since early February.

Grain pain: https://tmsnrt.rs/3w35wrJ

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BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
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11-08-2022 21:15:29 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0348

+0.0051 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/USD

1.0348

+0.0051 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

GBP/USD

1.2242

+0.0017 (+0.14%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

132.35

-0.52 (-0.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.7127

+0.0050 (+0.71%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.2736

-0.0037 (-0.29%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

EUR/JPY

136.96

+0.14 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9712

+0.0009 (+0.09%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Gold Futures

1,810.45

-3.25 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

20.470

-0.272 (-1.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

3.6975

+0.0480 (+1.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

92.92

+0.99 (+1.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Brent Oil Futures

98.30

+0.90 (+0.92%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Natural Gas Futures

8.397

+0.195 (+2.38%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

US Coffee C Futures

223.43

+2.98 (+1.35%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,759.45

+10.10 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,251.70

+41.46 (+0.98%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

DAX

13,731.18

+30.25 (+0.22%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,464.62

-42.49 (-0.57%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

20,082.43

+471.59 (+2.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,994.75

+24.84 (+1.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,387.61

+34.81 (+0.42%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

BASF SE NA O.N.

43.820

-0.625 (-1.41%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

Bayer AG NA

51.65

-0.25 (-0.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

179.20

+0.70 (+0.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

173.66

+0.30 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.590

-0.021 (-0.32%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Siemens AG Class N

110.20

+1.02 (+0.93%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.954

+0.125 (+1.42%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0348↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2242Neutral
 USD/JPY132.35↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7127↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2736↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY136.96↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9712Sell
 Gold1,810.45↑ Sell
 Silver20.470↑ Sell
 Copper3.6975↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI92.92↑ Sell
 Brent Oil98.30↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.397↑ Sell
 US Coffee C223.43↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,759.45↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,251.70↑ Buy
 DAX13,731.18↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,464.62↑ Buy
 Hang Seng20,082.43↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,994.75↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,387.61Buy
 BASF43.820Neutral
 Bayer51.65↑ Buy
 Allianz179.20↑ Buy
 Adidas173.66↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.590Buy
 Siemens AG110.20↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.954↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,610/ 6,710
(10/ 10) # 1,634
SJC HCM6,620/ 6,720
(20/ 20) # 1,644
SJC Hanoi6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,646
SJC Danang6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,646
SJC Nhatrang6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,646
SJC Cantho6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,646
Cập nhật 11-08-2022 21:15:31
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,796.17+4.450.25%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
DO 0,001S-V24.88025.370
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$92.29-1.28-1.41%
Brent$97.66-1.17-1.21%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.220,0023.530,00
EUR23.475,2124.789,85
GBP27.818,8429.005,24
JPY171,29181,34
KRW15,5318,92
Cập nhật lúc 18:49:20 11/08/2022
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