net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

The global recession drum beat is getting louder

29 Tháng Bảy 2022
The global recession drum beat is getting louder © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Commuters walk through the Financial District during a snow storm in Lower Manhattan, New York, January 26, 2015. REUTERS/Elizabeth Shafiroff

By Sujata Rao, Dhara Ranasinghe and Vincent Flasseur

LONDON (Reuters) - Sharply higher interest rates, red-hot inflation and a prolonged energy crisis are leading to conviction that the world economy is headed inexorably towards recession.

It's a risk U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde have acknowledged even if neither considers it a baseline scenario. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell rejects the notion..

Paul O'Connor, head of the multi-asset team at Janus Henderson, notes that since 1955 "the U.S. economy has always experienced a recession within two years from every quarter in which inflation was above 4% and unemployment was below 5%, as they are today."

The International Monetary Fund this week warned inflation and war may push the world economy to the brink of recession.

Here's what some key recession risk indicators say:

1/ OLD FAVOURITE

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has a track record of predicting recessions, especially when two-year yields rise above 10-year maturities. The 2/10s yield curve has inverted before every one of the last 10 U.S. recessions.

The yield gap between the two maturities is around -20 bps, and was recently its most inverted since 2000.

Central banks are jacking up interest rates. The Fed just delivered a second 75 basis-point increase on Wednesday to tame 9.1% inflation.

(Graphics: https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-MARKETS/RECESSIONRISK/byvrjwwmnve/chart.png)

2/ GAS-FLATION

Some investors tie global recession risks to gas supplies from Russia.

The IMF says a complete supply cut to Europe by year-end and another 30% drop in Russian oil exports would see European and U.S. growth at virtually zero.

Global growth could slow to 2% in 2023, it warns, a level effectively amounting to recession given population growth and poor countries' need for faster expansion.

European gas prices have soared 180% already this year.

An "inflationary recession" in Europe this year will ripple outward, asset manager PIMCO said, noting the United States sends a third of its exports to Europe and relies on European Union producers for 25% of its imports.

(Graphics: https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-MARKETS/RECESSIONRISK/xmpjoddjgvr/chart.png)

3/ PMI SHOCK

Purchasing Managers Indexes are reliable predictors of manufacturing, services, inventories, orders, and therefore future growth. So, the unexpected contraction in U.S. and euro zone July PMIs sparked an investor dash for the safety of bonds.

For Citi analysts, the July PMIs confirm that Germany is in recession, with the euro area not far behind.

Within global PMIs, higher inventories typically signal slower growth, especially if accompanied by a slide in new orders. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) noted this ratio hit its lowest level since May 2020 this month.

(Graphics: https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-MARKETS/RECESSIONRISK/zdpxobbanvx/chart.png)

4/ COUNTING COMMODITIES

Copper, a growth bellwether, is down 22% this year.

Dubbed "Dr Copper" because of its record as a boom-bust indicator, the metal has also seen its price ratio to safe-haven gold hit an 18-month low.

Standard Chartered said recessionary fears had caused a fall in base metal prices and it had revised down its forecasts.

Brent crude prices have also slid for two straight months.

(Graphics: https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-MARKETS/RECESSIONRISK/klvykyymwvg/chart.png)

5/ WATCH JUNK

Corporate sector stress, especially at the lower end of the credit spectrum, is another warning signal.

Financing costs for sub-investment grade, or "junk" U.S. companies stand just below 8%, having almost doubled this year, while in euro markets, yields have soared to 6.4% from 2.8% in early-2022.

(Graphics: https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-MARKETS/RECESSIONRISK/dwvkrbblxpm/chart.png)

6/ NO CONFIDENCE

Citi's Economic Surprise Index, measuring the degree to which data beats or misses forecasts, is down sharply for Europe and the United States.

Consumer confidence moves are especially noteworthy; the U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to a nearly 1-1/2 year low in July while German sentiment will hit another record low in August, a survey forecast.

"The No. 1 point is consumer confidence, reflecting worsening purchasing power," Indosuez Wealth Management CIO Vincent Manuel, said.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, currently around 50, is approaching "recession levels," he added.

(Graphics: https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-MARKETS/RECESSIONRISK/akpezwwjnvr/chart.png)

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
13-08-2022 03:17:04 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0257

-0.0060 (-0.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

EUR/USD

1.0257

-0.0060 (-0.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

GBP/USD

1.2134

-0.0077 (-0.63%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

133.51

+0.51 (+0.38%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

AUD/USD

0.7122

+0.0018 (+0.25%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.2773

+0.0013 (+0.10%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

EUR/JPY

136.93

-0.28 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/CHF

0.9662

-0.0043 (-0.44%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Gold Futures

1,816.75

+9.55 (+0.53%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

20.788

+0.439 (+2.16%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Copper Futures

3.6757

-0.0308 (-0.83%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

91.91

-2.43 (-2.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

97.93

-1.67 (-1.68%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Natural Gas Futures

8.770

-0.104 (-1.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

227.53

+3.58 (+1.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,776.81

+19.76 (+0.53%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

4,279.96

+72.69 (+1.73%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,795.85

+101.34 (+0.74%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

FTSE 100

7,500.89

+34.98 (+0.47%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

20,175.62

+93.19 (+0.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,011.65

+34.95 (+1.77%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,400.40

+20.40 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

44.155

+0.730 (+1.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Bayer AG NA

54.15

+2.47 (+4.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.08

+2.08 (+1.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Adidas AG

173.20

+1.18 (+0.69%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.588

+0.062 (+0.95%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

111.84

+1.92 (+1.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.061

+0.197 (+2.22%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0257↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2134↑ Sell
 USD/JPY133.51Buy
 AUD/USD0.7122Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2773Neutral
 EUR/JPY136.93↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9662Neutral
 Gold1,816.75↑ Sell
 Silver20.788Neutral
 Copper3.6757↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI91.91↑ Sell
 Brent Oil97.93↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.770↑ Sell
 US Coffee C227.53↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,776.81Sell
 S&P 5004,279.96↑ Buy
 DAX13,795.85Neutral
 FTSE 1007,500.89Neutral
 Hang Seng20,175.62↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,011.65↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,400.40↑ Sell
 BASF44.155↑ Buy
 Bayer54.15↑ Buy
 Allianz181.08↑ Sell
 Adidas173.20↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.588↑ Sell
 Siemens AG111.84↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG9.061↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,720
(0/ 0) # 1,655
SJC HCM6,630/ 6,730
(0/ 0) # 1,663
SJC Hanoi6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
SJC Danang6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
SJC Nhatrang6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
SJC Cantho6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
Cập nhật 13-08-2022 03:17:06
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,800.64+11.490.64%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
DO 0,001S-V24.88025.370
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$91.36+2.012.16%
Brent$97.94+0.060.06%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.220,0023.530,00
EUR23.498,0024.813,92
GBP27.761,8728.945,83
JPY170,70180,72
KRW15,5018,89
Cập nhật lúc 18:51:42 12/08/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán