net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

'Temporary' disappears as BOJ contemplates accelerating inflation

19 Tháng Chín 2022

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) -Something has gone missing from Bank of Japan statements about elevated inflation: the word "temporary".

No longer signalling that robust price rises will be short-lived, the central bank might soon go further by saying they will become faster than expected for the rest of this year, driven in part by the yen's slide to 24-year lows, said three sources familiar with its thinking.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) still expected inflation to slow next year, but maybe not as much as previously thought, they said.

The implication is that the country's ultra-easy monetary policy, holding both short- and long-term interest rates near zero, may not last as long as forecasters believe, though the sources said that, with the economy weak, the stimulus would not be withdrawn soon.

Most of 36 economists surveyed by the think tank Japan Center for Economic Research this month expected monetary policy to remain unchanged until the end of next year.

But one of the sources, describing BOJ internal debates, said: "Companies are passing on rising costs to households at a faster-than-expected pace. Inflation may not slow much next year if consumption holds up."

Consumers' inflation expectations are also heightening, and price rises in the deflation-prone country have clearly spread to items not directly affected by rising fuel costs.

Until June, BOJ officials, making speeches and internally discussing policy, frequently described underlying rises in inflation as "temporary". But they stopped doing so in July, according to transcripts and minutes of the policy meetings.

While the speeches were public, few people, if any, noticed the tweak.

"It was probably not the best language to describe what was happening in the global and domestic inflation landscape," a second source said on the word "temporary."

Other central banks, notably the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, last year similarly said rising inflation would be only temporary. Caught off guard, now they have raised interest rates much further than they expected.

PRICE PRESSURE

Among the latest evidence in Japan of rising price pressures, annual core consumer inflation, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, hit a seven-and-a-half year high of 2.4% in July, exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for a fourth straight month.

The BOJ currently forecasts the rate will fall below 2% next year.

Nearly 80% of Japan's listed food companies have either raised prices this year or plan to do so, four times the ratio of last year, according to a survey by private research firm Teikoku Databank.

These rises affect more than 20,000 food items, which will go up by an average of 14%. One-third of the increase is scheduled to take effect in October, a sign that inflationary pressure could intensify later this year.

Most BOJ policymakers now expect core consumer inflation to reach 3% in October, with some projecting the upward pressure to persist well into next year, the sources said.

A consumer price index that excludes both fresh food and fuel costs - closely watched by the BOJ as a key barometer of domestic demand - was 1.2% higher in July than a year earlier, marking the fourth straight month of annual gains.

Some BOJ officials saw a chance of inflation as measured by that index reaching 2% in coming months, the sources said.

They predicted that the stronger price outlook would lead to an upward revision to the BOJ's inflation forecasts when the board next revises its quarterly projections in October.

The key would be whether wages would start to rise in response to the increasing cost of living. Only when wages rose faster would Japan experience a demand-driven, sustained increase in inflation that the BOJ is seeking to achieve.

CURRENCY MOVES

The role of the weakening yen, which is down nearly 20% so far this year, is becoming a focus for the BOJ.

"Currency moves are among key factors that affect the economy and prices. For the BOJ, the impact on prices warrants particular attention," a third source said, signalling that rising inflationary pressure from the weak yen would be a key topic in the bank's public communications in coming months.

There are early signs Japan is finally losing its sticky deflationary mindset. In August, more than 90% of households expected prices to increase over the following 12 months, a government survey showed, with nearly 60% projecting a rise of 5% or more.

But there is also uncertainty about Japan's growth outlook as the U.S., European and Chinese economies face headwinds.

"Cost-push pressure is heightening at a degree never seen before, prodding firms to raise prices. Some profitable firms are raising wages, too," said former BOJ board member Goushi Kataoka.

"The problem is that the global economy may enter a slump before this positive cycle gains momentum."

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
05-10-2022 16:51:53 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9923

-0.0060 (-0.60%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/USD

0.9923

-0.0060 (-0.60%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

GBP/USD

1.1389

-0.0084 (-0.73%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

144.46

+0.37 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6467

-0.0033 (-0.51%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.3590

+0.0079 (+0.58%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

143.35

-0.49 (-0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

0.9771

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,716.05

-14.45 (-0.84%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

20.593

-0.506 (-2.40%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Copper Futures

3.4545

-0.0355 (-1.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

86.06

-0.46 (-0.53%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Brent Oil Futures

91.40

-0.40 (-0.44%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Natural Gas Futures

6.752

-0.085 (-1.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

219.40

+0.10 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,443.95

-40.53 (-1.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

S&P 500

3,790.93

+112.50 (+3.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

DAX

12,545.47

-125.01 (-0.99%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

6,987.45

-99.01 (-1.40%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Hang Seng

18,087.97

+1008.46 (+5.90%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,775.77

+66.90 (+3.91%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

7,564.38

-132.22 (-1.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

41.587

-0.713 (-1.69%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Bayer AG NA

49.06

+0.41 (+0.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

165.40

-1.80 (-1.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (5)

Adidas AG

123.72

-2.48 (-1.97%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.969

-0.009 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

105.08

-1.24 (-1.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Bank AG

7.995

-0.075 (-0.93%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD0.9923↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.1389↑ Sell
 USD/JPY144.46↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6467↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3590↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY143.35↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9771↑ Buy
 Gold1,716.05↑ Sell
 Silver20.593↑ Sell
 Copper3.4545↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI86.06↑ Sell
 Brent Oil91.40Sell
 Natural Gas6.752↑ Buy
 US Coffee C219.40↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,443.95↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,790.93↑ Buy
 DAX12,545.47↑ Sell
 FTSE 1006,987.45↑ Sell
 Hang Seng18,087.97↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,775.77↑ Buy
 IBEX 357,564.38↑ Sell
 BASF41.587↑ Sell
 Bayer49.06↑ Buy
 Allianz165.40↑ Sell
 Adidas123.72↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.969↑ Buy
 Siemens AG105.08↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG7.995↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,550/ 6,630
(0/ 0) # 1,686
SJC HCM6,540/ 6,640
(0/ 0) # 1,698
SJC Hanoi6,540/ 6,642
(0/ 0) # 1,700
SJC Danang6,540/ 6,642
(0/ 0) # 1,700
SJC Nhatrang6,540/ 6,642
(0/ 0) # 1,700
SJC Cantho6,540/ 6,642
(0/ 0) # 1,700
Cập nhật 05-10-2022 16:51:56
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,709.45-16.04-0.93%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V22.12022.560
RON 95-III21.44021.860
E5 RON 92-II20.73021.140
DO 0.05S22.20022.640
DO 0,001S-V24.18024.660
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.68022.110
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$85.57+0.310.36%
Brent$91.01+0.210.23%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.710,0024.020,00
EUR23.178,6624.475,84
GBP26.582,6427.715,34
JPY161,09170,54
KRW14,5217,70
Cập nhật lúc 15:25:49 05/10/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán