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Take Five: Welcome to 2023

06 Tháng Giêng 2023
Take Five: Welcome to 2023 © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A street sign for Wall Street is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., July 19, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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LONDON (Reuters) - A potential shift by the world's most dovish major central bank, inflation pressures abating, a turn in the economic outlook and oil markets suffering their biggest tumble in decades: Welcome to 2023!

A raft of data should shed light on some of those trends and tribulations, while in the United States the earnings season begins.

Here's a look at the week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York, and Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick and Karin Strohecker in London.

1/ EARNINGS AND INFLATION

The week ahead brings a critical read into two key themes for Wall Street in 2023: the health of corporate profits and inflation.

Corporate America starts reporting fourth-quarter results and investors will be looking for signs of a potential economic slowdown filtering through to companies' bottom lines.

Friday alone sees results from banks Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C), healthcare titan UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH), asset manager BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL).

    Consensus analyst estimates call for a 1.6% decline in S&P 500 Q4 earnings versus the year-ago period, according to Refinitiv IBES. Some reckon 2023 projections are still too rosy given recession risks.

    Meanwhile, the December U.S. consumer price index is out on Thursday. Any signs that inflation continues to ease will not only reinforce the "peak rates" view, but could fuel talk that rate cuts could come later this year.

GRAPHIC: Looming earnings recession Looming earnings recession (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/THEMES/egpbyyznavq/chart.png)

2/ GAME OF CHICKEN?

Investors will have a keen eye on Tokyo's inflation numbers on Tuesday, the data point that first tipped the market to a potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy shift.

    The Tokyo data - which front-runs the national numbers, often by several weeks - surged to a four-decade high in the previous reading on Nov. 25.

    Less than a month later, the BOJ raised the tolerance ceiling for Japan's 10-year government bond yield, catching market players wrong-footed.

    The yen has strengthened to seven-month highs on rising expectations for a further hawkish shift, even as BOJ officials maintain the move was a one-off. Their next policy decision comes on Jan. 18.

    Australia's inflation data follows on Wednesday, and could be crucial for a Reserve Bank board that is finely poised between pausing rate hikes and accelerating them.

GRAPHIC: Japan's inflationary pressure (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/byvrllzqzve/chart.png)

3/ A CRUDE AWAKENING

Crude oil markets are off to a rocky start, kicking off 2023 with a near double-digit tumble in the worst start to a year in three decades. The outlook is far from certain.

Worries about a recession, especially in the world's top two consumers - the United States and China, weigh heavily.

But potential supply chain problems could provide support. Insuring vessels to ship Kazakh crude, a replacement option for Russian crude for European consumers, via the Black Sea could prove more expensive and challenging. A waiver for Russian oil shipments subject to a price cap introduced in early December runs out on Jan. 19. After that, sanctions kick in for shipments breaching regulations.

With crude oil volatility soaring, 2023 might be anything but plain sailing for producers and consumers alike.

GRAPHIC: High-octane volatility (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-OIL/klpyggxgzpg/chart.png)

4/ TROUBLE AND (INDUSTRIAL) STRIFE

Transport and public sector strikes, a softening housing market, red-hot inflation and consumers too fearful to spend. That's the backdrop for November UK economic output data on Friday, likely confirming that a lengthy recession is coming.

Following nine consecutive rate rises by the Bank of England, and more to come, British mortgage approvals sunk to their lowest level in November since the coronavirus-induced market slump of June 2020, recent data showed.

As price pressures and higher borrowing costs bite, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pledged to halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce public debt and cut health service waiting lists.

Still, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) sees high inflation persisting this year, no rate cuts until 2024 and fiscal policies becoming more austere. Barclays (LON:BARC) expects the UK economy to keep contracting until the end of the third quarter of 2023.

GRAPHIC: UK recession remains on the cards (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-ECONOMY/jnpwyyqjzpw/chart.png)

5/ GREEN SHOOTS

For the euro area at least, the first green shoots of economic hope are emerging.

Inflation is tumbling, thanks to a decline in wholesale natural gas and power prices. Gas storage tanks boast healthy inventory levels and temperatures are mild, after a vicious cold snap in early December.

Dutch natural gas futures, a benchmark for the region, have wiped out all the gains made after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February.

It takes time for declines in market prices to filter through into household bills, but signs are positive for cash-strapped consumers and businesses. Average fuel prices are down sharply from the highs of mid-2022 as well.

Economic recovery may still be a way off but the anticipated recession might not be quite as bad as expected - gas prices and data releases in coming days will no doubt be watched closely.

GRAPHIC: Filled gas coffers (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/THEMES/movakkexzva/chart.png)

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29-01-2023 23:01:13 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0869

-0.0020 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0869

-0.0020 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2399

-0.0007 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

129.85

-0.35 (-0.27%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

AUD/USD

0.7108

-0.0006 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

USD/CAD

1.3311

-0.0009 (-0.07%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/JPY

141.14

-0.65 (-0.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

EUR/CHF

1.0015

-0.0005 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,928.00

-2.00 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

23.725

-0.295 (-1.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Copper Futures

4.2300

-0.0375 (-0.88%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.38

-1.63 (-2.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Brent Oil Futures

86.40

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Natural Gas Futures

2.856

+0.008 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

169.25

+2.10 (+1.26%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,178.01

+4.03 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,070.56

+10.13 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

15,150.03

+17.18 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,765.15

+4.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

22,688.90

+122.12 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,911.46

+8.39 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

9,060.20

+24.60 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.790

+0.170 (+0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

56.28

+0.24 (+0.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

221.65

+0.05 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

148.30

+3.02 (+2.08%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.755

+0.028 (+0.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

144.50

+0.44 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.340

+0.208 (+1.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0869 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2399 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 129.85 Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.7108 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3311 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 141.14 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 1.0015 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,928.00 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 23.725 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 4.2300 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 79.38 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 86.40 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 2.856 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 169.25 Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,178.01 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,070.56 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 15,150.03 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,765.15 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 22,688.90 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,911.46 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,060.20 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 52.790 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 56.28 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 221.65 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 148.30 Sell  
    Lufthansa 9.755 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 144.50 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.340 ↑ Buy  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,720/ 6,820
(6,720/ 6,820) # 1,331
SJC HCM6,720/ 6,820
(-20/ -20) # 1,331
SJC Hanoi6,720/ 6,822
(-20/ -20) # 1,333
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SJC Nhatrang6,720/ 6,822
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Cập nhật 29-01-2023 23:01:16
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,927.97 -2.61 -0.13%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.01023.470
RON 95-III22.15022.590
E5 RON 92-II21.35021.770
DO 0.05S21.63022.060
DO 0,001S-V23.39023.850
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.80022.230
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI $79.49 0 0%
Brent $86.08 0 0%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.260,0023.630,00
EUR24.857,5526.249,47
GBP28.270,1829.475,66
JPY175,71186,02
KRW16,4320,02
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:06 29/01/2023
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