net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

The 150% Energy-Price Shock Waiting for the Next UK Leader

26 Tháng Bảy 2022
The 150% Energy-Price Shock Waiting for the Next UK Leader © Reuters. The 150% Energy-Price Shock Waiting for the Next UK Leader

(Bloomberg) -- This is the first story in a six-part series on the political and economic landscape facing Britain's new prime minister.

Every UK prime minister expects to face challenges. Few would imagine that they might have to spend billions of pounds to make sure people don’t freeze in their homes during winter.

That’s the dramatic situation Boris Johnson’s successor, either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak, will face as soon as they take over in September. Energy bills are set to soar weeks later when a price cap is raised by more than 60%, taking the increase this year to about 150%.

For many, it will be too much to handle, leaving them unable to power, or heat, their homes. According to charity National Energy Action, one in three households — more than 8 million — are expected to be pushed into fuel poverty.

The energy issue is driving a broader cost-of-living crisis in the UK, where petrol and food prices are also surging, and overall inflation is heading for double digits. The government has already announced £37 billion in aid for households, but the worsening squeeze will put pressure on the new prime minister to do more. Both candidates say tackling inflation is a priority, though they have vastly different economic policies; Sunak wants fiscal prudence and Truss has promised large-scale tax cuts.

“This is going to be one of the first issues on the the agenda and I would hope in the coming weeks the candidates push quite hard on what they are really going to do in the autumn,” said Josh Buckland, a partner at energy consultant Flint Global and a former government adviser. “Pricing pressures are continuing to go up and inflation is starting to bite.”

The cost-of-living crisis is just one of the major challenges facing the next prime minister. Over the coming days, Bloomberg News will look at growing pay pressure in the public sector, the crisis facing the National Health Service, the costs of Brexit, and what happened to Johnson's election promise to “level up” deprived parts of the country.

Despite a busy inbox, there’s a particular urgency to the inflation challenge given the October pressure point. The energy-price cap is forecast to leap to a record £3,285 that month, according to Investec Bank Plc. It will rise again in January, to about £3,360 pounds. Energy consultancy Cornwall Insight Ltd. sees a similar increase.

The adjustment is based on wholesale costs, which have surged after Russia limited gas flows to Europe in retaliation for sanctions applied after the war on Ukraine. While the UK gets relatively little gas directly from Russia, the market is connected to Europe by three huge pipelines, creating a price link between the regions.

In May, government support for energy bills was doubled to £400 for every household starting in October, but spiking wholesale prices mean the support doesn’t match the scale of the problem.

If households can’t pay their bills, that’s also going to affect energy suppliers. Volatile wholesale prices are already making it more difficult for companies, and more than two dozen have gone bust in the past year.

“The stark reality is that customers will be unable to pay,” said Gemma Berwick, a senior consultant at BFY Group. “Bad debts will inevitably increase over the winter.”

Read More:

  • The Pound’s Woes Run Deep, Whether It’s Truss or Sunak in No. 10
  • UK Inflation at New 40-Year High Worsens Living Standards Crisis
  • Truss vs. Sunak: Where UK Leadership Contenders Stand on Economy

The new prime minister may also come under pressure for action in other areas, such as reducing taxes on petrol. While the average UK price has eased a little since the start of the month, it’s still up about 30% this year. Cutting green levies, which are added onto bills to pay for renewable energy policies, has been raised as a possible tool to bring down costs.

The surge in energy costs also has broader implications for the economy. It’s eating into consumer income and hurting demand, raising concern the UK could be tipped into recession. Real wages are falling and retail sales have declined for a six of the past eight months.

And energy market developments aren’t offering much hope that the squeeze will ease any time soon. Forward prices for this winter are above 400 pence a therm, more than quadruple the five-year average. Costs are expected to stay elevated until 2025-26 throughout Europe, according to ABN Ambro Bank NV.

That means throwing money at the crisis now will just be a sticking plaster, and the government will still have to come up with more in-depth changes. It set out options last week for an overhaul of the electricity market to reduce the influence of soaring gas prices and cut costs for consumers. Measures won’t be rolled out until late 2023 at the earliest.

“This winter will still be truly brutal for millions,” said Peter Smith, policy director at NEA, which estimates an average of 9,700 deaths each year are caused by cold homes. “As well as potentially needing further government action this winter, with prices likely to stay high for the foreseeable future, longer-term solutions are also needed.”

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
12-08-2022 15:41:58 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0300

-0.0018 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0300

-0.0018 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2181

-0.0032 (-0.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

133.30

+0.31 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.7123

+0.0018 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.2745

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/JPY

137.29

+0.07 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

EUR/CHF

0.9699

-0.0006 (-0.06%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,803.35

-3.85 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

20.312

-0.037 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

3.7025

-0.0040 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

94.47

+0.13 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

99.97

+0.37 (+0.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

8.689

-0.185 (-2.08%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

US Coffee C Futures

221.63

-1.90 (-0.85%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,777.45

+20.40 (+0.54%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,207.27

-2.97 (-0.07%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

DAX

13,779.66

+85.15 (+0.62%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,511.95

+46.04 (+0.62%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Hang Seng

20,163.00

+80.57 (+0.40%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

US Small Cap 2000

1,975.26

+6.01 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,446.30

+66.30 (+0.79%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

43.985

+0.560 (+1.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

53.77

+2.09 (+4.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

180.98

+1.98 (+1.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

171.68

-0.34 (-0.20%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.612

+0.086 (+1.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

112.11

+2.19 (+1.99%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.005

+0.141 (+1.59%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0300↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2181↑ Buy
 USD/JPY133.30↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7123↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2745↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY137.29Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9699Buy
 Gold1,803.35↑ Sell
 Silver20.312↑ Sell
 Copper3.7025↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI94.47↑ Buy
 Brent Oil99.97↑ Buy
 Natural Gas8.689Sell
 US Coffee C221.63↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,777.45↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,207.27Buy
 DAX13,779.66↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,511.95↑ Buy
 Hang Seng20,163.00Buy
 Small Cap 20001,975.26↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,446.30↑ Buy
 BASF43.985↑ Buy
 Bayer53.77↑ Buy
 Allianz180.98↑ Buy
 Adidas171.68Buy
 Lufthansa6.612↑ Buy
 Siemens AG112.11Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG9.005↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,720
(10/ 10) # 1,654
SJC HCM6,640/ 6,740
(20/ 20) # 1,674
SJC Hanoi6,640/ 6,742
(20/ 20) # 1,676
SJC Danang6,640/ 6,742
(20/ 20) # 1,676
SJC Nhatrang6,640/ 6,742
(20/ 20) # 1,676
SJC Cantho6,640/ 6,742
(20/ 20) # 1,676
Cập nhật 12-08-2022 15:42:00
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,788.08-1.07-0.06%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
DO 0,001S-V24.88025.370
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$93.63-0.26-0.28%
Brent$99.05-0.44-0.45%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.220,0023.530,00
EUR23.498,0024.813,92
GBP27.761,8728.945,83
JPY170,70180,72
KRW15,5018,89
Cập nhật lúc 15:30:29 12/08/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán